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David M Porter
14 June 2024 16:48:23

The issue is, as I said in my earlier post, CET bears no resemblance to the daytime weather perceived and experienced in Spring. Because of the high amount of cloud we have had this has a far greater effect on raising the overall temperature than lack of sun depresses it. So people notice the awful wet cloudy daytime weather with the slightly below average maxima making it one of the worst Spring's I can remember here (in the overall concept of "summery weather")

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



That's true. It would have been interesting to have seen what the final CET for the spring would have been had the very warm weather of May been preceded by rather more sunshine and settled weather in March and April, with warmer daytime temperatures but cooler nights with them.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
14 June 2024 16:53:27
The outer stretches of the GFS 12z run look encouraging so far but it’s one run of one model and we’ve seen those signs disappear before in recent weeks. Hopefully it’s the start of a trend.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
14 June 2024 17:45:48

The outer stretches of the GFS 12z run look encouraging so far but it’s one run of one model and we’ve seen those signs disappear before in recent weeks. Hopefully it’s the start of a trend.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Let's hope so Michael. There have IIRC been one or two other GFS op runs which have suggested something similar in FI, but not on a consistent basis. As you say, hopefully this might just be the start of a trend towards something better later in the month.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Chunky Pea
14 June 2024 20:13:33

I think the days of that happening are long gone. USA airmasses impact UK weather but they don't often move directly across the Atlantic and even if they do, they are greatly modified by the Ocean. 

We have to look south for our heat. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



My concern is that if this hyper warm airmass over the eastern States does cross the Atlantic, it'll pick up excessive moisture, leading to excessively high dew points down the line 😟
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Retron
15 June 2024 05:27:56
Several days ago I mentioned the wind forecast for today - the proof is in the pudding, as they say, and I'll be keeping an eye on reported windspeeds later.

FWIW, GFS has done the old MetO trick of creeping up run by run - it now has 40mph gusts here rather than low 30s. The new MetO model has been rock-solid throughout, and still has mid 40s (which will be enough to bring down small branches, cause problems at bootfairs, move trampolines, break weakened fences etc). The old MetO output still has mid 30s instead, around 10mph difference.

I still think there will be a lot of disgruntled folks later this morning and into the afternoon as the winds pick up! The MetO worded forecasts just said "breezy" right up 'til the last minute; this morning the wording has changed to "Becoming windy along the English Channel coast, especially Sussex and Kent coasts", which is a bit better but still doesn't convey just how windy it'll be across the rest of Kent and the SE!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2024 07:07:17
Another mixed bag this morning,  GFS is almost 76 like but it's ensembles are much more variable.  Ecm quite warm again but more unsettled.  Still to uncertain to make a call imo.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2024 07:18:57
WX charts  - a welcome turn around today. Although week1 remains cool anywhere north of the Channel/Baltic coast, in week 2 England becomes definitely warm with Scotland also improving but not as much. The same warmth reaches S Sweden but still rather cold to the north of that. Rain widespread over Europe N of the Mediterranean in week 1, but a very dry area establishing over France and S England week 2, as well as drier elsewhere. [Note of caution; this is a sudden change from yesterday's chart so needs confirmation before it can be trusted!]

GFS Op - current LP filling and out of the way to the north by Tue 19th. For most of the following week pressure is quite high over Britain though the south may be affected by shallow LP over France/Biscay. A trough appears N Ireland 995mb Sat 22nd but fills rapidly as it moves E, then a strong rise of pressure from the SW, 1020mb covering Britain from Mon 24th through to Mon 1st though with LP winding up in Biscay at the end of this. 

ECM - like GFS but the trough Sat 22nd is further N and moves NE past Scotland so pressure remains relatively high for the rest of Britain throughout

GEM - places the Sat 22nd trough over N England and deeper than above; also slower to build HP after it has passed through.

GEFS - temps regaining norm in S by Mon 17th (Scotland fairly close to norm already) then a period with temps close to or a little above norm through to Mon 24th with no more than fairly good ens agreement. After that a considerable divergence between ens members (see caveat above) - you can cherry-pick from 13C above norm to 5C below! Highest chances of rain, some quite heavy falls, in the S around Sat 22nd but some runs continue wet later on; in Scotland wettest in the next couple of days but then mostly dry.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
White Meadows
15 June 2024 08:07:28
Maybe this thread should be renamed to the Global Warming thread? 
UncleAlbert
15 June 2024 08:42:48

Another mixed bag this morning,  GFS is almost 76 like but it's ensembles are much more variable.  Ecm quite warm again but more unsettled.  Still to uncertain to make a call imo.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes, looking at the recent model sequence over the last week or so,  I can't help getting the impression that we are beginning to endure one of those 'at arms length summers.  I do hope that it will not be the case.   GEM in particular, still wanting to bring back cold plunges towards the UK from the north west!
doctormog
15 June 2024 09:06:56
It’s definitely more mixed in this morning’s output (as opposed to cool and unsettled across the board). The coming week looks  closer to average temperature wise but still unsettled and there are stronger signs of warmth beyond then.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
15 June 2024 14:16:39

Several days ago I mentioned the wind forecast for today - the proof is in the pudding, as they say, and I'll be keeping an eye on reported windspeeds later.

FWIW, GFS has done the old MetO trick of creeping up run by run - it now has 40mph gusts here rather than low 30s. The new MetO model has been rock-solid throughout, and still has mid 40s (which will be enough to bring down small branches, cause problems at bootfairs, move trampolines, break weakened fences etc). The old MetO output still has mid 30s instead, around 10mph difference.

I still think there will be a lot of disgruntled folks later this morning and into the afternoon as the winds pick up! The MetO worded forecasts just said "breezy" right up 'til the last minute; this morning the wording has changed to "Becoming windy along the English Channel coast, especially Sussex and Kent coasts", which is a bit better but still doesn't convey just how windy it'll be across the rest of Kent and the SE!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


And in the end, gusts have been in the low 40s here, with 47 at Langdon and 43 at Manston catching the eye.

Full marks to the MetO's new modelling, no marks to its old modelling and half marks to GFS, which eventually got close but only 18 hours out!
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
15 June 2024 14:45:37
To my eye the output is looking more encouraging for settled and warmer weather in a week to 10 days' time now. Nothing too amazing, and always the chance of another low pressure nosing in, but at least some oranges and reds on the Z500 charts.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
15 June 2024 14:47:24

That's true. It would have been interesting to have seen what the final CET for the spring would have been had the very warm weather of May been preceded by rather more sunshine and settled weather in March and April, with warmer daytime temperatures but cooler nights with them.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


This is true for Scotland but the weather in May was largely cool and wet in the South East, at least by recent standards.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
White Meadows
15 June 2024 18:57:58
Baby steps towards some possible kind of improvement in about a weeks time in this evenings output. For the south at last some 20c daytime maxes are a genuine prospect, while further north it stays cool and unsettled most of the time. 

We’re still running at a full 2.0c below normal for June:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

Just to think this was the standard type of June the country would have experienced in the little ice age in the 1600’s
Must have been pretty darn miserable much of the time.
 
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2024 19:11:12
Very nice ECM 12z this evening, settles down as early as 72/96h with some decent heat by the end.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2024 07:41:09
WX temp charts much as yesterday for Britain; warm-ish weather moving north the Channel and Baltic coasts, continuing further north to the Scottish border in week 2. However, it doesn't  progress into Scandinavia and indeed cooling somewhat in E Europe while the first super-hot patch of summer in Europe appears in SW Spain (that's a day-night average of 36C+). Rain widespread over Europe in week 1, then a very dry area appears over France and Spain in week 2 pushing the rain eastwards.

GFS Op - current LP as previously forecast to be out of the way by Tue 18th followed by HP settling over Britain through to Tue 2nd, albeit rather uncertainly as areas of LP come and go around the edges (1015mb Biscay Thu 20th, 995mb Faeroes Sat 22nd and Wed 26th, 1005mb Denmark Fri 28th, 1005mb SW Ireland Mon 1st)

ECM - rather like GFS though the HP is more soundly established - the LP on Sat 22nd is further N and that on Wed 26th stays well out in mid-Atlantic

GEM - compared to GFS, develops and retains the LP after Thu 20th close to S England for 3 or 4 days, but does not show LP over Faeroes until 26th, Scotland enjoying settled HP until then.

GEFS - becoming briefly warm in the S around Fri 21st but with some heavy rain likely, then back to norm with quite good ens agreement to Tue 25th after which temps are anybody's guess, but dry weather predominates (a few runs show occasional heavy bursts of rain in the SW). Temp profile for Scotland similar though the uncertainty starts earlier, but small amounts of rain likely at any time, least in NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Ally Pally Snowman
16 June 2024 08:01:39
White Meadows
16 June 2024 09:25:40

Warm possibly hot ECM  mean this morning.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It’s an outlier (of course!) but certainly some form of warming trending now.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

A few consistent runs over the past 24-48 hrs so fingers crossed our current CET comparible to this March picks up closer to normal. 
 
Ally Pally Snowman
16 June 2024 09:35:07

It’s an outlier (of course!) but certainly some form of warming trending now.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

A few consistent runs over the past 24-48 hrs so fingers crossed our current CET comparible to this March picks up closer to normal. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The Op is a warm outlier early on. I posted the Mean which suggests we could be heading for a heatwave day 8/9 ish. Still plenty of time for it to go pear shaped though. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
16 June 2024 11:08:57
Love the evolution of both the ECM and GFS this morning.

Both develop high pressure right over the UK by t+208 then migrate it north to centre just to the north of the UK and bring in a slack easterly flow.

Not dissimilar to the broad set up we had in early summer 2018 - but I don't expect this to be as resilient, unfortunately (it's taking place about 5/6 weeks later, too)
​​​​​
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
16 June 2024 21:58:23
12z output continues to trend in favour of summer arriving late next week. Albeit with some spoiler frontal activity especially further north and west. 
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2024 05:22:36
Hmmmm. Underwhelming GEM and GFS this morning. This follows an Underwhelming Met office update yesterday which basically said remaining changeable.  UkMo and ICON still good this morning and show proper settled very warm/hot by 168h. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
17 June 2024 06:42:41

Hmmmm. Underwhelming GEM and GFS this morning. This follows an Underwhelming Met office update yesterday which basically said remaining changeable.  UkMo and ICON still good this morning and show proper settled very warm/hot by 168h. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Even so if get warm to hot I can’t be overwhelm as it already damaged goods this year and no foundation for high temperatures due to muddy wet landscape plus daylight will draw back.  Santa Claus, arctic circle in Lapland got to 20C so they got dry ground and good summer not seen any rain yet.  I see app put low 20,s so better than nothing at low cold teen temps.  
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2024 07:03:38
WX charts confirm yesterday's output with warmer weather moving steadily N over the next two weeks, milder conditions reaching even N Scotland and the top end of the Gulf of Bothnia. The cold spot is N Russia; Spain just ordinarily hot, not super-hot as yesterday. The distribution of rain has changed; week 1 quite widespread across Europe with Britain in the driest slot, week 2 heavier across continental Europe with Scandinavia becoming dry. NE Britain benefits from being on the edge of the latter but Ireland and S England are wet. 

GFS Op - High pressure coming and going over Britain for the next two weeks, all too often collapsing to leave Britain in a col between Atlantic and Scandinavia, pressure notably lower Sat 22nd, Wed 26th, Wed 3rd, and always the major threat of unsettled weather from shallow LPs over France.

ECM - has HP arriving on Wed 19th as per GFS, but then it sinks S-wards for a zonal W-ly until re-establishing on Mon 24th. In the last frame Thu 27th the HP moves E-wards as a shallow trough approaches Ireland.

GEM - close to GFS to end of run Thu 27th

GEFS - temps becoming norm or a little above (esp in N) to Wed 26th with good ens agreement, after which too uncertain to call. Rain probable in the S near Sat 22nd and also possible near Fri 28th (less on this date in the E), but in the N after initial rain, a dry period (extended in the NE),  otherwise moderate amounts on many days after 22nd. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2024 07:03:38

Even so if get warm to hot I can’t be overwhelm as it already damaged goods this year and no foundation for high temperatures due to muddy wet landscape plus daylight will draw back.  Santa Claus, arctic circle in Lapland got to 20C so they got dry ground and good summer not seen any rain yet.  I see app put low 20,s so better than nothing at low cold teen temps.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Well this mornings ECM produces another heatwave run. Temps in the 30s I  imagine by the end. Will the Met Office change their update today?
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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