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Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, June 1, 2024 7:07:49 AM
Very optimistic GFS this morning sadly other models less so. Basically GFS has less HLB so the high builds over the UK. It can be very good at spotting pattern changes before the other  models. But feels like a long shot atm.

GFS 168h = Summer 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 


ECM 168h = Autumn
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 1, 2024 7:11:04 AM
WX charts accentuate the temp trend noted yesterday with cold weather driving south over Finland and the eastern Baltic while by week 2 warmth moves north over France and Germany, even to some extent over England esp the SE (Scotland may have to wait). Rain in week 1 for the Danube Basin up to the Baltic, in week 2 in separate patches for France, N Atlantic and Russia, touching Britain in the far SE and far NW.

GFS Op - HP nudging in from the west for a few days but retreating again as LP near Faeroes brings in NW-lies Wed 5th, HP then re-asserts itself to cover Britain 1025mb Sat 8th. This moves eastwards and weakens as a trough develops near Rockall and as the following week progresses the pattern is for fine weather in the SE, unsettled in the NW, but with the trough dipping further south and linking with slack LP over France at times.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Wed 5th, but HP then stays out to the SW, and depressingly the Faeroese LP drops southwards, filling, and lies off the east coast of Scotland 1000mb Sun 9th.

GEM - agrees with ECM but also throws in an extra LP approaching from the SW Mon 10th.

GEFS - temps near norm now, cool Wed 5th for a few days esp in NE, after which ens agreement breaks up but most runs near norm (operational run is a wildly hot outlier on Wed 12th). Rain increasingly likely from Fri 7th in SE, from Wed 5th in NW, in small amounts at first.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
briggsy6
Saturday, June 1, 2024 9:40:15 AM
The trouble this year has been LP has dominated much of time. Any HP has been transient (lasting a few days only) and usually centered too far out into the Atlantic allowing cloud to topple over the top and down over the UK. We need the Jet Stream to b*gger off north across Iceland and then we might just get some decent Summer weather.
Location: Uxbridge
cultman1
Saturday, June 1, 2024 10:36:14 AM

The trouble this year has been LP has dominated much of time. Any HP has been transient (lasting a few days only) and usually centered too far out into the Atlantic allowing cloud to topple over the top and down over the UK. We need the Jet Stream to b*gger off north across Iceland and then we might just get some decent Summer weather.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

unlikely in my opinion for at least the next couple of weeks especially in the East 
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, June 1, 2024 10:56:12 AM
Sadly the GFS 6z has the HLB back and we have a northerly flow for 2 weeks. Very cool. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
Saturday, June 1, 2024 10:56:30 AM

The trouble this year has been LP has dominated much of time. Any HP has been transient (lasting a few days only) and usually centered too far out into the Atlantic allowing cloud to topple over the top and down over the UK. We need the Jet Stream to b*gger off north across Iceland and then we might just get some decent Summer weather.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 



Don't like any HP anymore, they just a pest that bring cloud and colder temperatures.  In the past model viewing I always see HP move east as default Earth circulation for N Hemisphere but now it kept reversing back as it go near to UK for some stupid reason.    It getting too difficult to get someing seasonal decent settled weather now.
 
Jiries
Saturday, June 1, 2024 11:02:32 AM

Sadly the GFS 6z has the HLB back and we have a northerly flow for 2 weeks. Very cool. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  
Hungry Tiger
Saturday, June 1, 2024 1:37:08 PM

There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



One or two commentators on here forecast or hinted at a poor summer about 6 weeks ago. Recent events have proved them correct. I'm now 65% sure this will be a poor to bad summer. 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
White Meadows
Saturday, June 1, 2024 2:23:10 PM
Well, 3 hours just spent on the beach pretending it was the 1st of June in 15c and a marked northerly wind howling through, more veils of grey cloud spoiling what little heat the broken sunshine could offer, which lasted only a few minutes at a time. 
Locals wearing scarves, hats and winter coats!!
First day of summer on the south coast more like a crapfest. 
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, June 1, 2024 2:23:54 PM

There must b a serious issue about why HP kept taking unwanted resident over Greenland instead of our lattitude to Azores as it should be due to GW, normally HP belt are in the Azores levels and with GW had shift this too far north than our lattitude.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



The only saving grace is it looks like a pretty dry pattern, so if we can get some sunshine it will feel ok.🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
David M Porter
Saturday, June 1, 2024 6:55:19 PM
For me, a lot of the current model output for the next week or so has a fair number of similarities to the set-up we had during much of the first half of June 1995. That month didn't end too badly, and that summer went on to be the best overall summer that I can recall in my part of the world.

Have faith folks! No reason atm to think this is going to be a washout.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 1, 2024 7:35:55 PM

WX charts accentuate the temp trend noted yesterday with cold weather driving south over Finland and the eastern Baltic while by week 2 warmth moves north over France and Germany, even to some extent over England esp the SE (Scotland may have to wait). Rain in week 1 for the Danube Basin up to the Baltic, in week 2 in separate patches for France, N Atlantic and Russia, touching Britain in the far SE and far NW.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



The above was what it looked like this morning, but I commented a couple of days back that the forecast was unstable.

This evening's chart just goes to prove this. The cold air from the north is now shown as pushing south across Germany and France in week 2 and there's even a blob of freezing weather over Iceland. Finland is cooler  as above but E Europe remains warm. The GEFS members from the 12z support this evolution.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
Saturday, June 1, 2024 7:49:40 PM

For me, a lot of the current model output for the next week or so has a fair number of similarities to the set-up we had during much of the first half of June 1995. That month didn't end too badly, and that summer went on to be the best overall summer that I can recall in my part of the world.

Have faith folks! No reason atm to think this is going to be a washout.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Spring 1995 was good here that time i was in Surrey had couple of warm spells among with colder spells but little rain to record.  May 1995 was great month from 30C early start to 7C max mid month to 32C by end of the month.  That what Spring is all about that but with today what ever models show canont be trusted at all compare to more trusting in 1995 models runs if was existed and widh it never exist today as it bringing misery for us on most times.
Saint Snow
Saturday, June 1, 2024 8:43:44 PM

One or two commentators on here forecast or hinted at a poor summer about 6 weeks ago. Recent events have proved them correct. I'm now 65% sure this will be a poor to bad summer. 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Not sure anything about summer is 'proven' on 1st June

🤨

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
cultman1
Saturday, June 1, 2024 8:48:16 PM

The above was what it looked like this morning, but I commented a couple of days back that the forecast was unstable.

This evening's chart just goes to prove this. The cold air from the north is now shown as pushing south across Germany and France in week 2 and there's even a blob of freezing weather over Iceland. Finland is cooler  as above but E Europe remains warm. The GEFS members from the 12z support this evolution.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

in other words  temperatures for much of the U.K. are likely to be suppressed for early to mid June  
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, June 2, 2024 7:20:01 AM
GFS offers some optimism once again with HP build over the UK. ECM however continues churning out some of the worst output I've ever seen for Summer. Cold and unsettled.  Genuinely depressing if it verifies. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, June 2, 2024 7:26:32 AM
WX temp charts still chopping and changing. From warm for Britain this time yesterday, cool last night, we are now back to modest warmth pushing up through W Europe in week 2 and the cold plunge restored to E Europe. But there's quite a cool week 1 for Britain to get through first with much of Iceland under freezing conditions (and the NW-lies, see below, will bring this south). Rain for C Europe and Scandinavia week 1, breaking up into distributed patches in week 2. Driest areas for SW Britain week 1, NE in week 2.

GFS Op - current HP slipping W-wards allowing LP near Iceland to develop, more so than yesterday, deepest 990mb Faeroes Wed 5th with cold N/NW-lies. Although this LP fills, it hangs around the Norwegian Sea and North Sea with a N-ly cast to the weather until Mon 10th when HP builds in from the SW. This HP is present over Britain for the following week, but from Sat 15th LP west of Ireland links with that lurking over France and becomes centred 1005mb over much of SW Britain Tue 18th.

ECM - that LP isn't merely 'around' but moves W to cover Britain with a 'cool pool' 1005mb Wed 12th, and no sign of HP from the SW. Alas, ECM has been more consistent and accurate than GFS over the last few days.

GEM - closer to GFS; the LP Wed 5th is more out to the NE and affecting Britain to a lesser extent, and then HP does build in on Mon 10th but from NW, not SW

GEFS - temps dropping from norm to cool Wed 5th, slowly recovering to norm Wed 12th with quite good ens agreement after which a spread of outcomes either side of norm. Not much rain at first in S/SW, rather more continual in N/NE, some runs showing spikes now and then anywhere esp Sat 15th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Jiries
Sunday, June 2, 2024 8:33:09 AM

GFS offers some optimism once again with HP build over the UK. ECM however continues churning out some of the worst output I've ever seen for Summer. Cold and unsettled.  Genuinely depressing if it verifies. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.
+1
doctormog
Sunday, June 2, 2024 12:30:03 PM

Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



The ECM 00z op run was not an outlier at any point. It’s also not that wet away from the NW
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Matty H
Sunday, June 2, 2024 12:43:29 PM

Likely a severe outlier for ECM and GFS correct even the apps show decent recovering temperatures and more sunshin with very little rain around.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

. 

Good post. Let’s hope so 🤞 

It’s pretending to be summer here again today, but later next week looks garbage again
Yate, Nr Bristol
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