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Matty H
07 April 2024 21:36:57

Until now UK still ignoring the Spring season and continuing the Autumnal weather from last year to now.  Even yesterday was not Springlike more like mild Autumnal unsettled weatrher.  Spring is the season with many variety but had delivered absolately none so far.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Disagree, George. We’ve had rain, wind, rain, rain, wind, rain, wind, wind
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Lionel Hutz
07 April 2024 22:16:33

Some very tenuous signs of mild improvement. Looks drier for the south as pressure builds across the continent. Unfortunately it then ridges up toward Greenland and plunges us into a northerly. All at range though and nothing like cross-model agreement. 

Someone will say if only it was January 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I like my cold weather but at this stage  I'll take anything that brings dryer conditions. No certainty that there's anything dryer on the way but we can but hope.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 April 2024 07:11:06
No real change in WX temps today. From yesterday:  Week 1 charts show warmth persisting only in E Europe, across Ukraine and of course the Mediterranean shores. NW Europe as a whole is mild and a little above norm. Week 2 charts look much like yesterday, freezing weather breaking up into small patches in Scandinavia, warmth moving N-wards over Spain and Ukraine, while a push from the general direction of Iceland brings cool weather to Britain and NW Europe and restores freezing weather to the Alps. For rainfall, as yesterday, week 1,  some rain persists in NW Britain and Norway; in week 2  heavy rainfall appears around the Adriatic but a great improvement for Britain with some very dry weather working in from the SW.

GFS Op - small LP running across England tomorow (Tue) 1000mb then pressure rising 1030mb France with SW-lies for Britain slowly going round to W-lies by Sat 13th. Low pressure running SE from Iceland to Baltic then turns winds to the NW briefly (not as much N-ly as shown yesterday) but HP re-establishes, this time over Britain, in place by Tue 16th and intensifying 1035mb Scotland Fri 19th before moving on to Norway Wed 24th and allowing NE-lies to affect E England with shallow LP near Denmark.

ECM - as GFS until Sat 13th. Then the LP running SE is closer, takes a swipe at NE Scotland as it goes by, more definite N-lies to follow, and pressure then rises only half-heartedly with a centre1025mb Brittany Thu 18th and W-lies for Britain.

GEFS - temp profile much as yesterday, dip to cool Wed 10th, a swift rise to mild (very mild in the S) lasting to Sun 14th when sudden decline to cool, all with good ens agreement. The mean recovers to norm but in the midst of a spread of outcomes, op mild and control cool. After the next day or so (when heavy rain in Scotland, showers in S), very little rain, perhaps a bit more in a fortnight's time in the south, but W Scotland and N Ireland only slowly become drier..
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+7
Ally Pally Snowman
08 April 2024 07:23:10
Dryer theme definitely gaining traction for the South. 🤞

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+3
scillydave
08 April 2024 10:17:12
An 'interesting' spell of weather coming up for the far Southwest and the Isles of Scilly for tonight and into tomorrow. 

Raw windspeeds on the Met Office App are currently peaking at a steady 54mph (just a touch off storm force) for the islands with considerably higher gusts.

That would be a decent storm in winter let alone now in mid Spring. I wouldn't want to be camping on the islands tonight that's for sure!

Luckily the Elm trees are not usually in leaf yet so damage should be fairly limited.

Definitely one to watch!
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
johncs2016
08 April 2024 11:38:01

An 'interesting' spell of weather coming up for the far Southwest and the Isles of Scilly for tonight and into tomorrow. 

Raw windspeeds on the Met Office App are currently peaking at a steady 54mph (just a touch off storm force) for the islands with considerably higher gusts.

That would be a decent storm in winter let alone now in mid Spring. I wouldn't want to be camping on the islands tonight that's for sure!

Luckily the Elm trees are not usually in leaf yet so damage should be fairly limited.

Definitely one to watch!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



Yea, and that storm has also been officially named as Storm Pierrick by the French Met Service and since France is part of the same storm naming system as Spain and Portugal, this is the next one on that list after Storm Olivia which gave us all of that heavy rain just recently ahead of Storm Kathleen.

We will be under a Met Office Official yellow warning for rain during tomorrow as a result and given that we've had so much rain here just lately, any further rainfall here is something which we could well do without for now.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Russwirral
08 April 2024 13:23:46
Blimey

High pressure still in the charts.. this might actually happen.

Im more excited about this than a BFTE!

