theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2024 19:55:03

Why, what happened in 1675?
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The Coldest CET in the last 350 years.  11.5c . We are pretty close atm.

Ecm 12z was an unsettled outlier at the end but a major wobble tonight. Huge doubt on any improvement. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
13 June 2024 20:56:50
June now -2.0
… all the more shocking after such a run of above av. cet months.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

The woke movement have only the old school Greek heatwaves to report in the ‘headlines’ pretending 40c degrees is out of this world there.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 June 2024 21:20:41

June now -2.0
… all the more shocking after such a run of above av. cet months.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

The woke movement have only the old school Greek heatwaves to report in the ‘headlines’ pretending 40c degrees is out of this world there.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Swap June and February - I wish!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Matty H
13 June 2024 21:56:37
The entire output looks as dreadful as it has since March
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
David M Porter
13 June 2024 22:00:36

The entire output looks as dreadful as it has since March

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Agreed, Matty.

I reckon that going by the current output, this month will do well to finish even close to average, let alone above.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ozone_aurora
13 June 2024 22:39:26

The entire output looks as dreadful as it has since March

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Agree with you. This morning's (13 Jun) GFS 'hopes for a HP' forecast was far too good to be true! 

My hunch now is a definite miserable wet summer - certainly the rest of June will be miserable and wet.

Sometimes things seem easy to forecast!
Tim A
14 June 2024 05:45:55

June now -2.0
… all the more shocking after such a run of above av. cet months.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

The woke movement have only the old school Greek heatwaves to report in the ‘headlines’ pretending 40c degrees is out of this world there.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Well if you don't believe in climate change it should be entirely expected to have some cold months even a -4.0c month and regular runs of 6 plus months with below average CET's just to balance the warm months out.  Of course that won't happen as the world is getting alarmingly warmer. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
+1
johncs2016
14 June 2024 06:55:18

Well if you don't believe in climate change it should be entirely expected to have some cold months even a -4.0c month and regular runs of 6 plus months with below average CET's just to balance the warm months out.  Of course that won't happen as the world is getting alarmingly warmer. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



In addition to that, you would also expect there to be as many cold temperature records as warm/hot temperature records overall if you didn't believe in climate change but that clearly isn't the case as high temperature records are broken on an alarmingly very regular basis with cold temperature records being very rare.

The cold start to this summer shows that quite clearly because although the negative temperature anomaly is quite big at the moment, I haven't heard of any records being broken for that or even being challenged whereas it would no doubt have been a completely different story if this summer had started off on an exceptionally hot note.

There clearly has to be some scientific explanation for that and if that isn't climate change, what is it?
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Retron
14 June 2024 07:09:08
Plenty of sunshine and average temperatures sums up the outlook for the next week, at least down here. No heatwave (thank goodness), but not cold either. The mean high here for mid-June (91-20) is 20.5C, compared to 19.1 in the 61-90 period...

The new and improved MetO raw has 21 today, then 19, 20, 21, 20, 20, 20 for the next six. GFS, for comparison, has 17, 15, 17, 18, 19, 15, 13... but it's barely worth taking note of, it's been atrocious this year and continues to be so.
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 June 2024 07:10:02
WX temp charts back in pessimistic mood today. After yesterday's suggestion of warmth moving well northwards, today a weak advance of something a little warmer into NW Europe in week 1 is followed by a renewed retreat as cooler isotherms (14C and below) move into E Britain, Germany and Scandinavia (the last of these was shown yesterday as really warm). Outlook for dry weather has improved though. Nowhere is absolutely dry but today WX is showing France as wet in week 1 (yesterday it was Britain) and the Baltic/Finland in week 2.

GFS Op - current LP hangs around and dominates Britain until Tue 19th when it moves off N-wards. A weak ridge of HP follows from the W but SE England more affected by LP 1005mb Belgium Thu 20th et seq. New Atlantic LP approaches Scotland Sun 23rd with a spell of  cool zonal W-lies from Sun 23rd, later NW-lies. As this moves on to Sweden, a N-S ridge of HP sets up for Britain from Thu 27th, with N-lies for the E Coast and SE-lies for the W coast.

ECM - sticks with its predictions of yesterday; like GFS until Thu 20th when it places the HP further S so the SE is not affected by continental LP and Scotland has fresh W-lies.

GEM - slower to clear the current LP out of the way and then straight into the zonal pattern with HP scarcely putting in an appearance.

GEFS - temps getting back to norm in the next few days (in Scotland already so), and the mean stays there as the various ens members diverge - just a hint of something a but warmer after Thu 27th (jam tomorrow!). Quite a few ens members have a cool and wet period around Thu 20th in the S, drier later, but otherwise some rain at many times in most places, wettest in the NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2024 07:46:07
Better 0z but a real mixed bag. The jet looks to be firing up and it's whether it goes north or slams into the UK. Toss a coin atm.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2024 07:48:29
Looks like a heat dome setting up over the eastern USA this is probably what's firing up the Jet? 25c 850s on the east coast dont think I've ever seen that before.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=5&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
14 June 2024 08:01:11

