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Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2024 06:45:28
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“met4cast” on Twitter saying that strengthening easterly trade winds could be a bad sign for settled weather (negative AAM)

https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1804452585530614229?s=46&t=pi-PW2h-zayk3Ew8WL18KA 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I cant post the chart but latest CFS AAM chart( 22nd June) looks OK. Rising to neutral then positive for early July. 

Edit, here you go , posted by Northern Illinois University on Google 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/&ved=2ahUKEwi72uCpkPGGAxX3XkEAHSiFDkYQFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2U7YJ-9hFypzGYGu2J6rIv 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2024 06:57:57
Ecm the best of the bunch this morning.  Nice rebuild of HP after the breakdown.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2024 07:02:07
WX summary charts not loading this morning. Last night they hadn't changed much from the morning's output: WX charts scale back the warmth in Europe in week 2, especially around the Baltic. Britain grades from warm in the south to cool in the north; continental Europe stays generally warm; coastal Norway and Iceland rather cold.

GFS Op - Current HP with foundation of warm air squeezed out on Thu 27th by a link-up between LP Iceland and LP France (BBC this morning showing rain for the NW and for the S Wed into Thu). These two form a trough lying N-S, sometimes over Britain, sometimes down the N Sea and persisting through to Sat 6th between HP a few hundred miles to E and W. Even on the 6th the LP is not far away, but HP gets closer to the SW and starts to bring in NW-lies.

ECM - emphasises (as previously) the Icelandic end of the trough on Thu 27th (985mb Rockall) but restores HP quickly to cover Britain by Sun 30th before moving to a more zonal W-ly set-up on Wed 3rd (yesterday's ECM kept the trough in place so a significant upgrade even if it adds to an air of uncertainty)

GEM - also has the trough from Thu 27th, but like ECM by Mon 1st HP from the W has pushed the trough E-wards, at the expense of bringing in cool W/NW winds, but looking dry and settled.

GEFS - warm to about Thu 27th, then cool to Wed 3rd, finally back to norm, moderately good agreement of ensemble members throughout. Rain starts Wed 26th/Thu 27th and persists though amounts tend to decline with time, and are never enormous except for one or two runs in the SW,  .
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Rob K
23 June 2024 08:10:15

Looks to be quite a consistent signal now for a cool westerly to setup as we go into July.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



I’m not seeing much of a consistent signal for anything beyond a warm few days until Thursday with a cooler and more unsettled weekend. That could be anything from a change of regime to a temporary blip before high pressure builds in again. 

It does look as if should HP rebuild it is more likely to be further west which will mean a somewhat cooler setup but it could still be very pleasant. The dire charts with a trough getting stuck over the UK from the second half of this week seem to have disappeared for now, anyway. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2024 08:24:34
Been looking at the AIFS model recently.  The AI version of the ECM. It's verification stats hold up very well marginally better in fact compared to the ECM especially in the 168h-240h range. It's been forecasting HP nudging in to the UK at the beginning of July for a while now. Not perfect but not bad especially for the South.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
23 June 2024 09:36:57

I’m not seeing much of a consistent signal for anything beyond a warm few days until Thursday with a cooler and more unsettled weekend. That could be anything from a change of regime to a temporary blip before high pressure builds in again. 

It does look as if should HP rebuild it is more likely to be further west which will mean a somewhat cooler setup but it could still be very pleasant. The dire charts with a trough getting stuck over the UK from the second half of this week seem to have disappeared for now, anyway. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



That’s pretty much been the theme since this started to show. Never been more than a few days. Nothing still to suggest that’ll change. Potentially a rebuild of high pressure but way too far out to place any faith in 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Chunky Pea
23 June 2024 09:41:37
Roll on autumn. Sick of this eternal daylight. It's everywhere. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+2
Taylor1740
23 June 2024 09:45:03

I’m not seeing much of a consistent signal for anything beyond a warm few days until Thursday with a cooler and more unsettled weekend. That could be anything from a change of regime to a temporary blip before high pressure builds in again. 

It does look as if should HP rebuild it is more likely to be further west which will mean a somewhat cooler setup but it could still be very pleasant. The dire charts with a trough getting stuck over the UK from the second half of this week seem to have disappeared for now, anyway. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The GEFS are pretty confident at least on a cooler spell in early July with some rain around. As always it could all change but at this stage a heatwave in the first 10 days or so of July is looking unlikely.
​​​​
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Jiries
23 June 2024 09:54:51

That’s pretty much been the theme since this started to show. Never been more than a few days. Nothing still to suggest that’ll change. Potentially a rebuild of high pressure but way too far out to place any faith in 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



This phantom so called warm spell seem to be cloudy one as today from reading other reports extensive band of unforecast clouds rolled in and where it came from?  Today 25C seem unlikely without full sun.
Matty H
23 June 2024 11:04:06

This phantom so called warm spell seem to be cloudy one as today from reading other reports extensive band of unforecast clouds rolled in and where it came from?  Today 25C seem unlikely without full sun.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Yep, complete shambles of a forecast for today so far for many. Not all. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
picturesareme
23 June 2024 11:09:26

This phantom so called warm spell seem to be cloudy one as today from reading other reports extensive band of unforecast clouds rolled in and where it came from?  Today 25C seem unlikely without full sun.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



The cloud was forecasted by the met office and its already 22C down here on the coast despite the clouds so 25C is still very much on the cards for somewhere down south easily.
moomin75
23 June 2024 16:55:33
UKMO, ICON and GEM all look fine for the end of the week and the weekend next week.
GFS on the other hand looks distinctly Autumnal.
Let's hope the Euros and the Canadian model have this right. 
 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Bertwhistle
23 June 2024 16:56:39
12z arpege for the south gives some real, but short-lived heat, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday with a 19 minimum and 30 maximum for Wednesday locally. Let's see.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Brian Gaze
23 June 2024 17:01:39
UKM looks interesting for warm / hot weather. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Retron
23 June 2024 17:42:50
Looks like an excellent chance of 30 on both Wednesday and Thursday now... unfortunately for me, the latter is more likely here, according to the new MetO output!

It has 29C now as the high for Thursday (compared to 28 for Heathrow), but Heathrow still has 29C for Wednesday... when it's "just" 25C here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-06-23&forecastChoice=weather 

It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
23 June 2024 18:44:59

Looks like an excellent chance of 30 on both Wednesday and Thursday now... unfortunately for me, the latter is more likely here, according to the new MetO output!

It has 29C now as the high for Thursday (compared to 28 for Heathrow), but Heathrow still has 29C for Wednesday... when it's "just" 25C here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-06-23&forecastChoice=weather 

It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



The day will come (likely when we are all rotting in the grave) when future members of this forum will be talking of our present summers the way we talk now of winters in the 80s. In that it just so common now to reach temps and dewpoints that would only occur once or twice in late 20th century summers. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Rob K
23 June 2024 19:12:56
GFS is still being the party pooper which much cooler and less settled conditions than the other main models. 12Z op run was again at the lower end of the ensembles from much of the time.

ARPEGE is giving a 31C right over my location on Wednesday.

I'm sure I saw a 32C for London on the UKV earlier but that has disappeared now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
23 June 2024 19:34:09



It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



But the flip side is un winter its easier to get 7C below average than 7C above.
ozone_aurora
23 June 2024 19:55:13

GFS is still being the party pooper which much cooler and less settled conditions than the other main models. 12Z op run was again at the lower end of the ensembles from much of the time.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, indeed. I have a feeling it will set in giving a mostly unsettled July.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2024 07:20:01
WX average temps still not loading; the rest of the site looks OK.

GFS Op - current HP chased away by deeper-than-previous LP 985mb Hebrides Thu 27th, returning briefly from the SW Sun 30th until another LP from Iceland 990mb Cairngorm Wed 3rd, this one with a trough reaching S Britain. HP continues to hover out to the SW with a general W-ly flow until Wed 10th when another LP from the NW reaches Malin 1000mb. 

In summary, HP to the SW of Britain and over S Russia, with a sequence of LPs from Iceland dipping across N Britain on their way to Norway.

ECM - goes into W-ly zonal flow pattern once the first LP is out of the way. The LP on Wed 3rd does not appear and at that date pressure is fairly high over Britain, centred to the SW with a light NW-ly flow. The best of the three major models.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM with the LP on Wed 3rd present but further N, heading for Orkney and not really affecting England.

GEFS - warm to Thu 27th, mean of ens members dropping back to norm (cool for a few days in the N) and staying there to Wed 10th but on any given day there will be a run or two 5C above or below the mean. Rain at any time, very little in the SW, rather more but not that much in the N.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
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