theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2024 07:38:52
WX temp charts show a warm Europe for the next two weeks, extra hot around the Baltic, cooler patches for N Scotland up to Iceland, also the Alps, and definitely cold for N Russia. Very dry in week 1 for Scandinavia with rain around the fringes (incl W Britain), this very dry area expanding W-wards in week 2 to include Britain (except maybe the SE) and heavy rain France / Alps / Balkans.

GFS Op - shallow trough moving E across Britain tomorrow, followed by HP from the SW, its centre slowly moving E-wards. By Wed 26th it's 1020mb Norway with  LP having spread N from France to Britain 1000mb Irish Sea Thu 27th. HP re-establishes as a SW-NE ridge across Scotland which lasts through to Sun 7th but with continental LP never far away from SE England and NE-lies through the Channel.

ECM - like GFS at first but the LP Thu 27th moves first up the N Sea and then settles at 995mb W Scotland Sat 29th having imported cold air from Greenland to create an unseasonably cold trough covering Britain for that weekend.

GEM - close to GFS output (LP 27th over S England but soon replaced by HP)

GEFS - warm to Wed 27th with good ens agreement, then dropping back to norm with the usual spread developing. Rain most likely around 28th (big totals in SW, not so much in NE), mainly dry before 27th, intermittent rain in various runs after. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Chunky Pea
21 June 2024 07:47:41

Laughable HLB on the ECM this morning.  Pretty much zero chance of it happening.  ECM has been terrible in the 168h/240h zone. Cannon fodder model atm.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



As much as I hope the ECM is on the ball this morning, it is sadly every bit as giddy and chaotic as the other models at that range. 
 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Taylor1740
21 June 2024 10:19:18
Autumn returning again later next week on the GFS 6z, after we've had our 5 days of Summer ☁️☔
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2024 10:33:53

Autumn returning again later next week on the GFS 6z, after we've had our 5 days of Summer ☁️☔

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Much better than the ECM though, has no HLB so HP can build in from the south. 

Edit. HLB turns up and it goes all Day After Tomorrow. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2024 11:10:37
Interesting little upgrade on the GEFS 6z. Quite a few more ensembles keeping the warmth until Friday including the Control.  Hopefully the start of something. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2024 11:19:32

Those 25s are from the new automated system, which has been within a degree of reality - it's been superb so far and has completely outclassed the GFS (which has 17/22/22/24/17 instead). Bear in mind too that's 25C with winds from the North Sea, which is presently 16C off the coast of Sheppey!

As you'd expect, if you look inland (e.g. Heathrow), you'll see 27s and 28s. Not scorching, no, and right on the borderline of "hot" (which is 6C or more above average). I would have said "very warm", hence my comments on the MetO text forecast.

It's interesting, as an aside, how sloppy they've become with their terms. It's perhaps unsurprising that the official definitions of "warm", "hot", "cold" etc aren't easy to find on their site...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thing is, to me 25C is hot, or at least the start of 'hot'. If hot is 6C above average and my summer average max would be 19/20C so that figures. Depends where you are. In London 25C is only a couple of degrees above average so would probably not be viewed in the same way. Still, this is diverging away from the models now so mods could move this to a more appropriate thread if discussion continues?
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+1
Rob K
21 June 2024 15:22:26

Both GFS and GEM show a quickish return to HP after Wednesday's breakdown. 

UKV has 28/29c Monday 29/30c Tuesday 

ARPEGE has 31c Monday 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



GEM is OK but the latest GFS keeps low pressure in charge for the duration. JMA is even worse (talking of cannon fodder models).

I think we have been led up the garden path again, as it looks like a blink-and-you'll-miss-it waft of warmth.

Although having looked at the GEFS posted above, the operational run is one of the worst of the bunch for warm and settled weather.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2024 15:31:42
GFS for Sun 7th (T +384) has a northerly plunge for Cornwall and a southerly plume for Greenland! Crazy weather, just hope it doesn't verify - and at the rate that the charts are flip-flopping, the eventual situation could be quite different.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2024 16:51:26

Interesting little upgrade on the GEFS 6z. Quite a few more ensembles keeping the warmth until Friday including the Control.  Hopefully the start of something. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Well the 12s continue the theme of extending the warm spell next week.  GEM in particular.  
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
21 June 2024 17:07:32

Well the 12s continue the theme of extending the warm spell next week.  GEM in particular.  
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Indeed, looking a lot better on the 12z's.
Lovely.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
21 June 2024 17:17:28
Some very warm runs on the 12Z GEFS. Pert 2 for instance brings the 20C isotherm up to the south coast.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2024 20:19:51
Our Local Authority has put out a Yellow Met Office Health-Heat warning, that runs from Monday until 6pm Thursday.  I believe that triggers at 27c, so the Met O are obviously seeing some summer weather next week. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
21 June 2024 20:53:20

Our Local Authority has put out a Yellow Met Office Health-Heat warning, that runs from Monday until 6pm Thursday.  I believe that triggers at 27c, so the Met O are obviously seeing some summer weather next week. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



They're in place for all the English regions with the exception of the NE: https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/weather-health-alerts/heat  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Matty H
21 June 2024 21:38:30

Our Local Authority has put out a Yellow Met Office Health-Heat warning, that runs from Monday until 6pm Thursday.  I believe that triggers at 27c, so the Met O are obviously seeing some summer weather next week. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Pointless. Not communicated through any mainstream media. Means absolutely nothing to the vast majority of the UK population, and I’m not even suggesting it should be communicated widely

ticks a box
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Jiries
21 June 2024 22:59:53

Pointless. Not communicated through any mainstream media. Means absolutely nothing to the vast majority of the UK population, and I’m not even suggesting it should be communicated widely

ticks a box

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



At 27C is not a heatwave as it just warm and tad above average for end of June 23C for London.  Over reacting and only should put warnings for temperature over 30C.  This coming warm spell is bog standard and normal for summer season.
Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2024 05:03:04
Nice upgrades this morning for extending the warmth through next week. GEM,  GFS and Arpege all have 30c at some point.👍

No significant breakdown being shown now as well. Good news for Summer fans. 🤞it holds.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
22 June 2024 05:14:00

Nice upgrades this morning for extending the warmth through next week. GEM,  GFS and Arpege all have 30c at some point.👍

No significant breakdown being shown now as well. Good news for Summer fans. 🤞it holds.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Let hope the models knowing we are in summer season to keep churning out summery charts right to Sept.  Need warm to very warm July first half as I am off work to do painting conservatory walls so need to open door and windows while warm outside.  Greenland don’t deserve having all out HP all the time and much needed LP most times to keep ice sheet minimise melting.
+2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 05:50:43

Pointless. Not communicated through any mainstream media. Means absolutely nothing to the vast majority of the UK population, and I’m not even suggesting it should be communicated widely

ticks a box

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I agree, it’s only meant for health and social care settings.  My point was, the Met Office are expecting temperatures to reach 27c. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 05:54:34

At 27C is not a heatwave as it just warm and tad above average for end of June 23C for London.  Over reacting and only should put warnings for temperature over 30C.  This coming warm spell is bog standard and normal for summer season.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+3
doctormog
22 June 2024 06:12:02

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Absolutely, and that is why they are not publicised, at this level at least, in the same manner as severe weather warnings.

Its nice to see the output continue to look more summery albeit not totally settled.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Matty H
22 June 2024 06:54:21

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



My niece is a nurse practitioner, and one of my friend’s partner is a GP. I’ve messaged my mate and my niece and neither get this communicated or were even aware of it, so I’m not sure it’s overly relevant at all to the health care sector. Maybe more so for social care

Anyway, that’s off topic. What isn’t off topic is the charts look ok again this morning. Being picky they are still nowhere near as high-dominated or hot and humid as I would like, but this will do for starters
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2024 06:58:53
ECM also much improved run. Very warm/hot , looks thundery as well.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TheJudge
22 June 2024 07:00:04

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



This is true, as I work directly in health and social care, you will see the old and very young people being admitted into A&E/hospital more frequently during a spell of warmer weather. Often dehydrated and with sunburn. 

It is a reminder to community health care workers and neighbours to make sure the elderly are well hydrated and are ok between social care visits. You will often see elderly with their heating on full even when temps outside are above 25 degrees. Might seem daft but elerdly who cannot move around the house independently still feel cold regardless how warm it is outside.

What we see as a period of summery weather, can be a killer for some. Remember to check your on your elderly neighbours, even when we do not think the weather is extreme for us 😊 

 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 07:31:43
WX charts scale back the warmth in Europe in week 2, especially around the Baltic. Britain grades from warm in the south to cool in the north; continental Europe stays generally warm; coastal Norway and Iceland rather cold. Dry from Britain to the Baltic in week 1 with rain in Iceland and in S Europe; in week 2 the latter dies out while the former extends S-wards to Scotland and Norway.

GFS Op - HP in from the west to start the week, but LP from France links up with a deeper one near Iceland so all of Britain is under a broad trough by Fri 28th. HP, again from the SW, re-establishes for next weekend, but sinks S-wards by Wed 3rd to usher in a spell of zonal weather with W-ly winds, later NW-ly, fine for S Britain. less settled in the N.

ECM - the trough on Fri 28th is more concentrated in the N (990mb Malin) and then drifts S-wards, filling, so although pressure rises for next weekend, it's more by default and described better as shallow LP.

GEM - generates the deep LP as per ECM but a day earlier , but then moves it quickly NE so HP soon back and firmly in control

GEFS - warm until Thu 27th and then temp dropping back to norm with general ens agreement. From Mon 1st mean is slightly above norm but with plenty of variation, in particular op & control going in opposite directions. Not much rain in the S & E but a few runs have big peaks. In the NW, more continual from Thu 27th but relatively small amounts. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
David M Porter
22 June 2024 08:43:45
ECM seems to me to be somewhat out of kilter with GFS and UKMO this morning. ECM wants to keep LP over or just to the SW of the UK whereas the latter two models have it placed further north with less by way of nothern blocking. We shall see which of them turns out to be nearest the mark.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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