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Rob K
Sunday, June 9, 2024 7:52:55 AM
The end of the coming week is looking pretty dreadful with a big trough trapped over the country again. 

Having said that it is currently beautiful with clear blue skies but I suspect the usual pattern of the last few days of cloud building as soon as the sun gets higher in the sky will continue, as there is an awful lot of moisture around still. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
Sunday, June 9, 2024 8:38:14 AM

That would just be like the thing of course because by that time, I will then just be wanting to get on with autumn so it will be a bit too late by then in my books.

Having said that, the current pattern isn't actually all that dissimilar to the pattern of June 2013 when high pressure to our west led to a cooler than average month overall.

Yet, we still managed to get a decent summer overall in that year, so you just never know what might happen.

For that reason, I'm not completely writing this summer off just yet but we are in completely different times now, so just because something happened in 2013 from a similar situation doesn't necessarily mean that the same thing will happen this year as well.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



2013 was the first decent summer in many parts of the UK since 2006, after six poor/very poor ones on the bounce. Mind you, it would have been very hard to have had one that was worse than 2012. That really is the worst summer I can clearly remember in the 44-and-a-half years of my life thus far.

Going back further, I seem to recall that summer 1990 started with a rather disappointing June and early July wasn't great either. However, things changed notably in mid July with a much better second half of the month, and the then hottest day on record in the UK was recorded in the early days of August. I don't think the remainder of August was too bad either for the most part, although not quite as warm.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Saint Snow
Sunday, June 9, 2024 9:25:26 AM

2013 was the first decent summer in many parts of the UK since 2006, after six poor/very poor ones on the bounce.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Even that 2013 summer essentially ended around the last week of July.

(But we had a great spell in the July)

2014 was a similar pattern.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ozone_aurora
Sunday, June 9, 2024 9:47:07 AM

Even that 2013 summer essentially ended around the last week of July.

(But we had a great spell in the July)

2014 was a similar pattern.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


For August 2013 - Not here in Lowestoft. Although not as good as July, it still saw a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather. It was a pleasant month overall.

For August 2014 - That was a different story for Lowestoft. The main 2014 summer did come to an abrupt end by 10 August, and the rest of the month was cool, unsettled and wet. The hurricane Bertha was a big game changer in this, changing the jet stream and setting off this distinctly autumnal trend.
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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, June 9, 2024 9:55:12 AM

For 2013 - Not here in Lowestoft. Although not as good as July, it still saw a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather. It was a pleasant month overall.

For 2014 - That was a different story for Lowestoft. The main 2014 summer did come to an abrupt end by 10 August, and the rest of the month was cool, unsettled and wet. The hurricane Bertha was a big game changer in this, changing the jetstream and setting off this distinctly autumnal trend.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



I have noticed that the Suffolk and Essex coasts have their own micro climate in mid to late summer. Typically when the weather turns crap during the school holidays in the UK, these parts hang on to mainly dry, warm weather with plenty of sunshine. Probably the place to go for a sunny UK holiday. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
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ozone_aurora
Sunday, June 9, 2024 10:08:36 AM

I have noticed that the Suffolk and Essex coasts have their own micro climate in mid to late summer. Typically when the weather turns crap during the school holidays in the UK, these parts hang on to mainly dry, warm weather with plenty of sunshine. Probably the place to go for a sunny UK holiday. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


That's right, yes. For example, happened in August 2012; it was quite unsettled overall, but we had some very warm, dry, sunny spells. Manchester and the NW stayed predominantly cool, unsettled and wet.

Even in great summer of 1989, the warm, dry sunny conditions continued for much of August for SE UK. However, it turned cool and unsettled in the NW.
cultman1
Sunday, June 9, 2024 11:50:36 AM
Going back to the model output despite rain and winds from the SW are we beginning to see a change in temperature and a potential change away from this extraordinary period of well below average temperatures? 
picturesareme
Sunday, June 9, 2024 3:33:10 PM

Going back to the model output despite rain and winds from the SW are we beginning to see a change in temperature and a potential change away from this extraordinary period of well below average temperatures? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Every day for at least the past week has hit at least 19C down here with most into the low 20's so i wouldn't call it well below let alone 'extraordinary'. Could be a few notable chillier days in the coming week mind. 
Retron
Sunday, June 9, 2024 3:41:02 PM

Every day for at least the past week has hit at least 19C down here with most into the low 20's so i wouldn't call it well below let alone 'extraordinary'. Could be a few notable chillier days in the coming week mind. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Indeed, if these recent CET maxima are "extraordinary", what on earth would you call the maxima we had in early May, which went without much comment in the media at large? Britain isn't in the Med, etc, etc.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

(I do appreciate for summer fans it'll be disappointing, but they've really been spoilt of late. Try being a winter fan - we set several warm CET daily records last winter. Chances of us setting even a single cold record in the summer? Zero, I'd say.

Also, remember the Euro monsoon, which traditionally affects the UK in early June. Looks to have been the case up north, but it's missed us down here so far... the models show cooler and wetter weather even here next week, but I don't have much faith!)
Leysdown, north Kent
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David M Porter
Sunday, June 9, 2024 7:19:40 PM

Indeed, if these recent CET maxima are "extraordinary", what on earth would you call the maxima we had in early May, which went without much comment in the media at large? Britain isn't in the Med, etc, etc.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

(I do appreciate for summer fans it'll be disappointing, but they've really been spoilt of late. Try being a winter fan - we set several warm CET daily records last winter. Chances of us setting even a single cold record in the summer? Zero, I'd say.

Also, remember the Euro monsoon, which traditionally affects the UK in early June. Looks to have been the case up north, but it's missed us down here so far... the models show cooler and wetter weather even here next week, but I don't have much faith!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 



There hasn't been that much rain or many showers where I live, Darren. I suspect that NW corner has had most of what showers there have been.

It has certainly been cooler than average here as it has been virtually everywhere since last Sunday, but most of what rain has fallen has been in the form of showers rather than persistent rain. I have seen June start much worse than this in my time, and in the recent past too.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
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Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, June 9, 2024 7:55:16 PM
Just looking back at last July and August the charts now are remarkably similar.  Which is a worry , that lasted 6 to 8 weeks . Could easily happen again. We need a pattern change. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
Sunday, June 9, 2024 8:38:09 PM

Just looking back at last July and August the charts now are remarkably similar.  Which is a worry , that lasted 6 to 8 weeks . Could easily happen again. We need a pattern change. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



In the meantime, we have a classic "if only it were winter" synoptic scenario coming up in the next few days as the models continue to bring us absolutely no sign of anything even remotely resembling "summer" on the horizon, at least in the shorter term.🤢

Where are those northerlies in the winter though, when we're actually looking for them to deliver some cold weather here?😡
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, June 9, 2024 8:48:53 PM

In the meantime, we have a classic "if only it were winter" synoptic scenario coming up in the next few days as the models continue to bring us absolutely no sign of summer on the horizon, at least in the shorter term.🤢

Where are those northerlies in the winter though, when we're actually looking for them to deliver some cold weather here?😡

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Thr UK has had no luck recently that's for sure.  I'm really depressed about this summer think it will be an absolute stinker 2007 esque . June looks a complete write off already i think July will go the same way as the HLB and omega block just aren't shifting.  My prediction is we won't hit 28c until August maybe not at all. One of the worst summer's of all time on the way.
Copious flooding as well.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
Sunday, June 9, 2024 10:15:29 PM
There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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Gandalf The White
Sunday, June 9, 2024 11:13:18 PM

There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



It certainly doesn’t look great if your definition of summer is long periods of very warm or hot, sunny weather. The point here, I think, is how expectations have gradually shifted as a result of climate change. It’s perhaps noteworthy for this reason: I’m pretty sure we’re still around what was average in the 1961-1990 base period.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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Lionel Hutz
Sunday, June 9, 2024 11:22:45 PM

