theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2024 07:24:01
WX charts; yesterday's northward advancing warmth put into reverse. Milder weather hangs on in parts of Europe (esp France and Hungary in week 1) but is pushed back SW-wards by rather cooler air from NW Russia affecting as far W as E France. Little change for Britain, on the edge of this - just about mild for week 1, cooler for Scotland in week 2. Small amounts of rain for most of Europe in week 1, then a dramatically large and dry area over Scandinavia and the N Sea in week 2 with rain all around its edge including Ireland and (mostly) W parts of UK.

GFS Op - pressure rising over Britain from tomorrow and well established 1025 mb Thu 9th, weakening but then re-establishing over a large area of the Norwegian Sea 1030mb through to Wed 22nd. For most of this time, the HP area is large enough to determine British weather, though Atlantic troughs keep approaching Ireland and falling back; but one of these is strong enough to run SE across Cornwall 990mb Tue 14th.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Mon 13th but the trough on the following day is a much broader affair and further east, overing the whole N Sea 1005mb by Thu 16th. Any HP is further N, near Svalbard, and by no means intense (1015mb)

GEFS - temps rising to warm by Mon13th, with good ens agreement, dropping back to norm (more slowly in N & E), ens members quite well bunched but with several warm outliers. Rain at first esp in S, then dry to the 13th (some in the NE on the 10th), after which rain present in many runs, more extensive than yesterday, heaviest in W. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Matty H
06 May 2024 08:10:57
The models doing their best f#%^ up what looked like a very settled week coming up after today. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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The Dub Version
06 May 2024 11:32:55
Maybe the back loaded winter is finally turning up!
Berkshire
cultman1
06 May 2024 11:44:24
Could you elaborate what you mean by a back loaded winter? Are you implying the weather  for the week ahead is showing winter type weather? 
+1
White Meadows
06 May 2024 19:34:33

Could you elaborate what you mean by a back loaded winter? Are you implying the weather  for the week ahead is showing winter type weather? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

I think it was tongue in cheek, but a fair comment in that Met office went hard sell on a cold winter late in the season. And this ‘spring’ has been cool by day, grey and very wet. 
Just spent the weekend camping in 11 degrees and soggy conditions, just dreadful for the first week of May. 
Euro cooling continues. 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 May 2024 07:07:16
WX temps warm/mild for Britain and France in week 1 but there's a large area of well-below average temps in W Russia and this is exported to cool down all of Europe away from the Med in week 2, even if the actual freezing area decreases. Dry around the Baltic in both weeks, this extending to S Britain in week 1, but otherwise patchy rain well distributed across Europe barring S Spain.

GFS Op - HP building in from the SW reaching max extent for Britain 1025mb Thu 9th. It then retreats E-wards to become centred S Baltic, but still mostly the dominant influence for E Britain while troughs approach Ireland from the west (typically 995mb, predicted for Malin Mon 13th, Fastnet Wed 15th, Brittany Fri 17th). By Sat 18th the LP has spread to cover all of Britain as a slack feature; then HP as a brief ridge before LP south of Iceland projects a trough down the W coast Wed 22nd. For all this period HP is oscillating between N Norway and C Europe.

ECM - repeats the development of the HP to Sun 12th, then the LP near Iceland extends a trough SE-wards across central Britain, not the W, and as a persistent feature, distant and shallow at first but becoming centred 1005mb Wales Thu 16th. The HP over Scandinavia is centred further off to the NE than in GFS.

GEFS - Quite good agreement on temps throughout; increasingly warm to Mon 13th after which dropping back to norm with a few mostly warmer outliers. Dry until Mon 13th, then rain on and off, driest in the NE, chance of a heavy burst esp in the S to start with. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
sunny coast
07 May 2024 09:27:23

I think it was tongue in cheek, but a fair comment in that Met office went hard sell on a cold winter late in the season. And this ‘spring’ has been cool by day, grey and very wet. 
Just spent the weekend camping in 11 degrees and soggy conditions, just dreadful for the first week of May. 
Euro cooling continues. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Yes awful day yesterday in the SE for sure  33 mm rain here .I've camped May BH  in 1981 in the Cotswolds with overnight frost and a week prior to that a foot of snow there !
There have been some shockers this BH over the years 
johncs2016
07 May 2024 20:38:02
I see that Edinburgh is currently being modelled to finally get its first temperatures of this year of 20°C or above by this coming weekend, so that will be something to look forward to if that comes off, especially if that comes with some badly needed and very welcome sunshine.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 May 2024 07:27:30
WX temp charts show an improvement on yesterday, the mild/warm weather still in place for France and Spain in week 1, almost touching S England, but then in week 2 spreading across NW Europe to Poland, including England (Scotland also milder). Yesterday's prediction of a cooler period in week 2 now heading south along the line of the Urals. Very dry over Poland and S Baltic week 1 (also S Spain), this area moving to N Sea and N Baltic week 2. Some rain in much of NW Europe week 1, but heavy over France and the Alps week 2 also affecting S Britain at that time.

