WX temps for week 1 show NW Europe below average, as before, but the cool weather is pushed back northwards on a broad front in week 2. For Britain this probably means back to norm; the Baltic benefits rather more. Rain in week 1 for Britain and the nearby continent. In week 2 this splits into two, one area for Ireland and the Atlantic, the other for the Alps and E Europe, N Sea coasts rather dry.
GFS Op - brief window of HP before Trough from Atlantic settles over Scotland 995mb Fri 14th. This continues to affect Britain until Wed 19th, pulling in air from the N more often than not, before resolving ca 21st into a zonal pattern with fine weather for the SE, unsettled in the NW, winds from W and later from SW. HP then tries to establish mostly to the E of Britain from about Mon 24th but gets disrupted by troughs reaching Ireland.
ECM - like GFS, though the zonal pattern from Fri 21st has LP closer to N Scotland
GEM - resembles GFS, later charts give HP from 24th a higher chance of establishing
GEFS - cool now, temps regain norm from about Mon 17th with good ens agreement; staying near norm with less good agreement to Mon 24th, then diverging but with an increased number of runs forecasting warmer weather. Modest amounts of rain at any time, but in the W persistent and sometimes quite heavy.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl