theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Saint Snow
28 May 2024 10:24:42
I tend to bracket the summers of 2007-2012 into the same box marked "load of crap". 

All were characterised by a total lack of any settled & hot spells, with plenty of unsettled weather. We had several school sports days cancelled, which was bloody annoying as my two were/are both really sporty and I love seeing them win.


Anyway, current (0z) output isn't great.... but could be worse!

All three of GFS, ECM & GEM build HP to the west of us and begin to move it eastwards towards the UK.

GFS and ECM both then have a vigorous low move over the top. GFS tracks it ESE into mid-Scandinavia. ECM has it moving more SSE down the North Sea. Both scenarios bring northerlies and southwards-sinking fronts over the UK with a fair old amount of PPN and cold air. (as an aside, the northern half of Norway would get a serious dumping of late-season snow if GFS were to come off)

GEM is different and the pick. It doesn't have the low moving over the top, and so builds the HP much closer to the UK (centred just NW of Ireland). Winds NW'ly-N'ly and the air circulating round it isn't exactly warm, but should be settled. It then migrates the high eastwards to centre first over Scotland then into Scandinavia but with a secondary 'sub' centre over the North Sea. This brings easterlies. At the end, it's ridging another Atlantic HP over across Scotland, whilst a low sets up over Biscay.

Into GFS FI and it actually follows the GEM evolution of building the HP eastwards, initially over/just north of Scotland. Then it sinks right over the UK. Nice end to FI.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2024 06:59:06
WX average temp charts still showing a very warm area over the E Baltic, much as it was a week ago, but in the meantime W Europe esp France has become definitely cool. In week 2, all change; cool weather sweeps down over the Baltic and something much warmer moves N across France, even reaching S England. The Scots should keep an eye on Norway, though, bitterly cold for the time of year. Rain in week 1 mainly for Germany, Italy and points east but nowhere in Europe dry except W Iberia. In week 2 the main area moves NE-wards but smaller patches appear for S England, Switzerland and the Balkans.

GFS Op synoptics - current shallow LP over Britain takes its time to move E-wards but is in Poland by Sat 1st with HP 1030mb reaching Ireland from the W; still N/NE-lies for N Sea coasts. This HP stays in much the same place to Mon 10th, extending its influence across Britain from time to time, but then retreats to the NW allowing a rather cold N-ly drift associated with an Arctic LP which had become established over N Norway. Final charts Thu 13th show a small low 1005mb which has developed in this drift running up the Channel.

ECM synoptics - similar to GFS at first but the HP over Ireland weakens and moves west sooner, by Fri 7th, and is then only just holding off any N-ly drift. An LP develops to the SW at that time and there is a suggestion it could move along the Channel much earlier than GFS proposes.

GEFS - generally on the cool side with some rain at first, then a little warmer and drier in the first week of June with moderately good agreement. After this the ens members diverge with mean near norm, op & control both suggesting warmer in the SE  but cooler in the N. Rain increasingly probable in the 2nd week of June.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
johncs2016
29 May 2024 07:22:49

WX average temp charts still showing a very warm area over the E Baltic, much as it was a week ago, but in the meantime W Europe esp France has become definitely cool. In week 2, all change; cool weather sweeps down over the Baltic and something much warmer moves N across France, even reaching S England. The Scots should keep an eye on Norway, though, bitterly cold for the time of year. Rain in week 1 mainly for Germany, Italy and points east but nowhere in Europe dry except W Iberia. In week 2 the main area moves NE-wards but smaller patches appear for S England, Switzerland and the Balkans.

GFS Op synoptics - current shallow LP over Britain takes its time to move E-wards but is in Poland by Sat 1st with HP 1030mb reaching Ireland from the W; still N/NE-lies for N Sea coasts. This HP stays in much the same place to Mon 10th, extending its influence across Britain from time to time, but then retreats to the NW allowing a rather cold N-ly drift associated with an Arctic LP which had become established over N Norway. Final charts Thu 13th show a small low 1005mb which has developed in this drift running up the Channel.

ECM synoptics - similar to GFS at first but the HP over Ireland weakens and moves west sooner, by Fri 7th, and is then only just holding off any N-ly drift. An LP develops to the SW at that time and there is a suggestion it could move along the Channel much earlier than GFS proposes.

GEFS - generally on the cool side with some rain at first, then a little warmer and drier in the first week of June with moderately good agreement. After this the ens members diverge with mean near norm, op & control both suggesting warmer in the SE  but cooler in the N. Rain increasingly probable in the 2nd week of June.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



I can see that you've been away for a while as I'm sure that you actually meant to post that in the Model Output thread rather than here in the media thread.

Nevertheless that is perfectly understandable given that it can take a while to get out of holiday mode.🤣
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2024 08:20:46

I can see that you've been away for a while as I'm sure that you actually meant to post that in the Model Output thread rather than here in the media thread.

Nevertheless that is perfectly understandable given that it can take a while to get out of holiday mode.🤣

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Very true 😕 but I've now moved it. Thanks for pointing it out.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
29 May 2024 12:03:33
Lot's of doom & gloom in here!! Not really sure what it's been like up north or around London but the past month has been fairly decent down this way. Lot's of sunshine & warm temperatures - high teens to low twenties most of the time with a few days of mid twenties thrown in. Yes there may have been a tad more days than usual with rain falling, but this has often been overnight or early mornings, and some days just a rouge shower. The outlook continues to good as we move into June and wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 20's & low 30's in the forecast soon.
Saint Snow
29 May 2024 12:10:53

and some days just a rouge shower.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 




Is that from the Saharan sand?

😄😉
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Saint Snow
29 May 2024 12:22:34
No real change in the medium-term from both GFS and ECM. The same broad evolution is that, by Friday, high pressure builds towards and over the UK from the west, then retreats back westwards through next week as a low moves over the top of the high and sinks SSE'wards down the North Sea/Scandi, spinning fronts southwards down the UK. 

GEM has now shifted to the GFS/GEM evolution, so all three are in agreement.

GFS then builds the high in again for the following weekend, but then migrates it northwards as a big low makes a more conventional approach from the west.

GEM rather unhelpfully spins a secondary low off the main low to give us a repeat soaking.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
picturesareme
29 May 2024 12:56:18

Is that from the Saharan sand?

😄😉
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



😂 

*Rogue*
cultman1
29 May 2024 13:53:46
It does seem we are in for at best mixed weather over the next 2-3 weeks with potentially below average temperatures for the bulk of the U.K. I see various articles are appearing over the internet pertaining to a poor summer but await with interest Brian's forecast .....
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
29 May 2024 15:56:47

It does seem we are in for at best mixed weather over the next 2-3 weeks with potentially below average temperatures for the bulk of the U.K. I see various articles are appearing over the internet pertaining to a poor summer but await with interest Brian's forecast .....

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



The next week or so has reasonable agreement across GFS and ECM, beyond that things become unclear with various options on the table some of which would bring warmer air to our shores, either in a settled or unsettled pattern. With the way this whole year has gone so far, I think I know which option my money is on! 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
briggsy6
29 May 2024 20:17:50
Louise Lear promising "a week's dry weather" on the BBC earlier. Temps only reaching 20-22c though. Will these be upgraded as time goes on I wonder?
Location: Uxbridge
White Meadows
30 May 2024 05:18:37
The cool wet conditions look firmly bedding in again after a couple of warmish brighter days this weekend. That nagging wind is also making a return making it feel cooler still. 
Is June set for the bin? It certainly looks like summer buggered off early last July and nowhere in sight for the foreseeable. 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 May 2024 07:15:53
WX temp charts - W Europe warming up while E Europe & Scandinavia cooling down - by week 2 Finland quite cool but hot in S Germany and Czechia, some of the latter, albeit diminished, heading for England. Rain in week 1 for Germany, N Italy and points NE from there; in week 2 for France, England and Germany. Really dry areas limited and scattered.

GFS Op - HP slowly moving in from the west displacing the current shallow trough reaching maximum extent Mon 3rd but thereafter less persistent than shown yesterday and retreating W-wards (as ECM suggested yesterday). Pressure then remains fairly high over Britain but with LPs approaching alternately the N (Wed 5th in Norwegian Sea, Mon 10th Faeroes ) and the S (Fri 7th, Cornwall,  Wed 12th, Brittany) before retreating again. Finally a generally lower pressure from Fri 14th.

ECM - resembles GFS at first but the LP on Wed 5th is deeper and closer with brisk NW-lies for Scotland. It then links up with the LP in the S so by Sat 8th there is a trough extending down the whole E Coast.

GEM - matches ECM with a deeper LP on the 5th but then differs from both the above with HP building in strongly from the SW by Sat 8th.

GEFS - temps near norm and mainly dry (except some rain in the S at first) until Wed 5th with good agreement of ens members. Then an immediate spread of outcomes balanced between 6C above and below norm in the S but agreement on a rather cool period in the north for 4 or 5 days. Everywhere except the SW has an increasing number of runs with some rain after the 5th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Hungry Tiger
30 May 2024 11:42:34

The cool wet conditions look firmly bedding in again after a couple of warmish brighter days this weekend. That nagging wind is also making a return making it feel cooler still. 
Is June set for the bin? It certainly looks like summer buggered off early last July and nowhere in sight for the foreseeable. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I'm going for a poor summer this year. After some of the incredible hot spells in summers this 4 or 5 years a bad summer must be on the cards. There doesn't seem like any good spells on the cards this next 3 weeks.  I'd be surprised if there weren't any decent spells at all though.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
30 May 2024 11:57:43

I'm going for a poor summer this year. After some of the incredible hot spells in summers this 4 or 5 years a bad summer must be on the cards. There doesn't seem like any good spells on the cards this next 3 weeks.  I'd be surprised if there weren't any decent spells at all though.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Whether it's dry and sunny or cloudy and wet, I'd say there is a strong chance of CETs being above the 81-10 mean. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ozone_aurora
30 May 2024 12:28:11

I'm going for a poor summer this year. After some of the incredible hot spells in summers this 4 or 5 years a bad summer must be on the cards. There doesn't seem like any good spells on the cards this next 3 weeks.  I'd be surprised if there weren't any decent spells at all though.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


I could be wrong, but I'm going for a poor summer, too, August being a particularly bad month (However, I think there'll be some very warm, dry, sunny spells in September and October though).

Maybe we could have a separate thread on this - Thoughts on summer 2024.
johncs2016
30 May 2024 12:56:50

I could be wrong, but I'm going for a poor summer, too, August being a particularly bad month (However, I think there'll be some very warm, dry, sunny spells in September and October though).

Maybe we could have a separate thread on this - Thoughts on summer 2024.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



Sounds like a good idea.

We've had that sort of thing before for the winter season, so I see no reason why we can't have that for the summer as well.

As with the rest of us though, you are perfectly free to start that thread yourself if you feel that it would be a good idea to do so.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
picturesareme
30 May 2024 13:04:30

The cool wet conditions look firmly bedding in again after a couple of warmish brighter days this weekend. That nagging wind is also making a return making it feel cooler still. 
Is June set for the bin? It certainly looks like summer buggered off early last July and nowhere in sight for the foreseeable. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Cool? i mean this week has been a little unsettled but 4/7 days have reached at least 20C, and only one failed to reach 18C. For late May that's at least average perhaps a little above! 
 
Saint Snow
30 May 2024 13:24:38
Last summer was pretty poor, well July and August were at least (my pics of those two months show a lot of hoodie-wearing and one in late Aug with my eldest wearing a coat, plus lots of wet ground).

Then some pics of us paddleboarding on Ullswater in early Sept and me in shorts/t-shirt.

I think we're due a decent summer - and I'm basing this on nothing but a theory that this spring has been unusually unsettled throughout, stemming from some similarly unusual synoptics, and so I've a hunch we'll get more settled weather through the summer, especially in July & August.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hungry Tiger
30 May 2024 14:17:52

I could be wrong, but I'm going for a poor summer, too, August being a particularly bad month (However, I think there'll be some very warm, dry, sunny spells in September and October though).

Maybe we could have a separate thread on this - Thoughts on summer 2024.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



Great idea. Someone has just commenced one. I've stickied it so it doesn't disappear into the ether. It will be well used and it stops us from wandering off topic on here.    🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
cultman1
30 May 2024 14:19:57
Well this week has been well below average in Fulham with a keen cool NW wind and the weekend and early next week whilst drier is looking pretty average at best temperature wise 
Osprey
30 May 2024 14:29:11
The weather is like a ship stuck in the doldrums I'm relaxed that the "wind" will pick up soon. It usually does...
Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Rob K
30 May 2024 14:49:59
GEM once again looks the most encouraging model today (based on the 0Z run). GFS 6Z manages to keep the UK stuck in a loop of the jet pretty much constantly for the next fortnight.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
30 May 2024 14:52:59

Well this week has been well below average in Fulham with a keen cool NW wind and the weekend and early next week whilst drier is looking pretty average at best temperature wise 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



METO will say no to you and issue you well above average nonsense as they rely too much on night temps to cheat and show off UK is warming up well among other countries when in reality is not true for day time, sun hours and wetness.   With the up coming settled spell expectijng temps to be in the 20-22C range as sun now at near highest point.
+2
Saint Snow
30 May 2024 15:44:11

Great idea. Someone has just commenced one. I've stickied it so it doesn't disappear into the ether. It will be well used and it stops us from wandering off topic on here.    🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 




Can you transfer the appropriate posts to the new thread, then?

👍

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

Remove ads from site

Ads