Cue comments of him being a mild ramper 

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Alex Deakin is a renowned mild ramper anyway, don't listen to him 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The first bit of that forecast looked fair enough to me. The milder uppers are hitting the North and rain will move down here tonight. Although other places may be drier the showers which do fall may only be wintry on hills from later tonight?

What puzzled me is the graphics showing almost everywhere being dry in the northerly later on Saturday and Sunday despite the warnings for moderate to heavy falls of snow. If the models used in the graphics cannot cope with convective precipitation (in the way the Met Office forecasts obviously can) then there should be some professional intervention (with a white spray can ).

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BBC Northern Ireland's forecaster has just said there will be a fair amount of snow over the eastern part of Northern Ireland this evening and for the first part of the night, but with slightly warmer weather following behind (he showed minimums of 1c across Northern Ireland).

 

He added that warnings of snow and ice are back in place again for all of Northern Ireland for Saturday and Sunday.

 

EDIT:  We now have persistent sleet and a thaw (on low ground anyway) of the snow that fell and lay between about 17.00-18.00.

Weather online update:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20150129 

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Those temperatures provide a reality check! I know they're supposed to be in town centres but 7C in the south at this time of year isn't particularly cold.  

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Ha! Saturday morning SW has temps of +4c in the cities - so hardly cold. Also Alex Deakin was a little Vague - Will or will there not be any more prolonged sleet or snow from this front Saturday night into Sunday or from this front coming in from the Atlantic during Tuesday!?

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updated alert from the Met Office this morning which doesn't seem to tie in with the charts/forecasts (regarding snow)

 

meto

I just heard BBC news weather presenter said that I quote "Many of us could wake up Sunday morning with a fresh covering of snow!"

 

Met Office update:

 

Cold weather isn't done with us yet: - Finally the south may get into the northerly wind of colder air:

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Feb 2015 to Thursday 12 Feb 2015:

 

The general cold feel to the weather will continue during the first week of February, as the northerly winds bring hail, sleet and snow showers to the country. Showers will be frequent across northern parts and may affect other coastal areas at times, with widespread overnight frost and ice too. There is a low probability of more widespread rain and snow over south-western areas, in the first couple of days. Strong northerly winds at first, with gales in places, will lead to a significant wind chill, this gradually easing. The driest and brightest weather will be across sheltered southern parts. There are signals for a change to less cold temperatures and spells of rain by next weekend, though there is still a risk of snow, frost and ice at times.

 

UK Outlook for Friday 13 Feb 2015 to Friday 27 Feb 2015:

 

It looks most likely that unsettled conditions will continue across much of the UK with temperatures closer to normal when compared to the start of February. This may be more obvious across parts of southern and western Britain where it might be a little wetter than average as spells of wind and rain make their way in from the Atlantic. However, there is the possibility of pressure building around the middle of the month bringing drier conditions but with colder temperatures than average, particularly to the south.

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Easterly

A watch out for the East Midlands for Tuesday for snow showers including Leicestershire.

Dose mention the risk of some locally heavy falls are possible.

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They're only putting these warnings out to cover their arses in case it goes tits up, or they get it right.

Of course they are there is nothing to suggest cold or snow. What do these professionals know

It seems to have got lost in all the overlapping yellows, but there is another more general warning of snow tomorrow:

"Further sleet and snow showers will affect parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Saturday morning, with snow falling to lower levels and extending further south through the day. This will lead to some large accumulations on high ground, with some settling at low levels too. These will be associated with strong winds (gusts 50-60 mph across northwest Scotland) so drifting and temporary blizzard conditions are likely. Some longer spells of sleet and snow are also possible, especially across the high ground of Scotland and northeast England."

"Following a temporary less cold period on Friday and into Saturday morning, a very cold airmass will spread southwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland accompanied by strong winds, spreading southwards into northern England and north Wales later in the day. Frequent showers are likely to form in this airmass, and with the cold air snow is likely to accumulate, even to low levels in places. Periods of enhanced snowfall are possible within this general flow, perhaps more especially across the high ground of Scotland and northeast England, but these details are more uncertain.

There is the potential for disruption throughout this period due to the accumulating snow and ice but also with temporary blizzard conditions leading to very difficult driving conditions."

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The important word in the last sentence of the warning is "potential". So beware.

Sounds like this cold spell is starting to get seriously upgraded 🙂

Depends where you live - not IMBY.  

The warning for snow showers from the west at the weekend extends to Staffordshire and Shropshire... but not West Midlands.  The new Tuesday warning for snow showers from the east extends to Warwickshire... but not West Midlands.  Last night's 'polar low' split its heaviest precipitation to the north and south of Wolverhampton and even managed to thaw the frost/ice that had previously formed!!  

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Anyone know what time each day the fax charts are usually updated?  Cheers.  

Same for Sussex - we're not forecast to get anything out of this...   the Met Office warnings only talk about ice down here.

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I don't think it's an upgrade as such. The Met office have been predicting a very cold spell for the first half of next week for some time now. It's just that that period is now coming into the timeframe where they can start to think in terms of where the snow is likely to fall.

We can expect lot's of refinement over coming days with some areas getting added and some getting removed. A bit of a rollercoaster for snow fans. But that's pretty much the norm for any cold spell in the UK!

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To be honest I'm not too fussed.  For a start, as much as I'm a snow-lover, it's only weather.  And it's just so much more disappointing every time I'm in a warning area and nothing happens.  

We got some of that heavier precipitation here in north Worcs. Which would have been great, had it actually been snow and not cold rain from the word go!

Bit of an epic fail (can something be a bit epic!? ) for the wider western side of the Midlands in general then - doesn't make me feel any better.    

 

I don't want to hear any more on this forum about how a 'polar low' is a northerly's holy grail - they're rubbish!! 

TBH it was surprising it developed in the first place as for me the uppers were the wrong side of the boundary (from what I've read and examples of past events, uppers need to be -10 or less and ssts around +7 to generate the vertical thermal gradient required to feed the circulation). You can gather that with uppers of <-10 entrained in the vortex, normally we're talking snow all the way. In last nights case, many of the parameters associated with snow were the wrong side of marginal hence a sleety rain fest for most.

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Yes Neil, the occluding cyclonic area to the east over Europe was textbook in terms of the formation of a Polar Low over the cold feed further west, and indeed the formation and early life of yesterday's feature was typical. However, it quickly moved into a less favourable environment and the thermal differential between surface and uppers just wasn't conducive to sustained tight convection. As I said last night, it was not a good example of a PL, so I would not judge the potency of PLs on last night's example.

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As you can see I have a very light-hearted approach to my interest in the weather.  Always like to see the more informed opinion/interpretation.  I've been lurking for many years and your posts, Neil, are amongst those I'll actively seek to find in a thread.  

 

Arcus - I may not understand all the physics but I've picked up enough to know last night was a pish poor excuse for 'polar low' rather than what is usually discussed on the forum.  Hence the multitude of is it or isn't it posts last night.  Arguably the most surprising thing about it IMBY was that the frost/ice that had formed by 22:30 under clear skies was gone when I went out at 07:45 under equally clear skies.  Didn't expect that!!