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+3
scillydave
08 April 2024 13:25:13

Yea, and that storm has also been officially named as Storm Pierrick by the French Met Service and since France is part of the same storm naming system as Spain and Portugal, this is the next one on that list after Storm Olivia which gave us all of that heavy rain just recently ahead of Storm Kathleen.

We will be under a Met Office Official yellow warning for rain during tomorrow as a result and given that we've had so much rain here just lately, any further rainfall here is something which we could well do without for now.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Storm Pierrick is fast becoming a headache for the far Southwest as the strongest winds are forecast for high tide which is unfortunately a big Spring tide so coastal flooding likely to be an issue. 

If anything the wind speed forecast has increased since this morning with some models forecasting gusts north of 85mph. 
The average windspeed on Scilly according to the Met automated is now 56mph - storm 10. 

I'm surprised that there's not an Amber out yet for this given the main event is just hours away.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Saint Snow
08 April 2024 13:25:59

Blimey

High pressure still in the charts.. this might actually happen.

Im more excited about this than a BFTE!

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 




It doesn't look overly warm - pleasant in the sunshine and chilly of a night?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 April 2024 16:52:35

Storm Pierrick is fast becoming a headache for the far Southwest as the strongest winds are forecast for high tide which is unfortunately a big Spring tide so coastal flooding likely to be an issue. 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
johncs2016
08 April 2024 17:52:57

Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"

Originally Posted by: DEW 



The River Esk in East Lothian has already burst its banks in and around Musselburgh (which is just to the east of Edinburgh) so I would hate to imagine what any further rainfall during tomorrow will do, especially if we get anything like the sort of rainfall totals which the models are showing for that period.

In addition to that, I have just seen a picture of a really high tide which occurred today on the side of Newhaven Harbour (which is in the north of Edinburgh, just to the west of Leith) which is closest to the main road. That tide was so high that it actually flooded over the lower walkway on that side of the harbour with the water level almost reaching the seated areas of the benches which are located there.

Of course, those really high tides which cover that area aren't unusual and they actually occur twice a year when the New Moon or Full Moon which causes those spring tides is also relatively close to the Earth.

On this occasion, that was being caused by the same New Moon which is also responsible for today's solar eclipse over in North America (I can currently watching a Facebook livestream of that eclipse as I write) but in six month's time, the same thing will happen again except that this will be the result of a Full Moon being relatively close to the Earth.

In addition to that though, weather conditions can also have a big impact on the tides in terms of their effects and even for the highest spring tides of the year, this particular tide was almost like nothing else I had seen before.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
scillydave
08 April 2024 18:07:31

Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Wow - that would be quite something. I imagine there has been a tide guage at Portsmouth for many years and so to record the highest tide ever would be an exceptional event. 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
nsrobins
08 April 2024 19:54:47

Wow - that would be quite something. I imagine there has been a tide guage at Portsmouth for many years and so to record the highest tide ever would be an exceptional event. 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



The flood defences are in place on The Point this evening and sandbags are being distributed to properties on the Camber and down High Street. I’ll probably pop down later and take a look.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 April 2024 06:17:52

The flood defences are in place on The Point this evening and sandbags are being distributed to properties on the Camber and down High Street. I’ll probably pop down later and take a look.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



See 'current conditions' thread.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 April 2024 06:54:23
WX overall temp charts consistent with yesterday - a modest advance of warmth from the south on a broad front in week 1 already showing signs of breaking up into warmer air advancing north over Spain and Ukraine in week 2 while something cooler moves south over NW Europe - though today's chart indicates that this mostly avoids Britain to the east.  Rain in week 1 heaviest for Scotland, Norway, Alps and Syria, dry in Spain and Black Sea; in week 2 dry for Britain (exc far N), across to France and Sicily, plus the Caspian, wet for Spain and central Europe. 

GFS Op - current small LP off to Norway by tomorrow, then a week under the influence of HP centred over France with winds from the SW later W. Then LP moves in to affect mostly the N Sun 14th (990mb Shetland), never really getting away from NW Europe with winds for Britain first N-ly then NW-ly to Sun 21st after which Atlantic HP settles over W Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS, the later HP however moving in a day or two earlier, say Fri 19th.

GEFS - cool now, recovering quickly to mild (even warm in S) dropping sharply to cool Mon 15th (14th in Scotland) all with very good ens agreement. The mean recovers to norm and stays to Wed 24th as ens members increasingly disagree, by Sun 21st op and control at opposite extremes in the SE , the former rather cool and the latter rather warm, but both cool elsewhere. Once tomorrow's rain moves off, dry for several days, not much rain anyway later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Russwirral
09 April 2024 09:04:49

It doesn't look overly warm - pleasant in the sunshine and chilly of a night?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Warm wasnt the reason... Im looking for Dry.

Anything dry.  (as he looks out the window and its torrential rain... again)

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+1
Saint Snow
09 April 2024 09:08:28

Warm wasnt the reason... Im looking for Dry.

Anything dry.  (as he looks out the window and its torrential rain... again)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 




Oh, it wasn't a criticism, Russ! I'm not fussed whether it is warm or cool at this time of year. It was just an observation/question (with one eye slightly looking toward my monthly CET guess..)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
09 April 2024 10:54:43
Out to t+240 and the evolution is clear as mud...

0z ECM places the high to the NW with a low over the France/Belgium/Germany border, bringing NE'ly winds and a reverse of the norm (so the NW best; SE worst)

6z GFS retrogresses the high to the south of Greenland, with low pressure to our N bringing a chilly flow and further unsettled weather from the NW (it does, later in the run, build the high over Scotland)

0z GEM has the high to the SW, with settled conditions away from Scotland/NE England

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
09 April 2024 11:24:17
Looks like 3-4 days from late Wednesday/Thursday of decent weather with HP then turning quite cold but the promise of continued reasonably dry conditions. Looking for some warmth now for the end of the month and start of May or the wildlife, particularly early nesting birds will be suffering.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
09 April 2024 12:26:52

Looks like 3-4 days from late Wednesday/Thursday of decent weather with HP then turning quite cold but the promise of continued reasonably dry conditions. Looking for some warmth now for the end of the month and start of May or the wildlife, particularly early nesting birds will be suffering.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Can't wait for the first sight of bikini sunbathers in the park. You know Summer has arrived then
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
09 April 2024 13:03:13

Can't wait for the first sight of bikini sunbathers in the park. You know Summer has arrived then

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



"Tit Monday"

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
09 April 2024 14:33:01

Looks like 3-4 days from late Wednesday/Thursday of decent weather with HP then turning quite cold but the promise of continued reasonably dry conditions. Looking for some warmth now for the end of the month and start of May or the wildlife, particularly early nesting birds will be suffering.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 




Even the temps at the cooler end of the MO spectrum aren't anything to cause problems for wildlife at this time of year. 

Share your desire for some dry, though!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 April 2024 15:43:48

Looks like 3-4 days from late Wednesday/Thursday of decent weather with HP then turning quite cold but the promise of continued reasonably dry conditions. Looking for some warmth now for the end of the month and start of May or the wildlife, particularly early nesting birds will be suffering.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Looking for warmth? We're about 4C above the April mean!

Admittedly the real anomaly has been overnight temperatures but even daytime has been well above average.  It does look like we'll be near average over the next couple of weeks after the end of week mild spell, so there is a chance that the second half of April will be cooler than the first half 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Retron
09 April 2024 15:59:38

Looking for warmth? We're about 4C above the April mean!

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Indeed - it's been a very warm start to the month, with temperatures effortlessly in the mid to high teens down here by day, and not falling much at night. (Tonight will be the first cold night in a long time).

It's also a hell of a lot warmer than it used to be: the 61-90 April average max for Brogdale - the nearest official station to me - is 11.95C, the 91-20 average max is 14.17 - and here, at least, the average max so far is 16.7! Ridiculous, frankly, and I think people (meaning no offence) have forgotten what our weather should be like.

(As a kid in the 90s, I remember the excitement at reaching 16 for the first time, or 61 in old money - it usually happened in April, but seldom for very long).
Leysdown, north Kent
David M Porter
09 April 2024 16:09:07

Looking for warmth? We're about 4C above the April mean!

Admittedly the real anomaly has been overnight temperatures but even daytime has been well above average.  It does look like we'll be near average over the next couple of weeks after the end of week mild spell, so there is a chance that the second half of April will be cooler than the first half 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



It's been far from warm, or even mild, for most of the time over the past couple of weeks where I live.

On Friday just passed the screen behind the steering wheel in my car (I have a Seat Leon which was new in 2015) said the temperature at lunchtime that day was only 3.5C, and no wonder as it felt positively baltic here with a strong NE wind. There have been numerous other days in the past fortnight when the maximum temperature wasn not that much, if at all, higher. That is way below average for the middle of a day in the first week of April, even in Scotland.

I think much of the warmth seen recently has been mostly confined to southern areas, as precious little of it has made its way up here. It is supposed to be somewhat warmer up here towards the end of the week, but it doesn't look like lasting long if the forecast proved to be right.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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