WX temps for week 1 look much as they have been, cold in N Europe (i.e. Scandinavia, less so in Scotland), cool for most of Europe (still including Spain this morning), mild in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. A big development in week 2 with some very warm weather from the Danube Basin up to Poland - but still cool in W Europe. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries including Britain in week 1, dry for Mediterranean and Black Sea; in week 2 the focus is on Portugal, S France, N Italy but with a large very dry area present to match the warmth above. Britain becoming a little drier.
GFS Op - As previously forecast, a broad trough developing from mid-Atlantic across Britain to Baltic; by Wed 3rd this has twin centres Atlantic and Baltic with Britain under a col but the Atlantic end begins to dominate and the Baltic to die away. By Sun 7th LP is 985mb S Ireland (SW-lies for England, NE-lies for Scotland) and HP is well established in E Europe. The LP slowly fills and moves away SE-wards leaving Britain under slack indeterminate pressure but by Sun 14th HP from the SW covers Britain and is linking to the continental HP which by this time has drifted N to Norway.
ECM - similar distribution of areas of HP/LP but generates deeper LP close to Britain; Wed 3rd LP 990mb Bristol Channel additional to the twin centres above, Sat 6th the Atlantic LP is close to W Ireland 970mb, Sun 7th 980mb Shetland in addition to that off SW Ireland.
FAX agrees with ECM Wed 3rd with a well defined LP 990mb N England, up till then showing showery troughs moving N-wards.
GEFS - in the S, temps from Wed 3rd on the mild side for a week before dropping back to norm with fairly good ens agreement throughout; rain in every run at some time or other in moderate amounts (but heavy in SW at first). Similar in Scotland and N England though not quite as mild, and less rain after the first week. Yesterday's forecast of a big dip in temp in the N has gone from all but half a dozen runs, though op & control (pretty well out on their own) have put in a different one around Wed 10th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl