WX temp charts still chopping and changing. From warm for Britain this time yesterday, cool last night, we are now back to modest warmth pushing up through W Europe in week 2 and the cold plunge restored to E Europe. But there's quite a cool week 1 for Britain to get through first with much of Iceland under freezing conditions (and the NW-lies, see below, will bring this south). Rain for C Europe and Scandinavia week 1, breaking up into distributed patches in week 2. Driest areas for SW Britain week 1, NE in week 2.
GFS Op - current HP slipping W-wards allowing LP near Iceland to develop, more so than yesterday, deepest 990mb Faeroes Wed 5th with cold N/NW-lies. Although this LP fills, it hangs around the Norwegian Sea and North Sea with a N-ly cast to the weather until Mon 10th when HP builds in from the SW. This HP is present over Britain for the following week, but from Sat 15th LP west of Ireland links with that lurking over France and becomes centred 1005mb over much of SW Britain Tue 18th.
ECM - that LP isn't merely 'around' but moves W to cover Britain with a 'cool pool' 1005mb Wed 12th, and no sign of HP from the SW. Alas, ECM has been more consistent and accurate than GFS over the last few days.
GEM - closer to GFS; the LP Wed 5th is more out to the NE and affecting Britain to a lesser extent, and then HP does build in on Mon 10th but from NW, not SW
GEFS - temps dropping from norm to cool Wed 5th, slowly recovering to norm Wed 12th with quite good ens agreement after which a spread of outcomes either side of norm. Not much rain at first in S/SW, rather more continual in N/NE, some runs showing spikes now and then anywhere esp Sat 15th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl