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Jiries
01 June 2024 10:56:30

The trouble this year has been LP has dominated much of time. Any HP has been transient (lasting a few days only) and usually centered too far out into the Atlantic allowing cloud to topple over the top and down over the UK. We need the Jet Stream to b*gger off north across Iceland and then we might just get some decent Summer weather.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 



Don't like any HP anymore, they just a pest that bring cloud and colder temperatures.  In the past model viewing I always see HP move east as default Earth circulation for N Hemisphere but now it kept reversing back as it go near to UK for some stupid reason.    It getting too difficult to get someing seasonal decent settled weather now.
 
Jiries
01 June 2024 11:02:32

Sadly the GFS 6z has the HLB back and we have a northerly flow for 2 weeks. Very cool. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  
Hungry Tiger
01 June 2024 13:37:08

There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



One or two commentators on here forecast or hinted at a poor summer about 6 weeks ago. Recent events have proved them correct. I'm now 65% sure this will be a poor to bad summer. 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


White Meadows
01 June 2024 14:23:10
Well, 3 hours just spent on the beach pretending it was the 1st of June in 15c and a marked northerly wind howling through, more veils of grey cloud spoiling what little heat the broken sunshine could offer, which lasted only a few minutes at a time. 
Locals wearing scarves, hats and winter coats!!
First day of summer on the south coast more like a crapfest. 
Ally Pally Snowman
01 June 2024 14:23:54

There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



The only saving grace is it looks like a pretty dry pattern, so if we can get some sunshine it will feel ok.🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
01 June 2024 18:55:19
For me, a lot of the current model output for the next week or so has a fair number of similarities to the set-up we had during much of the first half of June 1995. That month didn't end too badly, and that summer went on to be the best overall summer that I can recall in my part of the world.

Have faith folks! No reason atm to think this is going to be a washout.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 June 2024 19:35:55

WX charts accentuate the temp trend noted yesterday with cold weather driving south over Finland and the eastern Baltic while by week 2 warmth moves north over France and Germany, even to some extent over England esp the SE (Scotland may have to wait). Rain in week 1 for the Danube Basin up to the Baltic, in week 2 in separate patches for France, N Atlantic and Russia, touching Britain in the far SE and far NW.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



The above was what it looked like this morning, but I commented a couple of days back that the forecast was unstable.

This evening's chart just goes to prove this. The cold air from the north is now shown as pushing south across Germany and France in week 2 and there's even a blob of freezing weather over Iceland. Finland is cooler  as above but E Europe remains warm. The GEFS members from the 12z support this evolution.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
01 June 2024 19:49:40

For me, a lot of the current model output for the next week or so has a fair number of similarities to the set-up we had during much of the first half of June 1995. That month didn't end too badly, and that summer went on to be the best overall summer that I can recall in my part of the world.

Have faith folks! No reason atm to think this is going to be a washout.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Spring 1995 was good here that time i was in Surrey had couple of warm spells among with colder spells but little rain to record.  May 1995 was great month from 30C early start to 7C max mid month to 32C by end of the month.  That what Spring is all about that but with today what ever models show canont be trusted at all compare to more trusting in 1995 models runs if was existed and widh it never exist today as it bringing misery for us on most times.
Saint Snow
01 June 2024 20:43:44

One or two commentators on here forecast or hinted at a poor summer about 6 weeks ago. Recent events have proved them correct. I'm now 65% sure this will be a poor to bad summer. 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Not sure anything about summer is 'proven' on 1st June

🤨

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
cultman1
01 June 2024 20:48:16

The above was what it looked like this morning, but I commented a couple of days back that the forecast was unstable.

This evening's chart just goes to prove this. The cold air from the north is now shown as pushing south across Germany and France in week 2 and there's even a blob of freezing weather over Iceland. Finland is cooler  as above but E Europe remains warm. The GEFS members from the 12z support this evolution.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

in other words  temperatures for much of the U.K. are likely to be suppressed for early to mid June  
Ally Pally Snowman
02 June 2024 07:20:01
GFS offers some optimism once again with HP build over the UK. ECM however continues churning out some of the worst output I've ever seen for Summer. Cold and unsettled.  Genuinely depressing if it verifies. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2024 07:26:32
WX temp charts still chopping and changing. From warm for Britain this time yesterday, cool last night, we are now back to modest warmth pushing up through W Europe in week 2 and the cold plunge restored to E Europe. But there's quite a cool week 1 for Britain to get through first with much of Iceland under freezing conditions (and the NW-lies, see below, will bring this south). Rain for C Europe and Scandinavia week 1, breaking up into distributed patches in week 2. Driest areas for SW Britain week 1, NE in week 2.

