Model Output Discussion 1st March onwards· Page 37

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 06:51:44

Looks back to square 1 again this morning. LP making its way back home to Blighty once again. After a brief very warm spell. Rubbish

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Matty H
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 06:59:23

#902

Looks back to square 1 again this morning. LP making its way back home to Blighty once again. After a brief very warm spell. Rubbish

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Yep, and can’t be ignored as it’s similar to the what the overnight model runs were showing this time yesterday

Absolute crap

Yate, Nr Bristol
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DEW
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 07:16:17

#903

WX temp charts looking positive this morning, with pleasantly warm weather for the next 2 weeks for W Europe including Britain (possibly excepting the far N of Scotland). Elsewhere, quite hot for E Europe, rather cool for N Scandinavia, N Russia and a small patch in the Alps; the Med doing what it usually does in summer. In week 1 very dry for the N Sea and Baltic, with some rain around the edges of this incl W Britain; in week 2 wet across the Alps and N Norway, fairly dry elsewhere.

GFS Op - mostly HP to Tue 25th (though this mainly to the south at the weekend, with W-lies, perhaps less settled for the N); then the HP moves E-wards and LP drifts N from France to become centred 1000mb Wales Fri 28th before drifting to the NE. Then a broad and rather unfocused area of HP for the following week, but with a tendency to stay to the SW with cool-ish NW-ly winds.

ECM - less positive than GFS. A deeper trough embedded in the W-lies Sat 22nd, and then the LP arrives from France Wed 26th setting up a more definite centre 995mb Hebrides Fri 28th before moving to the N Sea Sun 30th with an associated cold pool.

GEM - close to ECM but the LP on 26th is deeper (990mb) and near N Ireland before moving to SW England at the weekend

GEFS - in the S, temps rising to warm (ca 6C above norm) Thu 27th with good agreement from ens members, before dropping back to norm for the rest of the period with more variability; not much rain at any time but if anything, more later on. In the N, similar temp profile but some heavy rain from Thu 27th occurring irregularly and not in every run.

Summer enthusiasts should be cheering on GFS.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

+4

ozone_aurora
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 08:14:36

#904

Looks back to square 1 again this morning. LP making its way back home to Blighty once again. After a brief very warm spell. Rubbish

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Yes, indeed.

The lengthy HP conditions was just too good to be true.

According to GFS, late next week looks very, very thundery.

Rob K
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 10:52:22

#905

How does that low pressure manage to sneak through and then just sit right over the UK, yet again?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 11:11:07

#906

How does that low pressure manage to sneak through and then just sit right over the UK, yet again?

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Yes charts becoming more and more unsettled. The charts at one point looked to be heading for a pattern change to HP dominated. But they have gone back to where we have been for most of Spring. The end of June is often where the summer pattern starts. Unsettled summer? You wouldn't bet against it.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

cultman1
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 13:27:59

#907

There seems to be so much despondency on this chat. The Met Office is pretty bullish for the improving conditions to continue at least for the South well into next week ?

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 13:53:09

#908

There seems to be so much despondency on this chat. The Met Office is pretty bullish for the improving conditions to continue at least for the South well into next week ?

Originally Posted by: cultman1

The models have flipped unsettled, breakdown likely Wednesday now sadly.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Retron
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 14:34:13

#909

There seems to be so much despondency on this chat. The Met Office is pretty bullish for the improving conditions to continue at least for the South well into next week ?

Originally Posted by: cultman1

The only one who should be despondent is me, as the outlook sucks. For everyone else, I'd imagine they'd rather enjoy the forecast weather here... here's the MetO raw, showing it to be warm and dry, with temperatures well above average (21C).

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/warm.jpg

Leysdown, north Kent

Retron
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 16:03:29

#910

...and the MetO text forecast doubles down on dross next week! It matches what the raw output is showing and is, of course, perfectly timed for my break in London.

"On the cloudy side at times over the weekend, perhaps with the odd shower. Some sunny spells developing too, as very warm, increasingly humid conditions establish into the new week."

Leysdown, north Kent

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 17:05:05

#911

12s are a mixed bag. GFS v progressive with a Tuesday breakdown. GEM brings back HLB and is horrific. UKMO keeps the heat going out to 168h.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Brian Gaze
Administration

20 June 2024 17:46:15

#912

Arpege going for 32C on Monday.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1

Rob K
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 18:12:56

#913

GEM is by far the worst of the bunch of the 12Zs so far*. GFS does break it down but it is temporary and solid HP builds in for early July. UKM has low pressure in the wings but looks decent for the next week. Let's see where ECM goes.

*if you like hot weather!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 18:24:13

#914

Arpege going for 32C on Monday.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

UKV only has 28c Monday but 31c Tuesday

Any reason we can't see all of the hours on Arpege?

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 18:49:06

#915

Not a bad ECM 12z upto 192h. But HLB over GL showing again which I think is unlikely.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

David M Porter
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 19:43:49

#916

Yes charts becoming more and more unsettled. The charts at one point looked to be heading for a pattern change to HP dominated. But they have gone back to where we have been for most of Spring. The end of June is often where the summer pattern starts. Unsettled summer? You wouldn't bet against it.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

That certainly proved to be the case last year, Ally. After a hot start to last summer, the heat faded at the end of June and never really returned for most of the country for the rest of the meteorogical summer. There was the hot first week of September, but that doesn't really count as being part of summer, at least not meteorogically speaking.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

+1

DEW
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 19:55:07

#917

Yes charts becoming more and more unsettled. The charts at one point looked to be heading for a pattern change to HP dominated. But they have gone back to where we have been for most of Spring. The end of June is often where the summer pattern starts. Unsettled summer? You wouldn't bet against it.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

St Swithin's Day = 15 July

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

Polar Low
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 20:04:13

#918

I wouldn’t rule out 30c by Sunday just goes to show you don’t need amazing uppers at this time of year
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=78&mode=31&map=300
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=72&mode=16&map=300

Rob K
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 20:31:33

#919

Not a bad ECM 12z upto 192h. But HLB over GL showing again which I think is unlikely.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

ECM is not too bad. It lets a trough in but by the end of the run it looks like HP will build back in à la GFS.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
Advanced Member

20 June 2024 22:38:53

#920

Arpege going for 32C on Monday.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Possible near or at 30C here on Monday before I travel out on Tue when it break down so early but hope settled and warmer early July. Need full azure blue skies to deliver those high temps as the chart show.

Retron
Advanced Member

21 June 2024 03:46:12

#921

The MetO text forecast ups the ante even more, with the worst weather (as far as I'm concerned) of the summer so far in the forecast. The automated has 24/23/25/25/25/25/25 and lots of sunshine, while the text forecast says:

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:
Rather cloudy start Sunday, but this breaking to give some very warm sunshine. Turning fairly hot and quite humid Monday and Tuesday, with sunny spells, once any early mist clears.

Not one of their finest (it can't be "fairly hot", it's either "hot" or "very warm", according to their own guidelines), but I'm sure the prospect of "hot" and "humid" will have the heat-hounds salivating. Unfortunately unlike snow in winter, hot and humid weather is guaranteed every summer!

I'll pin my hopes on the GFS, which shows some heavy rain on Wednesday and fresher, average conditions on Thursday and Friday. However, considering today's torrential downpours (as shown up to a couple of days ago) have poofed, I suspect the same will happen again!

Edited by user 21 June 2024 03:50:35 | Reason: Not specified

Leysdown, north Kent

+1

Jiries
Advanced Member

21 June 2024 04:11:15

#922

The MetO text forecast ups the ante even more, with the worst weather (as far as I'm concerned) of the summer so far in the forecast. The automated has 24/23/25/25/25/25/25 and lots of sunshine, while the text forecast says:

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:
Rather cloudy start Sunday, but this breaking to give some very warm sunshine. Turning fairly hot and quite humid Monday and Tuesday, with sunny spells, once any early mist clears.

Not one of their finest (it can't be "fairly hot", it's either "hot" or "very warm", according to their own guidelines), but I'm sure the prospect of "hot" and "humid" will have the heat-hounds salivating. Unfortunately unlike snow in winter, hot and humid weather is guaranteed every summer!

I'll pin my hopes on the GFS, which shows some heavy rain on Wednesday and fresher, average conditions on Thursday and Friday. However, considering today's torrential downpours (as shown up to a couple of days ago) have poofed, I suspect the same will happen again!

Originally Posted by: Retron

25C is not classed as hot just warm level. I never read or watch those 3rd world forecasting systems here. They were top class range of forecasting before they dumb down especially the BBC graphic before.

+2

Retron
Advanced Member

21 June 2024 04:21:53

#923

25C is not classed as hot just warm level. I never read or watch those 3rd world forecasting systems here. They were top class range of forecasting before they dumb down especially the BBC graphic before.

Originally Posted by: Jiries

Those 25s are from the new automated system, which has been within a degree of reality - it's been superb so far and has completely outclassed the GFS (which has 17/22/22/24/17 instead). Bear in mind too that's 25C with winds from the North Sea, which is presently 16C off the coast of Sheppey!

As you'd expect, if you look inland (e.g. Heathrow), you'll see 27s and 28s. Not scorching, no, and right on the borderline of "hot" (which is 6C or more above average). I would have said "very warm", hence my comments on the MetO text forecast.

It's interesting, as an aside, how sloppy they've become with their terms. It's perhaps unsurprising that the official definitions of "warm", "hot", "cold" etc aren't easy to find on their site...

Leysdown, north Kent