The key risk

I think you are right about why they continue to build emergency capacity

Wave 2 will doubtless come as we ease lockdown and the hope will be that we have the beds to cope as it unfolds

Scotland, Wales and NI are a combined 150 new deaths

To put it crudely it presumably depends on whether there is "bottlenecking" or not.

Great news.

The antibody kits work - there is good correlation with lab testing.

We will be putting this to good use to ensure our cancer patients are as safe as possible.

There are challenges but their validation is really encouraging.

— Professor Karol Sikora (@ProfKarolSikora) April 15, 2020

 Well down. That's caught a few people on the hop. 

They could easily massage them and spread them out edit: now released and surprisingly low.

Yes this is surprising if not welcome news. Obviously no death should be welcomed but I am glad we have seen such a significant drop.

Curve flattened?!

It does seem odd when Wales and Scotland have recorded their highest daily figures.

Maybe the peak is taking longer to reach Scotland and Wales?

Me too, that’s v good news if that trend continues....let’s hope that hospital admissions and ICU requirements continue to trend downwards

Breakdown of the 651 new deaths in England by date

• 113 on April 14th


• 277 on April 13th


• 103 on April 12th


• 151 between April 1st and April 11th


• 7 in March with one on March 23rd

Consider the sheer decency, humanity, and competence of Jacinda Ardern, and then ask yourself how we ended up with such bumbling, self-serving arsehats governing us. https://t.co/ZZewo9cxbO

— I Am Incorrigible FCA (@ImIncorrigible) April 15, 2020

Well, Cummings is back at work so you never know

But if we assume the numbers are genuine, perhaps we are really on the down slope and we might get a date for ending the lockdown at the meeting tomorrow

When you look at them broken down like this, I still don’t see how we can usefully analyse the daily trends.  It’s farcical, and yet media narratives and government policy are potentially set by it.  We need retrospective graphs of the dates the actual deaths occurred.

Cynic mode suggests tomorrow will be big to coincide with the review to emphasise to the plebs that it's not over and retain lockdown

Very much agree. We need to do it weekly to go by a weekly average

The impression you get from the news is that all these people died yesterday, which is obviously not the case

At least we don't live in America!

A Black doctor in Miami who has been testing the homeless for COVID-19 was detained outside his home while he was unloading his van.

Police say they thought he was illegally offloading trash. pic.twitter.com/iJXT6MDVNI

— AJ+ (@ajplus) April 13, 2020

That is what this is showing (top right graph, below the map) as the numbers don't relate to anything I've seen elsewhere. Note that the graph I mentioned is only for England and not for the rest of the UK.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Totally agree John. 

It can’t be that hard for PHE to do. I suspect we may have already supposed that daily 1000 figure