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Rob K
18 June 2024 09:58:16
There's an awful lot of model disagreement still for Friday.

GFS has some heavy rain for the SE corner in the morning.
Arpege has a band of heavy rain crossing the country in the afternoon.

Both BBC and Met Office forecasts keep it dry here (Beeb has a chance of rain late in the evening).

I have a day off on Friday and at the moment am none the wiser...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Matty H
18 June 2024 10:13:58

There's an awful lot of model disagreement still for Friday.

GFS has some heavy rain for the SE corner in the morning.
Arpege has a band of heavy rain crossing the country in the afternoon.

Both BBC and Met Office forecasts keep it dry here (Beeb has a chance of rain late in the evening).

I have a day off on Friday and at the moment am none the wiser...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



The MetO text forecast for your area references rain moving east later on Friday, clearing, early Saturday. 
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 10:59:29
GFS 6z is more like it. A peach of a Summer run
 HP stuck like a limpet over the UK.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
18 June 2024 11:10:59

GFS 6z is more like it. A peach of a Summer run
 HP stuck like a limpet over the UK.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/country/gb 

Very worried some how masse of clouds where the HP is bringing down south so the clear slots will lose the sun in a moment time and perhaps not see again for foreseeable.  I know once the clouds are inside the HP zone it game over so perhaps today onward.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 11:15:16

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/country/gb 

Very worried some how masse of clouds where the HP is bringing down south so the clear slots will lose the sun in a moment time and perhaps not see again for foreseeable.  I know once the clouds are inside the HP zone it game over so perhaps today onward.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



It's not a particularly HP day though. Tmrw and Thursday should be better.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 18:58:49
The ECM 12z serves up an absolute scorcher!
A beautiful summer run.
🥵🥵🥵
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
18 June 2024 19:10:07
at last when is this expected?
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2024 19:25:51

at last when is this expected?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Looks like from Sunday,  whether it's a heatwave or just some pleasant summer weather is still unclear. The ECM is a best case scenario. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
18 June 2024 21:56:14
Indeed.

As Matty said once in July 2013; “excuse me while I touch myself” 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=228&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 


On another note, the cool June has lead to an absence of stag beetles this year. Perhaps they’ll come later on this year or maybe they all gave up and died off.
 
Matty H
18 June 2024 22:49:49

Indeed.

As Matty said once in July 2013; “excuse me while I touch myself” 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=228&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 


On another note, the cool June has lead to an absence of stag beetles this year. Perhaps they’ll come later on this year or maybe they all gave up and died off.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It’s not so much you recall this (in a David M Porter way) it’s that you recall the date 🤣🤣

And I will if it comes off. No pun intended. 
Chunky Pea
19 June 2024 06:17:38


On another note, the cool June has lead to an absence of stag beetles this year. Perhaps they’ll come later on this year or maybe they all gave up and died off.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I've noticed over the last couple of days that the leaves on the maple trees around my area are looking increasing stressed, in a way the do just before they turn colour in October. It is very weird to see them in this state in mid June. I think a combination of relatively low temps, low rainfall and the more absolute lack of bright sunshine is may be tricking them into thinking it mid autumn than early summer. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
White Meadows
19 June 2024 06:44:59
Some sort of transient high pressure moves over us next week by the look of it. Should raise temps to mid 20’s inland in the south. Then as the week progresses a shift back to cooler conditions- this is the current picture but hopefully can bolster support for extended warmth. 
Don’t want this ending up as a 3 day summer!
Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2024 07:24:39
Disappointing 0z has to be said. The HP fest of yesterday has gone. Most output this morning has a breakdown in the 7 to 10 day range.  GEM and ECM are very warm/hot still though.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
19 June 2024 07:28:34
I hope yesterday’s output wasn’t just a mirage. The long range Met forecast finally talks about decent warm and settled weather being the favourite and sure enough the models immediately abandon the idea (at least on the op runs).

Just as we see without fail once the Met get on board with a modelled cold spell, the wheels immediately fall off. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
19 June 2024 07:39:13

I hope yesterday’s output wasn’t just a mirage. The long range Met forecast finally talks about decent warm and settled weather being the favourite and sure enough the models immediately abandon the idea (at least on the op runs).

Just as we see without fail once the Met get on board with a modelled cold spell, the wheels immediately fall off. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Don’t let tierradelfuego see this as he expected widespread 30s days while I am away.  As long it stay warm over damaged goods summer season to pass time without chilly runs for July.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2024 07:53:13
Not a lot of change for the next two weeks in the WX temp charts - modest warmth, not far from norm, for NW Europe (Scotland still on the cool side), rather warmer weather spreading north into Finland, remaining normally hot in the Med (and a bit extra in the Balkans). Rain in week 1 for mid-Europe and the far north, dry around the N Sea; rain less heavy in week 2 but more widespread, dry for Spain and the Black Sea.

GFS Op - HP and LP taking turns over Britain for the next two weeks; HP (from the SW) now, Mon 24th, Sun 30th (just about), Fri 5th; LP Sat 22nd (from NW), Wed 26th (from S), Mon 1st (from NW), the last of these providing the coolest weather. The persistent HP with LP nibbling at its edges, as forecast a few days back, has been replaced by LPs which are more prominent and HP taking advantage of any gaps between.

ECM - much more settled than GFS with HP essentially dominant over Britain (weaker on Sat 22nd with zonal W-lies) until Fri 27th when a trough develops over the SW and slowly moves N up the W coast.

GEM - closer to ECM but the trough from Fri 27th drops back to sit over France rather than moving N-wards

GEFS - mostly on the warm side of norm until Fri 28th with good ens agreement, then back to norm with much less agreement. Rain most likely around Sat 22nd (in the S) and Sat 29th  and after(generally). A few runs have big totals for the W but nothing dramatic otherwise.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Matty H
19 June 2024 07:54:34
GFS op - crap, bar a few days

ECM op - crap, bar a few days

similar patterns as well, which doesn’t bode well. 
Retron
19 June 2024 10:23:09
Who knew the solstice sun was so weak...

(Something tells me the UV index might be a wee bit higher than 1 if there's nearly full sunshine at 1PM (noon GMT). Screenshot is of the 0z GFS run via xcweather)

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/uv.jpg 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2024 10:46:32
A better GFS 6z with only a brief breakdown before HP reinserts itself over the UK.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
19 June 2024 11:04:36

A better GFS 6z with only a brief breakdown before HP reinserts itself over the UK.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



That's what we like to see 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
19 June 2024 13:25:46

That's what we like to see 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



That what it used to be before in the past when you see HP to another HP with brief LP that is normal for our summer climate.  
 
doctormog
19 June 2024 16:42:07
Not the classic British summer of three fine days and then a thunderstorm? 😀

The weather may not turn out to be settled throughout but the output looks much warmer and more settled than it has been.
Rob K
19 June 2024 16:50:07
GFS goes plume-happy on the 12Z, but GEM is a party pooper.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
19 June 2024 22:07:14
Reasonable support for cool, warm, cool, warmer still in this evening’s output. 
Dates TBC of course 
Matty H
19 June 2024 22:58:50

Reasonable support for cool, warm, cool, warmer still in this evening’s output. 
Dates TBC of course 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



So reasonable support for tombola?

There was a big wobble this morning, but we seem to be on a track for better temps now for a while. Apologies to Darren who won’t be a fan

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