WX temp charts are a disappointment this morning. The week 1 cold plunge from Iceland affecting mainly countries around the North Sea (i.e. including Britain) is still there, but temperatures fail to recover in W Europe in week 2. The warmth from the south 'pencilled in' yesterday does not materialise; there is only patchy warmth over France and it does not reach Britain, while the Baltic states regain their sweltering early summer. Rain in week 1 for Scotland and Norway, and in a band from C to E Europe, though dry-ish for England; these areas of rain persist into week 2.
GFS Op - LP near Faeroes slow to break up and move to Norway which it does by Mon 10th, in the meantime generating cool W/NW-lies for Britain. A 'blink-and-you've-missed-it' HP is rapidly followed by a couple of shallow LPs from the Atlantic; 1005mb Scotland Wed 12th, 1005mb again Irish Sea Sat 15th. The latter slowly moves N-wards and a more convincing ridge of HP moves into W Britain from the SW from Wed 19th.
ECM - resembles GFS though the brief HP lasts two days rather than one. Noted that yesterday's 12z kept this HP going but this morning's 00z, like GFS, brings in an Atlantic LP for Sat 15th.
GEM - resembles GFS at first. The 'shallow LPs' appear as a more extensive (and cooler) trough from Iceland which slowly moves away to the NE. HP is nudging in by Sat 15th but remaining some distance west of Ireland, so still cool for most.
GEFS - Temps now down to cool and staying somewhat below norm everywhere until about Thu 13th with quite good agreement of ens members, then a greater spread but still not far from norm for the following week. Dry in the south for week 1, a little rain in the north; then a bit more rain everywhere with one or two runs suggesting heavy falls. Always driest in the SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl