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doctormog
02 June 2024 12:51:17
Jiries will, I’m sure, quite happily look at the ensemble data and see the ECM op run was not an outlier. I can only assume that you haven’t. 🤣

Let’s hope the GFS is closer to the final output as more weather like today’s would be lovely.
Saint Snow
02 June 2024 18:27:26
Hide behind the sofa if you open the GFS 12z. It's an absolute horror show throughout.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
02 June 2024 18:29:34
GEM better, bringing settled conditions back by next weekend.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
02 June 2024 19:09:35
Decent ECM as well tonight.  First in awhile 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
02 June 2024 22:24:12
Oh for Pete’s sake, 18z is a real stinker again for summer lovers. Back to square one with cool conditions. Top temps scraping 17c in the sun in mid June… the Baltic summer continues. 
Zubzero
03 June 2024 04:11:24

Oh for Pete’s sake, 18z is a real stinker again for summer lovers. Back to square one with cool conditions. Top temps scraping 17c in the sun in mid June… the Baltic summer continues. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



We just had the warmest Spring on record, and we are on the 3rd day of summer, hardly baltic. 
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2024 05:56:29
Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2024 07:10:38
WX temp charts put summer in Britain on hold for a week while cool/cold air spreads down the N Sea from Iceland while (pace White Meadows) the Baltic continues warm as far north as  Finland, Then a switch round in week 2, with warmth pushing north from Spain and reaching the Scottish borders, while there is something of a cold plunge into western Russia. On the dry side for England and S Scotland, even very dry near Atlantic coasts, for both weeks, with some rain both north, south and especially east of this.

GFS Op - LP near Iceland extending NW-ly influence over Britain at its peak on Wed 5th, staying around the N Sea to Fri 7th, then moving to Sweden before HP appears from SW 1025mb to cover Britain Tue 11th, and after a few days with a rather uncertain ridge, HP is back in full control by Tue 18th. Pressure is low over E Europe at first and later over C Europe.

ECM - the LP is slower to move away, still affecting Britain Mon 10th, and then the incoming HP only covers S England Thu 13th with LP 1005mb Shetland and strong W-lies between. 

GEM - resembles GFS, but with a stronger HP 1030mb persisting from Tue 11th centred over N Ireland, and consequent fresh E-lies through the Channel.

GEFS - a drop to cool in all ens members on Wed 5th followed by a steady rise to norm or a little above over the next fortnight with fair agreement for England, a wider spread with some much warmer for Scotland. A few splashes of rain in the S, more likely around Sat 15th, but rather more in quantity and frequency for the NW.

A generally pleasant outlook, though I'm not as enthusiastic as APS; and a caveat that ECM has been the most accurate forecast over the last week or so.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2024 07:59:08

Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Certainly encouraging but the Ops is at the higher end of the GFS runs. The overall pattern is for a build of high pressure to the south west rather than the south at the moment.  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
UncleAlbert
03 June 2024 08:05:39

Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




​​​​​​Op still in the minority though, but it does have some support.  Also a good solid warming trend with time.
idj20
03 June 2024 08:18:20

We just had the warmest Spring on record, and we are on the 3rd day of summer, hardly baltic. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



But hardly that warm. 😂 It's been an underwhelming meteorological Spring, at least for this neck of the woods. 

Anyway, at least the latest runs offers a temporary glimmer of hope in terms of some prolonged decent weather beyond this week, but in the deterministic range it's pretty much the same old same old.  
Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
03 June 2024 08:29:43

Excellent GFS and GEM this morning HP builds over the UK by 144h. GFS In particular turns into a classic early summer run. Temps mid to high 20s! ☀️☀️☀️🤞🤞 🤞

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Let hope so because after a false warmest spring on record when temps didn't go to 25C in March, 29C in April or 33C in May which are the 3 hottest maxes on each Spring month that qualifiy warmest spring on record.    Let hope it continue the trend to correction summery pattern we badly needed this year. 
fairweather
03 June 2024 09:00:13
How do the models manage to predict bad weather long term with such precision yet fail miserably with good weather short term! I am going to Shetland tomorrow for a week's holiday. All I ask for is for some dry days and not too windy or cold and some bright spells for photography. I started looking as soon as it came into range on GFS two weeks ago. It said it would change from tomorrow to windy cold, 40% chance of rain every day and 9-11C. It hasn't changed from that one iota and today it has said it will start to improve Tuesday next week wen I return!
Compare that with two weeks ago when I decided at short notice to go to the New Forest for two days as the forecast on the Sunday night for Tuesday/Wednesday was warm, sunny Tuesday and hazy sunshine Wednesday with the risk of a shower. The reality was sunny Tuesday morning then 36 hours solid of rain! So this is about model output predictions but it gets worse so the rest can go in the "Moaning" thread!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
03 June 2024 14:22:18

Oh for Pete’s sake, 18z is a real stinker again for summer lovers. Back to square one with cool conditions. Top temps scraping 17c in the sun in mid June… the Baltic summer continues. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Wouldn't that be around average though? 17c any time of year could in no way be described as 'Baltic', if you mean that in the winterly sense anyway. The Baltics can get very hot in Summer. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2024 17:30:31
Decent set of 12s , are we finally losing the HLB?
🤞 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Sage
03 June 2024 22:56:00

How do the models manage to predict bad weather long term with such precision yet fail miserably with good weather short term! I am going to Shetland tomorrow for a week's holiday. All I ask for is for some dry days and not too windy or cold and some bright spells for photography. I started looking as soon as it came into range on GFS two weeks ago. It said it would change from tomorrow to windy cold, 40% chance of rain every day and 9-11C. It hasn't changed from that one iota and today it has said it will start to improve Tuesday next week wen I return!
Compare that with two weeks ago when I decided at short notice to go to the New Forest for two days as the forecast on the Sunday night for Tuesday/Wednesday was warm, sunny Tuesday and hazy sunshine Wednesday with the risk of a shower. The reality was sunny Tuesday morning then 36 hours solid of rain! So this is about model output predictions but it gets worse so the rest can go in the "Moaning" thread!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I'm in Shetland at the moment, you'll get all the weather in one day, we've had lovely sun, pouring rain, wind, all at different times today, you'll still get plenty of good pictures.  Cold and wind is what they are good at up here, just wrap up and have a good holiday.
White Meadows
04 June 2024 07:16:39
ECM evolution is beautiful this morning…. If it were January and you like proper winter weather! 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 June 2024 07:17:54
WX temp charts much as yesterday; a cool plunge from the north in week 1 mainly affecting Britain and North Sea areas, being pushed eastwards in week 2 to the EBaltic and W Russia, while its place is taken by warmth from the south - France becoming hot, England warm and Scotland at least milder (well, snow showers for the mountains were on the BBC forecast for this week). Most of the rain for Europe in C & E areas, but some still hanging around N Scotland (week 1) and N England (week 2).

GFS Op - current LP near Iceland about to feed in some modified Arctic air, and remaining close to the NE until Sun 9th after which HP builds from the SW to cover Britain 1025mb Tue 11th. This is diminished by a shallow trough off W Ireland Sat 15th which weakens as it moves eastwards and HP is back in control Tue 18th (though there is a thundery-looking LP over the Low Countries Thu 20th).

ECM - similar to GFS and not showing an LP settling over England later on, as it did yesterday. Its final chart for Fri 14th indicates that the trough off W Ireland is being held off by a ridge of HP connecting to Norway.

GEM - agrees with ECM though keeping the current LP closer to Scotland for a day longer

GEFS - EDIT, updated - dip in temps to 5C below norm in the next couple of days, rising steadily back to norm Wed 12th with good agreement to that point. Mean then stays near norm with a variety of outliers from warm to cool.  Dry at first, small amounts of rain in some runs  from Tue 11th in S & SW;  but some rain in most runs throughout elsewhere, heavy at times in W Scotland 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
cultman1
04 June 2024 13:49:34
So is the anticipated warm up / improvement going become a reality next week? The Met Office has a different take for mid June 
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2024 17:28:53
Greenland blocking back on the 12s. Wnak! 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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