GFS Op - current HP moves to Norway Mon 13th as LP comes in from NW to SW Ireland 995 mb. This LP stays in position, filling slowly, to Thu 16th sandwiched between HP Norway and HP Azores before the areas of HP link up and the LP moves SE-wards to the Alps Tue 21st but leaving a lingering trough over England. By Fri 24th the continental end of the joint HP has moved S tp Poland and Britain is under a combined ridge.

ECM - differs from GFS after Mon 13th with HP developing not over Norway but to SE of Iceland. The Irish LP is still evident but by Sat 18th that has begun to link to LP 990mb Novaya Zemlya threatening NE-lies, and no block over Norway to prevent this.

GEFS - becoming warm by Mon 13th ca 4C above norm, then a sharp drop, but recovering to norm or a little above for the next 10 days, quite good ens agreement. Rain for most in the few days after 13th, thereafter becoming regular and persistent in the SW but occasional and in only some ens members in the NE

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Ally Pally Snowman
08 May 2024 17:11:51
Next week looking rubbish again. Big fat low wanting to make the UK it's home. Just a question of will it be warm rain or cool rain.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
09 May 2024 05:58:33

Next week looking rubbish again. Big fat low wanting to make the UK it's home. Just a question of will it be warm rain or cool rain.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



If this Low are short reset before returning to settled weather then that the best way to remove this current dirty mess haze/clouds HP out of the way.  Had much better warmer and sunnier with azure blue skies over the BH weekend under the LP.   This HP we having now is very dirty and not clean one as we should be expecting.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 May 2024 06:33:17

If this Low are short reset before returning to settled weather then that the best way to remove this current dirty mess haze/clouds HP out of the way.  Had much better warmer and sunnier with azure blue skies over the BH weekend under the LP.   This HP we having now is very dirty and not clean one as we should be expecting.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Nearly 10 hours sunshine for most of England, more in the far south, yesterday. That seems fair enough for a non-Mediterranean country.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

Sorry about the NE, Scotland and Wales though
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 May 2024 06:59:03
WX temps; forward and back. Yesterday's suggestions of warmer weather now only applying to France and Germany in week 1, though the rest of Europe incl Britain is fairly mild (as this is a weekly average, the warm weather forecast for Britain for the next few days is presumably offset by a cool down to follow). The cool influx from the north previously shown over the Urals has now transferred to the E Baltic for week 2, though not much change for Britain; any really warm weather stays along the Mediterranean fringes. Rain in week 1for France up to Norway, less heavy in Britain, very dry in Spain; in week 2 the heavier rain moves to C & E Europe with countries bordering the N Sea just a bit damp.

GFS Op - current HP moving off to Scandinavia by Mon 13th, replaced by LP from NW arriving W Ireland 990mb by that time. This moves to Scotland first deepening then filling to become a shallow trough lying N-S over Britain by Thu 16th between HPs Atlantic and Norway. The latter HP collapses and HP moves in to Britain from the SW 1020mb by Tue 21st intensifying and covering the whole country by the 23rd.

ECM - very much like GFS

GEFS - temps mild or warm to Mon 13th, then sharply dropping to norm, staying there with good ens agreement to Mon 20th, after which mean still near norm but little consensus. Dry to 13th, (11th in NW) then rain in small amounts on most days, tending to be more sporadic but occasionally heavier in NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
johncs2016
09 May 2024 07:16:42

Nearly 10 hours sunshine for most of England, more in the far south, yesterday. That seems fair enough for a non-Mediterranean country.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

Sorry about the NE, Scotland and Wales though

Originally Posted by: DEW 



We can see from those those figures why Edinburgh has now become a place where the Sun just refuses to shine these days with the sunniest place in the south of Scotland being Charterhall in the Scottish Borders with a total of just 3.7 hours of sunshine during yesterday.

Even with that though, Edinburgh came very close to getting its first 20+°C temperature of the year yesterday with a maximum temperature of 19.8°C being recorded at the botanic gardens, making that station the warmest location in the south of Scotland during yesterday (hence its presence on that list).

According to the Met Office, today's temperature is forecast to reach 19°C here in Edinburgh but we could sneak up to around 20°C or higher if it ends up being a bit warmer than expected, especially if we actually manage to get any sunshine (something which we hardly ever see these days).

Tomorrow's high is forecast to be around 21°C here in Edinburgh with Saturday's forecast maximum now been upgraded to around 23°C.

However, the BBC/Meteogroup don't have our temperatures getting as high as that. According to that forecast, the temperature on Friday and Saturday is not forecast to be any higher than around 20°C and if that is right, we might well have to wait a bit longer still for that elusive first 20+°C temperature of the year here in Edinburgh.

This shows that for here in Edinburgh at least, there is currently quite a bit of uncertainty amongst the various models, regarding just how warm the next few days are going to get in this part of the world.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Zubzero
09 May 2024 12:01:47
It still amazes me sometimes how easily it can get warm out the blue, 23c today and tomorrow then 24c Saturday & 26c Sunday, if only the reverse were ture. Seems nearly impossible to get a below average month now. Would take an impressive set up even to end up average 🤔 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 May 2024 14:46:15

It still amazes me sometimes how easily it can get warm out the blue, 23c today and tomorrow then 24c Saturday & 26c Sunday, if only the reverse were ture. Seems nearly impossible to get a below average month now. Would take an impressive set up even to end up average 🤔 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



Met Office on X now saying 25c , 26c, 27c maxes next 3 days. 27c seems a bit of a push, would be notably warm for the first half of May.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
09 May 2024 14:59:31

Met Office on X now saying 25c , 26c, 27c maxes next 3 days. 27c seems a bit of a push, would be notably warm for the first half of May.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



UKV has shown 27C on several recent updates. I'm not saying it will happen but there must be a decent chance.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1
Saint Snow
09 May 2024 15:12:29
Whereas up here, the forecast has changed over the past few days from glorious and sunny with temps up to 23c on a beautiful easterly flow from a big high centred over Norway, to positioning the high further SE to centre over Poland/southern Baltic, bringing a more southerly flow and allowing fronts to encroach from the west leading to showers here and temps maxing at 19c/20c.

🤮

I keep getting my hopes up for a high to establish itself over northern Scotland/Shetland/Faroe like in early summer 2018.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 May 2024 16:17:13

UKV has shown 27C on several recent updates. I'm not saying it will happen but there must be a decent chance.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



The longest record-breaking (or near record-breaking) spells of high temps in May have been
1st - 5th May 1990 when 27C was reached  every day somewhere in Britain (and all except May 1st >28C)
21st - 24th May 1922 when 30C was reached every day somewhere in Britain

A date record of 28C or fractionally under has been recorded for every day in May, but usually in bursts of only 2 or 3 days. Date records for Sat 11th and Sun 12th are 28.3 and 30.6C, both from 1945.

https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 

Eileen:   Very, very warm for May.
Jack:      Eighty in the shade, they say.
Eileen;    Just fancy!
Jack;       It almost looks as though the sun had really come to stay!
Both;      Oh, what very charming weather.
The Arcadians, Act II [1909]
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
09 May 2024 17:11:52
3 fine days with temps topping 24 or 25c where the cloud breaks. Certainly nothing remarkable for May and the only remarkable point is just how wet and dull spring has been on the whole. Masked by a slightly warmer than average CET. 
Still waiting for 20 degrees on the south coast on the 9th May is quite a marked change from recent years. 
Thankfully after next weeks monsoon signs look promising for decent high pressure but of course this is a long way out and subject to change back to the Siberian spring with fingers lurking near the thermostat button once again. 
Retron
09 May 2024 17:28:04
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

I think that should put paid to any talk about it having been a cold spring, or indeed a cold year. There have been only two short spells of cold weather in the 129 days we've had so far this year: around 12 days in January, and a week in April. The rest of the time has been generally above, if not well above average. And, of course, we're back in the 10% club - as in yesterday was one of the top 10% of CET maxima recorded.

May so far has been more like what you'd expect in early June.

3 more days of this to go, then it looks like getting back towards average. I still maintain that in the past 20 years a certain chunk of the population seems to have thought Britain is now a Med country!
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
09 May 2024 17:32:14
Next week does look poor though anything from 3 to 6 days of low pressure over the UK. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
09 May 2024 17:44:43

3 fine days with temps topping 24 or 25c where the cloud breaks. Certainly nothing remarkable for May and the only remarkable point is just how wet and dull spring has been on the whole. Masked by a slightly warmer than average CET. 
Still waiting for 20 degrees on the south coast on the 9th May is quite a marked change from recent years. 
Thankfully after next weeks monsoon signs look promising for decent high pressure but of course this is a long way out and subject to change back to the Siberian spring with fingers lurking near the thermostat button once again. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



We hit 22.5C on thr south coast on Tuesday. Widely into the low 20's across the southern coastal areas too! 

Today we've come close again at 19.5C here so i wouldn't be surprised if some south coast locations managed 20C. 
​​​​​
Back in April we also managed 20C on the south coast. 

 
White Meadows
09 May 2024 20:58:39
A steady mean skewed by above average nights does not excuse the lack of decent daytime temperatures since the start of spring. It’s been excessively dull and dreary with gales often making it feel much cooler, particularly in the south. 
Hopefully June will herald some proper barbecue evenings but we really shouldn’t be waiting still and saying this in mid May. 

Further reading:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/05/01/a-wet-and-dull-april/ 


 
+1
Gandalf The White
09 May 2024 23:27:13

A steady mean skewed by above average nights does not excuse the lack of decent daytime temperatures since the start of spring. It’s been excessively dull and dreary with gales often making it feel much cooler, particularly in the south. 
Hopefully June will herald some proper barbecue evenings but we really shouldn’t be waiting still and saying this in mid May. 

Further reading:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/05/01/a-wet-and-dull-april/ 


 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



That analysis says the month was 0.4c above average , with minima 0.8 above, meaning maxima averaged 0.4c below.  In other words, only very marginally cooler by day; hardly noticeable surely?

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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