WX temp charts put summer in Britain on hold for a week while cool/cold air spreads down the N Sea from Iceland while (
pace White Meadows) the Baltic continues warm as far north as Finland, Then a switch round in week 2, with warmth pushing north from Spain and reaching the Scottish borders, while there is something of a cold plunge into western Russia. On the dry side for England and S Scotland, even very dry near Atlantic coasts, for both weeks, with some rain both north, south and especially east of this.
GFS Op - LP near Iceland extending NW-ly influence over Britain at its peak on Wed 5th, staying around the N Sea to Fri 7th, then moving to Sweden before HP appears from SW 1025mb to cover Britain Tue 11th, and after a few days with a rather uncertain ridge, HP is back in full control by Tue 18th. Pressure is low over E Europe at first and later over C Europe.
ECM - the LP is slower to move away, still affecting Britain Mon 10th, and then the incoming HP only covers S England Thu 13th with LP 1005mb Shetland and strong W-lies between.
GEM - resembles GFS, but with a stronger HP 1030mb persisting from Tue 11th centred over N Ireland, and consequent fresh E-lies through the Channel.
GEFS - a drop to cool in all ens members on Wed 5th followed by a steady rise to norm or a little above over the next fortnight with fair agreement for England, a wider spread with some much warmer for Scotland. A few splashes of rain in the S, more likely around Sat 15th, but rather more in quantity and frequency for the NW.
A generally pleasant outlook, though I'm not as enthusiastic as APS; and a caveat that ECM has been the most accurate forecast over the last week or so.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl