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Jiries
17 June 2024 07:43:17

Well this mornings ECM produces another heatwave run. Temps in the 30s I  imagine by the end. Will the Met Office change their update today?
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I won't be here but hope it stay warm to hot in July,  Ground should start drying up rest of this month hopefully and reduce the horrible lush weedy green to normal semi-parched landscape.
Retron
17 June 2024 07:54:43

Well this mornings ECM produces another heatwave run. Temps in the 30s I  imagine by the end. Will the Met Office change their update today?
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It's why I grinned the other week when someone moaned that it wouldn't get above 28 all summer! 30 is inevitable at some point, I'd say, and the EPS shows a ~10% chance of it next week. The median for London is 25 by then, and that median has been creeping up over the past few runs.

Frankly, as I'll be in London at the end of next week (using up hotel points), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 30. I have a knack of going on holiday to places when they're especially hot, it seems!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202406170000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2024 08:07:19

It's why I grinned the other week when someone moaned that it wouldn't get above 28 all summer! 30 is inevitable at some point, I'd say, and the EPS shows a ~10% chance of it next week. The median for London is 25 by then, and that median has been creeping up over the past few runs.

Frankly, as I'll be in London at the end of next week (using up hotel points), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 30. I have a knack of going on holiday to places when they're especially hot, it seems!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202406170000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Well obviously that someone was me😀.
I was basically having  a moan. I would like to see 30c next week. But ECM tends to over do HP in out location especially in the 192h/240h. GFS on the other hand often over does low pressure.  So the jury is out.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
17 June 2024 08:08:34

I won't be here but hope it stay warm to hot in July,  Ground should start drying up rest of this month hopefully and reduce the horrible lush weedy green to normal semi-parched landscape.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Except that we are supposed to live in a ‘green and pleasant land’, not a semi-parched, overheated hellscape.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
17 June 2024 08:16:58
Must admit I like lush and green as well. Not a fan of colourless, arid hellscapes 🤣
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2024 08:20:11

Must admit I like lush and green as well. Not a fan of colourless, arid hellscapes 🤣

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



It's surprising how quickly it dries out. Already hints of parched grass here after a dryish June.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
17 June 2024 08:37:41

It's surprising how quickly it dries out. Already hints of parched grass here after a dryish June.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



We were stood in the pub garden last night watching the latest pile of tripe Southgate was serving up, and several of us commented on how wet the ground still is. Bone dry and sunny all day yesterday and yet everyone had muddy feet in there as the water seeped up through the turf. 
Rob K
17 June 2024 08:40:21

We were stood in the pub garden last night watching the latest pile of tripe Southgate was serving up, and several of us commented on how wet the ground still is. Bone dry and sunny all day yesterday and yet everyone had muddy feet in there as the water seeped up through the turf. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I was out mountain biking in a big group last week and the amount of dust being kicked up was remarkable. I was expecting mud but apart from a few damp bits under the trees it was mostly loose dust. Amazing.

On topic, and this morning's ECM looks rather toasty.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
17 June 2024 08:55:00

It's surprising how quickly it dries out. Already hints of parched grass here after a dryish June.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



It’s still really damp here, with quite a lot of standing water since the water table is very high - and the grass is growing extraordinarily fast.  
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
17 June 2024 13:56:23

It's surprising how quickly it dries out. Already hints of parched grass here after a dryish June.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



12mm of rain in the last 19 days with plenty of strong sunshine, coupled with the relatively low dew points have dried things out significantly. Already some parched grass showing here too.
White Meadows
17 June 2024 14:07:18
EC ens suggest topping out at 24c in London so maybe just a mirage at this stage:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
johncs2016
17 June 2024 14:55:51
The latest model output is starting to look very interesting from a summer perspective.

Until now, this month has been much drier than of late in this part of the world despite last Friday's downpours and the although we might get a bit of rain towards the end of the week, there's no signs of anything all that wet here and so, it looks as though this is shaping up to be a below average month here in terms of rainfall (Edinburgh never stays really wet for months on end like other parts of the UK, and that is being shown up really nicely).

In addition to that, I recently discussed on here, my comparison between what's been happening during this month so far, and what happened in this same month back in 2013 and I can see a similar scenario again turning up in the latest model output as well.

Back in the summer of 2013, high pressure sat to our SW quite a lot of the time but even here in SE Scotland, it was usually always close enough to us to keep it largely dry and that played quite a huge part in us getting a decent summer overall in that year.

Meanwhile, the latest models (at least according to the Met Office's look ahead to the rest of this week) has high pressure building tantalisingly close enough to us to our SW to vastly weaken any frontal systems which come our way and of course, it wouldn't take much for that high pressure to then build in across the UK and deliver a spell of decent summer weather.

Given that comparison with the summer of 2013, could we be possibly be in for something here?
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
White Meadows
17 June 2024 17:02:02
As much as I’d love this summer to take a sudden (or even gradual) U-turn, there’s been an awful lot of ‘writing off’ the whole summer from various members in here, based on June’s pattern/ pattern matching. 

Thoughts welcome. 
Rob K
17 June 2024 17:36:03
UKMO 12Z is looking pretty warm for the weekend with a blob of 16C 850s hovering just off the south coast. GFS is a good deal cooler. I'm starting to feel a decent warm up may be on the cards though. And the latest Met Office text update backs that up.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
17 June 2024 21:47:14

UKMO 12Z is looking pretty warm for the weekend with a blob of 16C 850s hovering just off the south coast. GFS is a good deal cooler. I'm starting to feel a decent warm up may be on the cards though. And the latest Met Office text update backs that up.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yup, the H word is there for the first time since July last year. 
Retron
18 June 2024 04:42:55
GFS has been toying with the idea of some torrential rain for the SE on Friday, albeit the MetO output couldn't be more different - and that little battle has been going on for the past few days.

The 18z run last night from the GFS, though, excelled itself. I've never before seen a forecast for an inch of rain in 3 hours here!

This morning's MetO text forecast does hint at a chance of heavy rain, but they sat it's a "low" chance. Try telling that to the GFS!

Dry, fine, warm Thursday and most of Friday, although low chance heavy rain early Friday.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/rain.jpg 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Matty H
18 June 2024 06:43:20
Not remotely convinced about any coming hot spell. I’ve only looked at the ops, but GFS is pretty crap overall, bar a few day. ECM does the usual for so far this spring/summer and sets the high up west of the UK with a NW feed of air over us
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 07:08:12

Not remotely convinced about any coming hot spell. I’ve only looked at the ops, but GFS is pretty crap overall, bar a few day. ECM does the usual for so far this spring/summer and sets the high up west of the UK with a NW feed of air over us

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



As you say both doing what they normally do. ECM often does HP over Greenland in the 192h/240h period.  So seems unlikely.  GFS often over does low pressure in the UK vicinity.  So both likely wrong.  GEM maybe a good bet this morning. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
18 June 2024 07:16:36

As you say both doing what they normally do. ECM often does HP over Greenland in the 192h/240h period.  So seems unlikely.  GFS often over does low pressure in the UK vicinity.  So both likely wrong.  GEM maybe a good bet this morning. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



If we do get HP over us I am more concern about nasty clouds amount and behaviour regarding wrong timing.  Lot of clouds this morning doesn’t bode well for rest of week to weekend.  I like to see removal of those clouds to unlimited sunshine times on useful daytime peak hours.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 June 2024 07:24:11
WX charts continue to show warmth moving north over Europe, but unlike yesterday, this movement stalls over S Britain, leaving Scotland cool, while there is a major increase in warmth over Scandinavia, Sweden and Finland becoming hot in week 2. Rain fairly widespread over Europe in both weeks; for Britain drier in the north.

GFS Op - weak HP moving in from the west but subject to continental LP 1010 mb N France Fri 21st and Atlantic trough Sat 22nd. HP revives, originally from the SW, but settling over N Baltic Wed 26th with ridge just about reaching Cornwall. From Fri 28th continental LP drifts up the N Sea and the HP centre shifts to the Atlantic off NW Scotland. and this distribution lasts out the week.

ECM - mirrors GFS to Mon 24th but at that point the HP stops over Britain for a few days though slowly moving to the west with NW-lies for Britain

GEM - similar to GFS rather than ECM, but with indication that HP over Scandinavia more persistent after Fri 28th

FAX and MetO bring weak fronts and light rain across from the W from Fri 21st in contrast to the prospect of more thundery stuff associated with continental LPs  from the E in the above models

GEFS - in the S warm (nicely so but not spectacular) around Fri 21st and in most runs again from Fri 28th for several days. Rain likely on these two Fridays (but not from Meto, see Retron's post above). otherwise mostly dry. Similar temp profile in the north but less certain, and small amounts of rain from time to time, very little in the NE. 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 07:30:10
I like the NOAA charts for the next 2 weeks. They're Professional forecasters interpretation of the output. So more nuanced . They suggest to me very warm/hot weather likely.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 08:11:04
ECM mean much more realistic imo. HP unlikely to drift to Greenland. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
18 June 2024 08:33:46

ECM mean much more realistic imo. HP unlikely to drift to Greenland. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




Yeah, we're not realistically talking heatwave, just a general improvement in the synoptics for much more settled weather; a 'pattern reset' from the Jet being regularly on an unfavourable trajectory for the UK.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rob K
18 June 2024 09:20:23
ECM pulls the high a bit too far west this morning. GEM and UKMO are where I am putting my money, settled and warm, it's about time!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
18 June 2024 09:26:02
Should be a perfect run up to polling day for canvassers

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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