There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


https://news.sky.com/story/uk-had-its-warmest-may-and-spring-on-record-met-office-figures-show-
6https://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2024/0605/1453123-may-weather/  

Say what you like but we've we've has the  warmest May on record both sides of the Irish Sea. Pretty remarkable given that it's been miserable for alot of the time.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Monday, June 10, 2024 6:54:14 AM

There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Helen Willetts on Countryfile would agree with you. Last night she attributed the high average temp for Spring to the mild nights that we've had, and in particular pointed out that large parts of the country had had no frost during this time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Monday, June 10, 2024 7:26:25 AM
WX this morning still showing cool for all areas bordering Channel / North Sea / Baltic in week 1, but in week 2 an advance of warmer weather on a broad front (though still far from hot) as far as N England / S Scandinavia though the real heat is reserved for W Russia. Rain quite widespread for Europe in both weeks; in week 1 concentrated on Ireland and in week 2 S Germany. Dry for Mediterranean coasts.

GFS Op - consistent with the output from the last few days. Current LP moving to Scandinavia trailing N-lies behind it, HP one day only on Wed, then trough from the NW reaching Ireland 990mb Sun 16th and staying to Wed 19th. Some rather indeterminate weather follows, eventually resolving to show Britain in a col Sun 23rd between LPs on the Atlantic and over Denmark. This persists but with HP approaching S England.

ECM - as for GFS until Tue 18th when the LP suddenly moves E-wards to Luxembourg 1000mb Thu 20th with some quite warm air from E Europe circulating around it this reaching Britain.

GEM - closer to ECM; the trough arrives on the 16th but spreads out across Britain before drifting slowly SE Thu 20th

GEFS - cool now, back to norm around Sun 16th (earlier in N , later in S), staying there with good ens agreement though a few members are warmer esp in N after Sun 23rd. Rain in most runs in modest amounts; no real pattern but indication of drier later. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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Rob K
Monday, June 10, 2024 8:52:48 AM

It certainly doesn’t look great if your definition of summer is long periods of very warm or hot, sunny weather. The point here, I think, is how expectations have gradually shifted as a result of climate change. It’s perhaps noteworthy for this reason: I’m pretty sure we’re still around what was average in the 1961-1990 base period.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes the constant moaning on social media about how cold it is, people thinking single figures overnight are some kind of extreme etc etc - it all shows how much the UK climate has changed.

I do think though that all the talk about "nothing decent until August/September" is rather premature on June 10. 

If you want a bit of straw-clutching optimism look at the CFS 9-month run, plenty of heat there for early July. 😀
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
Monday, June 10, 2024 9:02:43 AM

Yes the constant moaning on social media about how cold it is, people thinking single figures overnight are some kind of extreme etc etc - it all shows how much the UK climate has changed.

I do think though that all the talk about "nothing decent until August/September" is rather premature on June 10. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


As I've said, since about the year 2000 there has been an assumption online than the UK has a much warmer climate than it really does - it was around then that the forecasts on the Beeb started getting all emotional, too, with presenters saying 8C in January would feel "bitterly cold", for example, rather than reporting it as a mild day but feeling cold in the wind, as would have been the case before.

Fast forward 24 years and I genuinely think people assume we have a Med climate! Even down here the mid-June mean min (91-20) is 10.8, but it's been damned hard to get into single figures at all in recent years - it's nice to have a reminder of what UK weather used to be like.

And you're spot on about writing off the summer on June 10th... writing off winter on December 10th would be just as silly, albeit in recent decades a winter writeoff is much more likely to happen than a cold summer. The gradual but relentless shifting right of the temperature bell-curve is a dreadful thing if you want to see snow.

It won't be long before the 850s get back to normal, but until then I'm going to enjoy the novelty of a spell that's average or even - perhaps - a bit below.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
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