GFS Op - current HP slipping W-wards allowing LP near Iceland to develop, more so than yesterday, deepest 990mb Faeroes Wed 5th with cold N/NW-lies. Although this LP fills, it hangs around the Norwegian Sea and North Sea with a N-ly cast to the weather until Mon 10th when HP builds in from the SW. This HP is present over Britain for the following week, but from Sat 15th LP west of Ireland links with that lurking over France and becomes centred 1005mb over much of SW Britain Tue 18th.

ECM - that LP isn't merely 'around' but moves W to cover Britain with a 'cool pool' 1005mb Wed 12th, and no sign of HP from the SW. Alas, ECM has been more consistent and accurate than GFS over the last few days.

GEM - closer to GFS; the LP Wed 5th is more out to the NE and affecting Britain to a lesser extent, and then HP does build in on Mon 10th but from NW, not SW

GEFS - temps dropping from norm to cool Wed 5th, slowly recovering to norm Wed 12th with quite good ens agreement after which a spread of outcomes either side of norm. Not much rain at first in S/SW, rather more continual in N/NE, some runs showing spikes now and then anywhere esp Sat 15th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
02 June 2024 08:33:09

GFS offers some optimism once again with HP build over the UK. ECM however continues churning out some of the worst output I've ever seen for Summer. Cold and unsettled.  Genuinely depressing if it verifies. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.
doctormog
02 June 2024 12:30:03

Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



The ECM 00z op run was not an outlier at any point. It’s also not that wet away from the NW
Matty H
02 June 2024 12:43:29

Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Good post. Let’s hope so 🤞 

It’s pretending to be summer here again today, but later next week looks garbage again
doctormog
02 June 2024 12:51:17
Jiries will, I’m sure, quite happily look at the ensemble data and see the ECM op run was not an outlier. I can only assume that you haven’t. 🤣

Let’s hope the GFS is closer to the final output as more weather like today’s would be lovely.
Saint Snow
02 June 2024 18:27:26
Hide behind the sofa if you open the GFS 12z. It's an absolute horror show throughout.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
02 June 2024 18:29:34
GEM better, bringing settled conditions back by next weekend.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
02 June 2024 19:09:35
Decent ECM as well tonight.  First in awhile 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
02 June 2024 22:24:12
Oh for Pete’s sake, 18z is a real stinker again for summer lovers. Back to square one with cool conditions. Top temps scraping 17c in the sun in mid June… the Baltic summer continues. 
Zubzero
03 June 2024 04:11:24

Oh for Pete’s sake, 18z is a real stinker again for summer lovers. Back to square one with cool conditions. Top temps scraping 17c in the sun in mid June… the Baltic summer continues. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



We just had the warmest Spring on record, and we are on the 3rd day of summer, hardly baltic. 
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2024 05:56:29
Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2024 07:10:38
WX temp charts put summer in Britain on hold for a week while cool/cold air spreads down the N Sea from Iceland while (pace White Meadows) the Baltic continues warm as far north as  Finland, Then a switch round in week 2, with warmth pushing north from Spain and reaching the Scottish borders, while there is something of a cold plunge into western Russia. On the dry side for England and S Scotland, even very dry near Atlantic coasts, for both weeks, with some rain both north, south and especially east of this.

GFS Op - LP near Iceland extending NW-ly influence over Britain at its peak on Wed 5th, staying around the N Sea to Fri 7th, then moving to Sweden before HP appears from SW 1025mb to cover Britain Tue 11th, and after a few days with a rather uncertain ridge, HP is back in full control by Tue 18th. Pressure is low over E Europe at first and later over C Europe.

ECM - the LP is slower to move away, still affecting Britain Mon 10th, and then the incoming HP only covers S England Thu 13th with LP 1005mb Shetland and strong W-lies between. 

GEM - resembles GFS, but with a stronger HP 1030mb persisting from Tue 11th centred over N Ireland, and consequent fresh E-lies through the Channel.

GEFS - a drop to cool in all ens members on Wed 5th followed by a steady rise to norm or a little above over the next fortnight with fair agreement for England, a wider spread with some much warmer for Scotland. A few splashes of rain in the S, more likely around Sat 15th, but rather more in quantity and frequency for the NW.

A generally pleasant outlook, though I'm not as enthusiastic as APS; and a caveat that ECM has been the most accurate forecast over the last week or so.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2024 07:59:08

Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Certainly encouraging but the Ops is at the higher end of the GFS runs. The overall pattern is for a build of high pressure to the south west rather than the south at the moment.  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
UncleAlbert
03 June 2024 08:05:39

Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




​​​​​​Op still in the minority though, but it does have some support.  Also a good solid warming trend with time.

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