WX charts back to a somewhat more optimistic outlook for warmth today. Week 1 is still cool for all of W Europe (something a little better creeping into Cornwall) then in week 2 a pulse of warmth from the south affects western areas of Europe, especially Germany and Denmark with Britain getting a bit of the action on the western edge of this. The cool plunge is now focused on Finland and W Russia (yesterday it was for Europe as a whole). Rain quite widely across Europe in week 1, in week 2 concentrated on Britain, France and Holland while Scandinavia and the Baltic become very dry.
GFS - current LP near NE Scotland slowly moving to Scandinavia but lingering N-lies until Tue 11th. Brief ridge of HP before shallow troughs move into Britain from the Atlantic 1005mb Sat 15th E Anglia, 1000mb Mon 17th Ireland, the latter making a slow anti-clockwise circuit of Britain before retreating northwards Sat 22nd as the Azores ridge builds from the SW (Yesterday this trough was shown as slipping SE-wards past Cornwall but today the outlook is much more like what ECM then showed). Scandinavia gets the benefits of HP from Sat 15th onwards.
ECM - also has trough from the Atlantic but takes one bite at it, not two, starting Sat 15th 995mb S Ireland and then moving across England to the N Sea Mon 17th. Both GFS and ECM look to be cooler than suggested by WX.
GEM - the trough arrives earlier Thu 13th and does the perambulation of Britain as described above, but in this model it links to LP off the Norwegian coast for generally lower pressure over all of Britain, and no HP for Scandinavia.
GEFS - on the cool side to Sat 15th then near norm to Sat 22nd with good ensemble agreement; at the very end some members show much warmer. Rain in the S from Tue 11th in most runs, mostly small amounts but possibility of heavier Thu 13th and in the SW at any time; in the N rain starts a day or two earlier and is more intermittent though never far away, except that the far NE has some longer drier spells around the 15th.
Edited by user
07 June 2024 07:38:05
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Reason: Not specified
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