Hmm, a message appeared mentioning a new set of forecast data on the MetO site - it took me to here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 

Obviously I turned it on. It's impressive - my complaints about the UKV data they currently use are that a) it underestimates maximum temperatures on a consistent basis and b) it underestimates the dewpoint.

Both of those points have been adjusted in the new data, whatever it is that they're using: today's high has gone from 19 to 21, for example, and the reality was 21.5.

Old:
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met0.jpg 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Hmm, a message appeared mentioning a new set of forecast data on the MetO site - it took me to here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 

Obviously I turned it on. It's impressive - my complaints about the UKV data they currently use are that a) it underestimates maximum temperatures on a consistent basis and b) it underestimates the dewpoint.

Both of those points have been adjusted in the new data, whatever it is that they're using: today's high has gone from 19 to 21, for example, and the reality was 21.5.

Old:
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met0.jpg 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Looks an improvement basically 2 or 3c warmer. Odd though it's an "option" just make it the only data surely. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

There was a Met Office online forum last week (not sure if anyone here attended it) and this wasn't mentioned. However, I suspect they may be using data sets which compare model forecasts with outcomes to identify biases and then apply an adjustment. The reasons I wouldn't just put it live are:

1) You may be robbing Peter to pay Paul. There is always a chance that fixing one issue introduces a new one
2) The adjustments to temperature forecasts may not be good for all locations and /or in all scenarios
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Much more high pressure this morning from the big 2. But output remains volatile so no confidence. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Come to factor that we are very well over due for proper long settled spells, proper warm to hot days and importantly proper wall to wall sunny days.

It got to happen at some point much sooner, as summer season coming up, after nearly a year of unsettled, dull and bland static temps have to come to the end at some point far sooner.  We now near to the end of Spring which did not happen this year as it been Autumnal weather pattern non-stop bar few days dry less than 24 hours settled spells that won't help.  

 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

No sign of it settling down in the near future. Perhaps less wet than it has been but no long dry spell which most of the country needs. We have to remember where we are in the UK so I think the weather for the next couple of weeks looks fairly typical for early summer. I always think it's an ominous sign when western Russia starts to hot up, like it is forecast to do next week. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

This BH Sunday looks like a washout for the South  and Monday only marginally better coupled with cool temperatures running through  next week 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

Hmm, a message appeared mentioning a new set of forecast data on the MetO site - it took me to here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 

Obviously I turned it on. It's impressive - my complaints about the UKV data they currently use are that a) it underestimates maximum temperatures on a consistent basis and b) it underestimates the dewpoint.

Both of those points have been adjusted in the new data, whatever it is that they're using: today's high has gone from 19 to 21, for example, and the reality was 21.5.

Old:
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/met0.jpg 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I have been using and comparing these for a few months, I also found the temperatures better. The old model tended to underestimate greatly at 5-6 days and slowly upgrade temps ( all other things being equal) but now it's better.  Symbols still not great though for rain events though. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

I've been useing  and comparing for a few weeks now it dose seem better then the previous version. It might be using UKEP, that's in development for the 1st 36 hours?

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

Terrible output again this morning,  settled warm weather v limited over the next 2 weeks. HLB on steroids again,  could this be the year without a summer, an 80s throwback where we don't hit 30c? It will happen again at some point maybe this is the year.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I was thinking that before I saw what you have just posted. I hope not.
Furthermore, I recall back in the winter Jan/Feb? when Spain had a warm/hot spell, some were thinking "If it is this warm now, just think how hot it will be in April and May". From what I've seen, it hasn't been that hot in the Iberian peninsular this spring. So far.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Yes a poor summer would be genuinely depressing hopefully doesn't happen but output atm is a worry. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Terrible output again this morning,  settled warm weather v limited over the next 2 weeks. HLB on steroids again,  could this be the year without a summer, an 80s throwback where we don't hit 30c? It will happen again at some point maybe this is the year.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman