Remove ads from site

Jiries
20 April 2024 08:44:08

Well, the Euro-cooling in full swing this morning. This below av. spell set for the foreseeable. 

Looks like we might only scrape a 15c max first week of May ..and that’s the south east!!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.
doctormog
20 April 2024 08:47:20

Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Is there any point in me saying that’s not how these things work? My guess would be, no.

Yes the output looks chilly but at least it’s not overly wet following on from the first half of spring (and indeed before then). 
Matty H
20 April 2024 08:50:13

Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



👍

absolutely stunning day today, albeit cool. As others have mentioned - absolutely no sign of anything particularly warm on the horizon 
Chunky Pea
20 April 2024 09:03:07

👍

absolutely stunning day today, albeit cool. As others have mentioned - absolutely no sign of anything particularly warm on the horizon 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Its going to feel warm in the much higher sun regardless of the air temp. The sun doesn't heat the air, but it does warm surfaces and your skin. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
fairweather
20 April 2024 09:06:59

Poor output for warm weather fans that's for sure. Had to put the heating on this morning first time in 6 weeks.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Ours not been off since last October at some point in the day and we only have the thermostat low at 20.5C.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
20 April 2024 09:08:04
I’m not sure what’s worse a total lack of understanding or giving it the thumbs up. 🤣 It does provide entertainment though so that’s something.

One good thing about this time point of the year is that even with cool temperatures things can feel pleasant enough in the sunshine and light winds. It’s just a pity that we have neither much of the time. 

I’m convinced that there has been a significant decrease in the prevalence of SWly winds in the last few years and this is modelled to continue. I wonder if there is a data set available that would show whether this is just my perception. Is it a shift in the climate norm or just a “blip”?

And yes the heating is still coming on here almost every day with the thermostat set at 17.5°C
fairweather
20 April 2024 09:08:32

Is there any point in me saying that’s not how these things work? My guess would be, no.

Yes the output looks chilly but at least it’s not overly wet following on from the first half of spring (and indeed before then). 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Cold and dry - worst Spring weather for gardeners.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
20 April 2024 09:10:47

Cold and dry - worst Spring weather for gardeners.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Yes, I have had a few Facebook “memories” over the last few weeks and the garden is notably behind previous years for many of the flowers and plants and that’s without the drier weather! I don’t think the next few weeks may be much better.
Ally Pally Snowman
20 April 2024 09:12:11

Ours not been off since last October at some point in the day and we only have the thermostat low at 20.5C.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



We are lucky that our house gets and stays warm easily.  But today is bleak here cloudy and chilly.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
20 April 2024 09:12:20
As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2024 09:27:09

Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I like your optimism but I don’t think the models have been told it’s Spring!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
20 April 2024 09:32:37

I like your optimism but I don’t think the models have been told it’s Spring!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 



😂

No, they just didn’t “listen”, but I’m sure they will soon come to understand how they are supposed to “behave” and “ignore” all that silly stuff like numerical data inputs. 
Gandalf The White
20 April 2024 11:12:24

As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I think the reality has always been that high pressure to our north or north-east is more common at this time of year and brings an easterly drift/wind off a chilly North Sea, making eastern counties cooler and cloudier whilst the western side sees lighter winds and more sunshine. As a cricketer and now umpire I have endured plenty of days like this during the early part of the cricket season.

Of course, warmer seas and more moisture will tend to increase the cloud amounts and the associated risk of drizzle or showers.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
20 April 2024 11:16:35

I like your optimism but I don’t think the models have been told it’s Spring!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Yes, a quick run through the latest output doesn’t inspire confidence in any decent warmer or settled weather does it?

As I sit here it’s the usual picture in this pattern: a beautiful, sunny start has given way to 100% overcast with just a little brightness.  It could pass for a winter’s day at the moment.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
20 April 2024 11:49:49
Yes, it's the wrong way round.  Clear at night, cloudy by day.f that was reversed it would be ok. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
20 April 2024 11:53:52
I used to look forward to HP on the charts. Not any more. It is always in the wrong place for that season, and more often than not these days seems to bring cloud and or a cold breeze for the S.E. At least with LP and Atlantic fronts there is a 50/50 chance it will bring the rain at night with the chance of some warm sunny periods by day.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Jiries
20 April 2024 12:13:50

I used to look forward to HP on the charts. Not any more. It is always in the wrong place for that season, and more often than not these days seems to bring cloud and or a cold breeze for the S.E. At least with LP and Atlantic fronts there is a 50/50 chance it will bring the rain at night with the chance of some warm sunny periods by day.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Agreed I use to be excited with HP before when I used to view charts but now no as you said wrong place and refusing to move over us and to the east. HP is a pest and not useable most times.  The best set up for prolonged hp is from Azores to Scandinavia that give more sunshine for most of us. 
fairweather
20 April 2024 12:24:02
9.5C here this afternoon. Although the outlook isn't promising for warm weather it does look as if there will be a gradual rise to average by the start of May. I'm assuming that is around 15C so will feel positively tropical by then if the sun should show itself from time to time!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
20 April 2024 12:39:05

I think the reality has always been that high pressure to our north or north-east is more common at this time of year and brings an easterly drift/wind off a chilly North Sea, making eastern counties cooler and cloudier whilst the western side sees lighter winds and more sunshine. As a cricketer and now umpire I have endured plenty of days like this during the early part of the cricket season.

Of course, warmer seas and more moisture will tend to increase the cloud amounts and the associated risk of drizzle or showers.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



........ and me, also doing groundsman duties in cold wet early May's. I really noticed the cold when fielding and do recall a game with snow falling. The season always started two weeks too soon and anything below 17C felt bitter after tea standing in the slips. As you say it is nothing new but I think in recent years we've been spoilt by some early season short lived "heatwaves"  (think Covid lockdowns flocking to the beach!)  and unusually high maxima.
(By the way - for some reason I picture as a dour Boycott style opener or line and length bowler as opposed to my more flamboyant  left handed batting 😄)


 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
20 April 2024 14:51:31

As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



HP in spring/early summer setting up towards the NW/N/NE and bringing a flow from an easterly quadrant is still the underdog, but I definitely feel like it's happening more often than it used to.

Of course, living in the west, it's a development I welcome! 😁

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2024 18:02:22

As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


High Pressure to the west and NW is practically an annual event in the spring.
Here on the east coast it is notorious for giving us at least a couple of weeks constantly below 10C with lovely sea fog thrown in at times, while the Lake District and NW Scotland get their only dry and sunny spell of the year with temperatures close to 20C
Saint Snow
20 April 2024 18:04:12

while the Lake District and NW Scotland get their only dry and sunny spell of the year with temperatures close to 20C

Originally Posted by: four 



Well that's garbage.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 April 2024 07:21:03
WX temp charts still stuck in a rut with milder weather advancing north to the east of Poland, and to a lesser extent into Spain in the west, but both Britain and continental Europe have temps well-below average which have lasted for a couple of weeks and are forecast to continue for the next two; 8C below in the Alps. Rain fairly general for Europe in week 1, excepting Spain, heaviest near the Alps; something drier working south from Scandinavia in week 2, just about reaching S England.

GFS Op - for the coming week, HP currently nearby moves out towards Iceland allowing LP in the Baltic to move closer and generate weak but cold NE-lies for much of Britain. At next weekend the Atlantic remembers its normal function and produces LP near Greenland which tracks quickly S-wards, deepening, to Fastnet 970mb Sat 27th. This swirls around Britain for a few days, filling, before moving further S to Italy  by Thu 2nd. There is then a slow rise of pressure over Britain but LP is never far away to the SW and later the S, so by Tue 7th the E-lies are back.

ECM - similar to GFS for the first week though next weekend's LP is not so deep (only 990mb) and is further to the SW. When it does move away, it moves back to the Atlantic and on Tue 30th pressure has risen enough over N Europe to start influencing Britain.

GEFS - rather cool (Scotland hangs on to something a little milder for the first couple of days), rising to norm Tue 30th with fair ens agreement to that point after which ens members spread out though mean stays near norm. Periods of not-too-heavy rain likely for the week beginning Fri 26th, though wetter in the SW, most but by no means all runs drier after that.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
21 April 2024 07:55:47

Agreed I use to be excited with HP before when I used to view charts but now no as you said wrong place and refusing to move over us and to the east. HP is a pest and not useable most times.  The best set up for prolonged hp is from Azores to Scandinavia that give more sunshine for most of us. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Great post and bang on the money.
Even though the pattern change may bring about settled conditions to end this month, ground temps are going to struggle: 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Good to see some mature and coherent chat restored today. 
doctormog
21 April 2024 08:17:48
Pretty much the same this morning, still a generally cool outlook but with the added bonus of some easterly garbage yet again. 

Not as wet as it has been but not particularly dry either.

Remove ads from site

Ads