Looks like a heat dome setting up over the eastern USA this is probably what's firing up the Jet? 25c 850s on the east coast dont think I've ever seen that before.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=5&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Only a matter of time before that same airmass reaches this side the Atlantic. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ozone_aurora
14 June 2024 08:19:10

Looks like a heat dome setting up over the eastern USA this is probably what's firing up the Jet? 25c 850s on the east coast dont think I've ever seen that before.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=5&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Could well be. If this heat dome moves far to the NE over Canada and towards Greenland, perhaps there'll be less of cyclogenesis in the N Atlantic affecting central UK. Or doesn't it work like that?
David M Porter
14 June 2024 08:20:01

In addition to that, you would also expect there to be as many cold temperature records as warm/hot temperature records overall if you didn't believe in climate change but that clearly isn't the case as high temperature records are broken on an alarmingly very regular basis with cold temperature records being very rare.

The cold start to this summer shows that quite clearly because although the negative temperature anomaly is quite big at the moment, I haven't heard of any records being broken for that or even being challenged whereas it would no doubt have been a completely different story if this summer had started off on an exceptionally hot note.

There clearly has to be some scientific explanation for that and if that isn't climate change, what is it?
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



It would IMO take an exceptionally rare weather pattern to be in place for any cold temperature records to be broken in the summer these days. Especially when this has hardly ever happened in the winter in recent times, save for the likes of 2010.

That said, summer 2015 did I think record a below average CET for the season as a whole. This was a surprise to me as it didn't seem like an especially cool summer at the time, especially when one considers that it produced the UK's then hottest July day on record on 1st July.

 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2024 09:04:47

Could well be. If this heat dome moves far to the NE over Canada and towards Greenland, perhaps there'll be less of cyclogenesis in the N Atlantic affecting central UK. Or doesn't it work like that?

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



Tbh I'm not sure about my theory but something has boosted the Jet. There's another theory of HP over the east coast of the US leads to low pressure over the mid Atlantic and HP for western Europe. Who knows?
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
johncs2016
14 June 2024 09:08:21

It would IMO take an exceptionally rare weather pattern to be in place for any cold temperature records to be broken in the summer these days. Especially when this has hardly ever happened in the winter in recent times, save for the likes of 2010.

That said, summer 2015 did I think record a below average CET for the season as a whole. This was a surprise to me as it didn't seem like an especially cool summer at the time, especially when one considers that it produced the UK's then hottest July day on record on 1st July.

 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



I don't think that the time of year actually matters in that regard though.

Even on those odd occasions when we get a really cold spell in winter, that is still usually unlikely to break any actual records whereas high temperature records are broken on a regular basis with that tending to be the case regardless of the time of year when that's happening.

That is the point which I was trying to make here and so it is the all year round pattern of these records which I was referring to rather than just the scenario in summer.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
14 June 2024 09:22:12

Only a matter of time before that same airmass reaches this side the Atlantic. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



I think the days of that happening are long gone. USA airmasses impact UK weather but they don't often move directly across the Atlantic and even if they do, they are greatly modified by the Ocean. 

We have to look south for our heat. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2024 10:03:27
Quite a few heatwaves now showing up on the ECM ensembles but also a few still with the cool crud we are so used to now. Hopefully we get lucky.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
14 June 2024 10:47:40
Today's GFS 6z very different from yesterday's for the UK. 

Different in a bad way (at least out to t+276)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 June 2024 10:52:56
FAX charts show an unceasing mass of fronts over Britain through to Monday, and even as they clear on Tuesday there's an *interesting* system moving into the Channel
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
David M Porter
14 June 2024 11:17:24

I don't think that the time of year actually matters in that regard though.

Even on those odd occasions when we get a really cold spell in winter, that is still usually unlikely to break any actual records whereas high temperature records are broken on a regular basis with that tending to be the case regardless of the time of year when that's happening.

That is the point which I was trying to make here and so it is the all year round pattern of these records which I was referring to rather than just the scenario in summer.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



The spring just passed turned out to be the warmest on record for CET as was mentioned earlier in the thread. When I first heard that I was surprised as the first couple of months produced hardly any notably warm weather in my locality unlike what has happened in March and April in numerous recent years. I think Helen Willetts of the BBC said the other day that it was the almost complete absence of any frost in all/most of the UK (largely a result of the dominance of cloudy & wet conditions) during the spring that was as much of a factor in the overall warmth of the season as the very warm daytime temperatures seen at times in May. Perhaps March and April were warmer in other areas, but to the best of my recollection neither month was never especially warm here at any point.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
cultman1
14 June 2024 13:36:10
Elaborate? !
it looks like high pressure will be moving in as ne t week progresses? 
Saint Snow
14 June 2024 14:02:09

Elaborate? !
it looks like high pressure will be moving in as ne t week progresses? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 




....then shunted aside by the next fat Atlantic low from the WNW

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
14 June 2024 15:29:05
The issue is, as I said in my earlier post, CET bears no resemblance to the daytime weather perceived and experienced in Spring. Because of the high amount of cloud we have had this has a far greater effect on raising the overall temperature than lack of sun depresses it. So people notice the awful wet cloudy daytime weather with the slightly below average maxima making it one of the worst Spring's I can remember here (in the overall concept of "summery weather")
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1

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