WX temp charts - W Europe warming up while E Europe & Scandinavia cooling down - by week 2 Finland quite cool but hot in S Germany and Czechia, some of the latter, albeit diminished, heading for England. Rain in week 1 for Germany, N Italy and points NE from there; in week 2 for France, England and Germany. Really dry areas limited and scattered.
GFS Op - HP slowly moving in from the west displacing the current shallow trough reaching maximum extent Mon 3rd but thereafter less persistent than shown yesterday and retreating W-wards (as ECM suggested yesterday). Pressure then remains fairly high over Britain but with LPs approaching alternately the N (Wed 5th in Norwegian Sea, Mon 10th Faeroes ) and the S (Fri 7th, Cornwall, Wed 12th, Brittany) before retreating again. Finally a generally lower pressure from Fri 14th.
ECM - resembles GFS at first but the LP on Wed 5th is deeper and closer with brisk NW-lies for Scotland. It then links up with the LP in the S so by Sat 8th there is a trough extending down the whole E Coast.
GEM - matches ECM with a deeper LP on the 5th but then differs from both the above with HP building in strongly from the SW by Sat 8th.
GEFS - temps near norm and mainly dry (except some rain in the S at first) until Wed 5th with good agreement of ens members. Then an immediate spread of outcomes balanced between 6C above and below norm in the S but agreement on a rather cool period in the north for 4 or 5 days. Everywhere except the SW has an increasing number of runs with some rain after the 5th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl