Azores high again looking problematic next week on GFS at least.

Let's see how the rest of the run pans out

Yes I think we can write off any significant cold and snow for the next 8 days its what happens next is crucial.  at 177h here comes the trough from southern Greenland can it go south  enough and keep enough cold air with in it?

The same was true of the early stages of the GFS 00Z op, but it looked rather more interesting by day 10.

Will the 06z follow suit? We will find out shortly.

6z looks better and the 0z at 192h

not as flat much colder air digging further south.

Well it's never gonna win a popularity contest on here is it! I said the other day " Perhaps more concern might have been the Azores HP moving back in at T240, and although a warm outlier there are several warmer runs then pushing the mean back to -4C in the 12z ensembles." which was ignored.

Nevertheless, like you, I still have some optimism. It is clearly the best position we have been in this winter but it is just something that has happened many times in recent years where the AZ high pushes promised cold East and is something that has to be considered seriously, not just brushed over.

Well not as good as the 0z in the end very frustrating but the Azores high is killing us at the moment. IF GFS is correct then we are at least another 2 weeks from significant  cold.

Just one run:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_288_1.png

Buts that's frustrating. Towards end of last week and early stages of this weekend we were really looking OK.

None the less, will wait for the ensembles. This run is very different yet again compared to the 0z at the same timeframe

As I recall, a classic "Bartlett High" was one centred over Spain. Of course one centred over the Azores isn't a lot better.

Cold keeps getting put back. Greenland block is not strengthening each run and AZORES HP as many have said is still around!

It's turning out to be long wait!

Paul Bartlett was about much more than just [unwillingly] lending his name to a stubborn high pressure area over mainland Europe.

NO NORTHERN BLOCKING AT ALL even towards the end! At least in the 00z run HP was beginning to build over Scandinavia towards the end of the run!

So was last winter- at least for southern areas from what I remember reading at the time. Some northern areas did not do too badly for wintry weather at times though before the arrival of the Beast at the end of last Feb.

From what I can see, it looks as though things could get more interesting next week, if this morning's GFS 00z and 06z op runs have it right, and this morning's ECM 00z  and last night's 12z seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet. There is no point at all in worrying over what far-off FI in GFS shows; since when has it ever been reliable?

Indeed Brian.

I can't get interested in shot lived cold snaps that don't deliver.

The Azores high needs to clear off if we're to stand a chance of a proper cold spell taking hold.

At least last winter - by this time we saw quite a lot of transient sleet and wet snow and by mid January, with slider lows and north westerly winds. Also by this time last winter - I remember recording 12 or 13 night time frosts where as this year winter 18/19 only two frosts. Coldest night time min still stands around -1.5c. 

I am very wary of saying too much about Paul's views and theories because I didn't know him personally. However, he was associated with the "Bartlett High" as you say. He also produced long range forecasts for a period of time and would talk about the criteria for cold weather during the UK winter. He had masses of knowledge, but 2 basic points I can clearly remember him referring to were: 1) A cold cyclonic November being a positive input for a cold winter to follow 2) Sustained cold in the UK VERY unlikely with a well developed and stubborn Azores high. 

Well for me anyway, the GFS 00z op was a slightly better run overall than the 06z in terms of keeping the cold around for longer.

For me, there is little point in looking ahead more than 10 days at the moment (T+240), and even that may be too far ahead just now given how fluid things seem to be. Neil said earlier than it may not be until the final week of January when the effects of the SSW over the festive season may start to become more pronounced. What I am not seeing in what was predicted by someone just after Xmas- that the HP we have had recently would move SE into Europe.

Not much longer though - 36 - 48  hours or so should do it for the north  - with sleet/snow showers by Wednesday for Scotland and maybe far north of England/NI?

But looking at the extended range is exactly what we’re doing in looking for signs of a SSW response (HLB in Greenland or Scandy). It’s been there on and off on the GEFS (waning a bit this morning), is a strong signal on the EC anomaly charts (or has been) but the current GFS OP has been very reluctant. Troughing gets into Europe agreed but energy continues to ride over the omnipresent Az high and blocks the possibility of retrogression. 

We should start seeing OPs regularly put out an HLB signal by midweek for the period 24th onwards or some theoretical forecasts (including mine) will be skating on thin ice 😉

I realise this is only one chart from one OP run for 10 days ahead, but what appears to be hapenning just to the east of Greenland at 240hrs on the ECM 0z op looks potentially interesting IMO:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Its worth noting that the longer term CFS, JMA and the Beijing Climate Centre are going consistently for a cold February. 

It’s a snapshot I agree David but the concensus is EC handles upper layers better than GFS so the hint there of heights at 500hPa nudging down across Greenland offer a hope that the first signs of a Greenland block may just be appearing.