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David M Porter
07 June 2024 19:37:12

Not so. I've posted this before and will continue to do so whenever people say it wasn't a very warm spring, maxima wise!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

There were only two periods in spring where maxima weren't above, or much above average - the 2nd half of April, and the 2nd half of May. Note how often we were in the top 10% ever recorded... and compare that with the fact that no days entered the bottom 10%.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Hi Darren, thanks for that. 🙂

Much of what I have described above are my own recollections of the weather during the spring that I observed in my own area. My own memory of the spring on my own area was that unlike the March/April period in numerous recent years, there was an almost complete absence of any notably warm & sunny spells in my own area at any time during those two months (April was a bit warmer later on once the weather improved as I said previously), with the first two weeks of April being the worst spell of spring weather that I can recall in many years with almost winter-like temperatures. May was a different story for much of the time, and I and others have said.

FWIW, I don't in any way disagree that there is a big difference between my recollections of the weather and temperatures I experienced in my own locality throughout the spring, and the season stats for the UK in general terms.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
cultman1
07 June 2024 19:53:11
With today's temperatures here in Fulham especially this evening well below what they should be for this time of the year I am seriously concened that the next 3-5 weeks are following  the same vein temperature wise?
What on earth is going on?
I appreciate it is not uncommon to have spells of cooler weather in June but the longevity of this projected below average spell is is quite concerning especially with The Met Office predicting this to last well into July?
doctormog
07 June 2024 20:08:24
Out of curiosity, how do these maxima compare with what you would expect in early June? https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=euro&LAND=UK®ION=0003&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=24&TYP=tmax&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&DATE=--&CEL=C&SI=mph Â 

IMBY posts are welcome for this. Here the max was a degree or so below the LTA.
Tim A
07 June 2024 20:21:31
Pretty average today , 17.0c in my garden with some sunshine and periods of cloud. 
Might need the heating on in the next few days to maintain 19c but that has always been the case in early June.  Could obviously be much nicer and warmer but the current weather and forecast is nothing remarkable , just typical of the variation of weather  you get at this time of year. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2024 20:30:51
20c here today with plenty of sun so not to bad , the last few days haven't been to bad here sunny mornings cloudy afternoons but chilly.

As for the outlook omega block in the wrong place again just like last July.  Could last 3 to 6 weeks. Grim
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
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08 June 2024 07:12:05
WX temps - another day, another disappointment. Week 1 as before generally cool for NW Europe, from the Pyrenees to the Baltic but unlike yesterday's forecast, the warmth not spreading north, but even cooler for France, Germany and Scandinavia. Little change for Britain. Rain in most places in Europe at all times, heaviest in the Alps both weeks, driest in Spain in week 2.

GFS Op - as previously, LP in Norwegian Sea moving slowly E to Norway but leaving N-lies for Britain to Tue 11th. Brief respite before new LP arrives from the W Thu 13th, settling over NE Scotland 990mb Sat 15th. As this fills, a new trough appears in its circulation, to Wales 1005mb Mon 17th. HP then moves in gradually from the SW and becomes dominant from Fri 21st but always centred SW Ireland 1030mb with NW-lies for much of Britain. Pressure over Europe something of a jumble, but never very high, typical value 1010mb throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS, though the LP is still over N Ireland Sat 15th and the 'new trough' is no more than the old one persisting.

GEM - begins to differ from GFS after 13th, the LP then arriving is shallower but covers all of Britain. This is followed by a deeper LP which however stays out near Rockall from Mon 17th.

GEFS - cool, or in the first week very cool, throughout, only just approaching norm Sun 23rd in the S, a few days earlier in the N, with agreement from most ens members. Small amounts of rain widely in most runs at any time; but drier in the SW at first and some heavier falls for Scotland around Sat 15th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
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08 June 2024 08:55:54
Going on a road trip around the North of Ireland from next Saturday for 8 days.  I wasn't expecting hot and sunny but I'm also really hoping this morning's ECM Ops run doesn't pan out! 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Ally Pally Snowman
08 June 2024 09:02:19

Going on a road trip around the North of Ireland from next Saturday for 8 days.  I wasn't expecting hot and sunny but I'm also really hoping this morning's ECM Ops run doesn't pan out! 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



The next 10 days look guaranteed awful. GFS offers another glimmer day 11. It really does remind me of last July.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
08 June 2024 09:49:39

The next 10 days look guaranteed awful. GFS offers another glimmer day 11. It really does remind me of last July.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



The difference was we had a fantastic June. So far this June has been complete and utter turd
Ally Pally Snowman
08 June 2024 10:19:55

The difference was we had a fantastic June. So far this June has been complete and utter turd

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



We could be a month ahead in the cycle,  we had the warmest ever September with a significant heatwave last year. So maybe August could be a scorcher this year?

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ozone_aurora
08 June 2024 10:31:07

The difference was we had a fantastic June. So far this June has been complete and utter turd

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Absolutely agree.

Maybe September 2024 will be a good month and even October. I have very little confidence that July and August will be good this year (maybe an odd 1 day heatwave perhaps, but probably be followed by news breaking downpours).
johncs2016
08 June 2024 14:06:09

The difference was we had a fantastic June. So far this June has been complete and utter turd

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



This would have been a decent June here if it had only been a bit warmer.

It's been dry until now and our sunshine totals have been a bit better than of late during this month.

However, this month is running cooler than average up until now and because of that, I have to say that until now, this hasn't been much of a summer because in order for me to be able to say otherwise, it needs to be warmer than average.

Looking at the latest model output, I'm still not seeing any signs of any proper summer warmth on the horizon.

Even Spain and Portugal looks set to cool down a bit and given that we often rely on hot air coming from there to deliver any summer heatwaves which we get here in the UK, that isn't exactly boding too well as we're less likely to get that warmth if there isn't going to be much hot air to our immediate south to be able to tap into.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
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08 June 2024 15:30:55

Absolutely agree.

Maybe September 2024 will be a good month and even October. I have very little confidence that July and August will be good this year (maybe an odd 1 day heatwave perhaps, but probably be followed by news breaking downpours).

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



As soon as the schools go back, you mean.

As ever ... better than any computer model.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hungry Tiger
08 June 2024 20:01:24

This would have been a decent June here if it had only been a bit warmer.

It's been dry until now and our sunshine totals have been a bit better than of late during this month.

However, this month is running cooler than average up until now and because of that, I have to say that until now, this hasn't been much of a summer because in order for me to be able to say otherwise, it needs to be warmer than average.

Looking at the latest model output, I'm still not seeing any signs of any proper summer warmth on the horizon.

Even Spain and Portugal looks set to cool down a bit and given that we often rely on hot air coming from there to deliver any summer heatwaves which we get here in the UK, that isn't exactly boding too well as we're less likely to get that warmth if there isn't going to be much hot air to our immediate south to be able to tap into.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Excellent points there. Loads of forecast models aren't forecasting anything decent. I'm almost prepared to write this summer off already. However,  something could turn up unexpectedly. It's happened before.
Whatever,  I do feel something nice will materialise late September, October.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
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Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


johncs2016
08 June 2024 20:56:43

Excellent points there. Loads of forecast models aren't forecasting anything decent. I'm almost prepared to write this summer off already. However,  something could turn up unexpectedly. It's happened before.
Whatever,  I do feel something nice will materialise late September, October.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



That would just be like the thing of course because by that time, I will then just be wanting to get on with autumn so it will be a bit too late by then in my books.

Having said that, the current pattern isn't actually all that dissimilar to the pattern of June 2013 when high pressure to our west led to a cooler than average month overall.

Yet, we still managed to get a decent summer overall in that year, so you just never know what might happen.

For that reason, I'm not completely writing this summer off just yet but we are in completely different times now, so just because something happened in 2013 from a similar situation doesn't necessarily mean that the same thing will happen this year as well.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
NMA
  • NMA
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09 June 2024 05:30:27

Excellent points there. Loads of forecast models aren't forecasting anything decent. I'm almost prepared to write this summer off already. However, something could turn up unexpectedly. It's happened before.
Whatever, I do feel something nice will materialise late September, October.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


It is almost sounding like a Wilkins Micawber summer. Something better will come along perhaps.
 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Col
  • Col
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09 June 2024 06:08:38

Excellent points there. Loads of forecast models aren't forecasting anything decent. I'm almost prepared to write this summer off already. However,  something could turn up unexpectedly. It's happened before.
Whatever,  I do feel something nice will materialise late September, October.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


No, don't do that. That's the equivalent of writing off the entire winter after a mild first week of December. And no one ever does that.....
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2024 07:21:47
James Peacock going for a case of worse before it's gets better. Angular momentum on the move which should/hopefully see improvements late June.

https://x.com/peacockreports 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
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09 June 2024 07:34:14
WX temps marginally more summery than yesterday, but not at first; the whole of NW Europe cool, this centred on France which is 4-6C below norm. Warmth spreads back from the south in week 2,  but still no better than norm up to S England, the main recovery being in E Europe. Rain in two areas in week 1 (i) Alps and Danube Basin (ii) Britain and S Norway. In week 2, Britain's wet summer continues with the focus here and in France and Germany.

GFS Op - current LP moving to Scandinavia by Tue 11th but with N-lies lingering behind. HP for one day only, Wed 12th,A before trough moves in from the Atlantic, deepens and covers Britain 995mb by Sat 15th and, while filling a little, persists to Sat 22nd. It then moves off NE-wards, and the final chart is almost the same as that for the 11th.

ECM - As GFS; from Sat 15th the LP while still covering Britain has a larger extension across the N Sea

GEM - the least pessimistic of the big three with Britain under a col from Sat 15th, the trough splitting into two centres, one near Rockall and the other over France

GFS - cool for a week and no better than norm thereafter, and agreed by most ens members. Rain in moderate amounts in most places at any time, indications of a drier period for N & W for a couple of days around the 12th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2024 07:48:45

James Peacock going for a case of worse before it's gets better. Angular momentum on the move which should/hopefully see improvements late June.

https://x.com/peacockreports 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




Met Office seeing the glimmer of settled weather in its outlook also.🤞

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk&ved=2ahUKEwj5qvmrgs6GAxVlR0EAHbeBDNAQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1nJu08txjdxEn5YWxs-0T2 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
09 June 2024 07:52:55
The end of the coming week is looking pretty dreadful with a big trough trapped over the country again. 

Having said that it is currently beautiful with clear blue skies but I suspect the usual pattern of the last few days of cloud building as soon as the sun gets higher in the sky will continue, as there is an awful lot of moisture around still. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
09 June 2024 08:38:14

That would just be like the thing of course because by that time, I will then just be wanting to get on with autumn so it will be a bit too late by then in my books.

Having said that, the current pattern isn't actually all that dissimilar to the pattern of June 2013 when high pressure to our west led to a cooler than average month overall.

Yet, we still managed to get a decent summer overall in that year, so you just never know what might happen.

For that reason, I'm not completely writing this summer off just yet but we are in completely different times now, so just because something happened in 2013 from a similar situation doesn't necessarily mean that the same thing will happen this year as well.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



2013 was the first decent summer in many parts of the UK since 2006, after six poor/very poor ones on the bounce. Mind you, it would have been very hard to have had one that was worse than 2012. That really is the worst summer I can clearly remember in the 44-and-a-half years of my life thus far.

Going back further, I seem to recall that summer 1990 started with a rather disappointing June and early July wasn't great either. However, things changed notably in mid July with a much better second half of the month, and the then hottest day on record in the UK was recorded in the early days of August. I don't think the remainder of August was too bad either for the most part, although not quite as warm.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Saint Snow
09 June 2024 09:25:26

2013 was the first decent summer in many parts of the UK since 2006, after six poor/very poor ones on the bounce.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Even that 2013 summer essentially ended around the last week of July.

(But we had a great spell in the July)

2014 was a similar pattern.

Martin
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A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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ozone_aurora
09 June 2024 09:47:07

Even that 2013 summer essentially ended around the last week of July.

(But we had a great spell in the July)

2014 was a similar pattern.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


For August 2013 - Not here in Lowestoft. Although not as good as July, it still saw a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather. It was a pleasant month overall.

For August 2014 - That was a different story for Lowestoft. The main 2014 summer did come to an abrupt end by 10 August, and the rest of the month was cool, unsettled and wet. The hurricane Bertha was a big game changer in this, changing the jet stream and setting off this distinctly autumnal trend.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 June 2024 09:55:12

For 2013 - Not here in Lowestoft. Although not as good as July, it still saw a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather. It was a pleasant month overall.

For 2014 - That was a different story for Lowestoft. The main 2014 summer did come to an abrupt end by 10 August, and the rest of the month was cool, unsettled and wet. The hurricane Bertha was a big game changer in this, changing the jetstream and setting off this distinctly autumnal trend.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



I have noticed that the Suffolk and Essex coasts have their own micro climate in mid to late summer. Typically when the weather turns crap during the school holidays in the UK, these parts hang on to mainly dry, warm weather with plenty of sunshine. Probably the place to go for a sunny UK holiday. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

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