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White Meadows
06 June 2024 05:56:47
Yep, no surprise that overall June-July-August temperatures are forecast to be warmer than the 1991-2020 long-term average. As highlighted already, extensive insulating cloud cover has kept cold nights at bay for months now. This masks the fact we’ve seriously been lacking daytime highs. This years max still only 25c earlier in May, which is pretty astonishing in comparison to the new pseudo ‘Mediterranean’ furnace we’re being led to believe. 

Meanwhile, an emerging picture this morning for a potential northerly influence after mid month with a return to wet conditions. 
doctormog
06 June 2024 06:01:56

Yep, no surprise that overall June-July-August temperatures are forecast to be warmer than the 1991-2020 long-term average. As highlighted already, extensive insulating cloud cover has kept cold nights at bay for months now. This masks the fact we’ve seriously been lacking daytime highs. This years max still only 25c earlier in May, which is pretty astonishing in comparison to the new pseudo ‘Mediterranean’ furnace we’re being led to believe. 

Meanwhile, an emerging picture this morning for a potential northerly influence after mid month with a return to wet conditions. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



A couple of points about May, the daytime maxima were also above average and the overall maximum was 27.5°C on the 12th in Surrey. It is on the cool side at the moment and for the coming days for many people but it is also just the very start of the summer.

I know it doesn’t work like this, but I would rather have cooler showery weather at the very beginning of summer if it meant things were warmer and more settled in the heart of the summer period.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Chunky Pea
06 June 2024 06:23:37

. The raw GFS has 15/16/16 here for today, tomorrow and Saturday, compared with 19/20/21 for the MetO.

I don't know whether it applies elsewhere in the UK, but for the past month or so the GFS has been absolutely atrocious... it's always underestimated maxima by a degree or two in summer, generally, but it's plumbing new depths at the moment. The other day was a good example: GFS had 18, MetO 22, it ended up as 22.3. A model that's consistently 3 or more degrees out really isn't very good.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I find that the global models always temper the extremities of temp either side. Icon, Harmonie, hi res UKMO etc a lot more accurate in this regard I think. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 June 2024 07:05:00
WX charts still having difficulty handling temps over the next two weeks with variations from day to day. For now, for week 1, an invasion of cool (Scotland cold?) weather from the northwest affecting all countries with Atlantic or Baltic coasts, or at least the parts nearer the coast. In week 2, warm weather moves north gradually on a broad front, as far as S England and Denmark; N Scotland still cool, and the E Baltic definitely less warm than shown yesterday. Rain in a long 'streak' in week 1 from N Spain to Alps to W Russia plus some in Scandinavia and N Scotland; in week 2 the 'streak' moves north to Channel and Baltic coasts, affecting S England, while Scotland and Scandinavia become drier.

GFS Op - not really consistent with the above. LP now near N Scotland circulating around the Norwegian Sea and North Sea until about Tue 11th before moving to Scandinavia with lingering N-lies. Then a modest rise of HP but with shallow troughs sliding SE-wards past Cornwall 995mb Fri 14th and 1015mb Tue 18th. HP then builds more strongly but soon retreats westwards and a general area of LP from Scandinavia to France brings back the N-lies from Fri 21st.

ECM - like GFS at first  but the LP Fri 14th runs towards N Ireland and sticks over the Irish Sea 1005mb Sun 16th

GEM - follows ECM in placing that LP over N Ireland

GEFS - temps remaining on the cool side to about Fri 14th then near norm through to Fri 21st, with quite good agreement from ens members for two weeks. Dry in the S until Tue 11th then frequent small amounts of rain; a more irregular pattern in the N with rain appearing more occasionally but quite heavy in some ens members (and becoming drier in the NE later)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
White Meadows
06 June 2024 09:35:02
Those enjoying this baking hot UKmediterranean weather better not look at ECM. Pretty nasty outlook especially for northern areas. 
ozone_aurora
06 June 2024 09:50:07

Those enjoying this baking hot UKmediterranean weather better not look at ECM. Pretty nasty outlook especially for northern areas. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Yes, ECM forecasts a good weather for watching football indoors, or if you are young, being in an exam room.
+2
Windy Willow
06 June 2024 14:13:47
No doubt that we will start to roast once the 20th June comes around, that's opening night for our show. It always seems to blister show week, no matter which week that ends up being! 😂 Last year the entire cast and crew had hand fans, and thankfully so. This years show isn't so forgiving on the hand fan front, unfortunately.
I'm also thankful that it is cool right now as we've been moving and packing boxes at home, in preparation to for the big shift up north. Just hoping it's not too wet over this weekend, when most of the furniture is going.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Jiries
06 June 2024 15:26:51

I find that the global models always temper the extremities of temp either side. Icon, Harmonie, hi res UKMO etc a lot more accurate in this regard I think. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



 Same on apple app temps which data crap model they get is seriously wrong most days by 3 to 5C lower than actual. They were showing correct 20C from this weekend to early next week to 24C to straight 15C which is not possible with warm Europe to Lapland that reached 26C so likely low 20s as normal for near mid June.   
+1
NCross
06 June 2024 18:57:34


Hi,

Last week watched the world weather on sky or bbc, one one of them said a south american country just had its coldest may on record. I dont know which  country
doctormog
06 June 2024 19:14:13

Hi,

Last week watched the world weather on sky or bbc, one one of them said a south american country just had its coldest may on record. I dont know which  country

Originally Posted by: NCross 



I think it was southern parts of Chile and maybe parts of Argentina rather than one specific country and very much in contrast to many other countries.

Meanwhile the outlook for the next week or so in the UK remains on the cool side.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
ozone_aurora
07 June 2024 06:53:50
Does anyone know a site that shows maps of currently warmer and cooler than normal areas?
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 June 2024 07:03:22

Does anyone know a site that shows maps of currently warmer and cooler than normal areas?

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



WX maps which I refer to http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4  shows this for Europe for week 1 i.e. today shows 7th-15th June, the third chart down has the anomalies. Hope that's not too far in the future for what you had in mind
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2024 07:03:50
Output about as bad as it gets for Summer fans. Next 2 weeks look cool and unsettled.  Temps struggling to hit 20c . We could go the whole of June without hitting 25c which is depressing.  No quick way to a heatwave what I can see . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
07 June 2024 07:14:19

WX maps which I refer to http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4  shows this for Europe for week 1 i.e. today shows 7th-15th June, the third chart down has the anomalies. Hope that's not too far in the future for what you had in mind

Originally Posted by: DEW 


It's been a long time since I've seen a cooler than average anomaly over so much of Europe on those maps.
At least the 2nd period is a little warmer.
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 June 2024 07:36:30
WX charts back to a somewhat more optimistic outlook for warmth today. Week 1 is still cool for all of W Europe (something a little better creeping into Cornwall) then in week 2 a pulse of warmth from the south affects western areas of Europe, especially Germany and Denmark with Britain getting a bit of the action on the western edge of this. The cool plunge is now focused on Finland and W Russia (yesterday it was for Europe as a whole). Rain quite widely across Europe in week 1, in week 2 concentrated on Britain, France and Holland while Scandinavia and the Baltic become very dry.

GFS - current LP near NE Scotland slowly moving to Scandinavia but lingering N-lies until Tue 11th. Brief ridge of HP before shallow troughs move into Britain from the Atlantic 1005mb Sat 15th E Anglia, 1000mb Mon 17th Ireland, the latter making a slow anti-clockwise circuit of Britain before retreating northwards Sat 22nd as the Azores ridge builds from the SW (Yesterday this trough was shown as slipping SE-wards past Cornwall but today the outlook is much more like what ECM then showed). Scandinavia gets the benefits of HP from Sat 15th onwards.

ECM - also has trough from the Atlantic but takes one bite at it, not two, starting Sat 15th 995mb S Ireland and then moving across England to the N Sea Mon 17th. Both GFS and ECM look to be cooler than suggested by WX.

GEM - the trough arrives earlier Thu 13th and does the perambulation of Britain as described above, but in this model it links to LP off the Norwegian coast for generally lower pressure over all of Britain, and no HP for Scandinavia.

GEFS - on the cool side to Sat 15th then near norm to Sat 22nd with good ensemble agreement; at the very end some members show much warmer. Rain in the S from Tue 11th in most runs, mostly small amounts but possibility of heavier Thu 13th and in the SW at any time; in the N rain starts a day or two earlier and is more intermittent though never far away, except that the far NE has some longer drier spells around the 15th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
David M Porter
07 June 2024 08:12:17

That is true to a certain extent, but the monthly summary maps show that the daily maxima were also above average for almost the entire UK (over 2.5⁰C above for much of Scotland). Not only that but these anomalies are compared with the milder 91-20 average and not the 61-90 dataset. I'm sure someone will no doubt say something that denies this just to be contrary but the data are readily available.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



May certainly had a number of warm/very warm days here throughout the month as it did across the country, but neither March or April produced any especially warm days for the time of year in my neck of the woods unlike a number of years in the past couple of decades. Temperatures during March for most of the time were only slightly above average at the most with predominantly unsettled weather, and April only warmed up to any real extent after mid-month when the weather improved somewhat after the dreadful first couple of weeks. In respect of March and April, it was almost certainly higher nightime temperatures which were instrumental in keeping CET figures up during those months along with the very warm daytime temperatures during May.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Retron
07 June 2024 08:33:03

In respect of March and April, it was almost certainly higher nightime temperatures which were instrumental in keeping CET figures up during those months along with the very warm daytime temperatures during May.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Not so. I've posted this before and will continue to do so whenever people say it wasn't a very warm spring, maxima wise!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

There were only two periods in spring where maxima weren't above, or much above average - the 2nd half of April, and the 2nd half of May. Note how often we were in the top 10% ever recorded... and compare that with the fact that no days entered the bottom 10%.
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2024 11:41:06
A better GFS 6z,  especially day 9+ , smalls acorns but better than nothing.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
07 June 2024 11:47:20

A better GFS 6z,  especially day 9+ , smalls acorns but better than nothing.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




I know it's about as reliable a Sunak election pledge, but latest CFS doesn't hold much promise for most of July... but does have a generally lovely August 🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2024 12:13:32

I know it's about as reliable a Sunak election pledge, but latest CFS doesn't hold much promise for most of July... but does have a generally lovely August 🤣

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



The worry is that this Omega block pattern can lock for 4 to 6 weeks. Bit like last July😭
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bledur
07 June 2024 12:40:38

Not so. I've posted this before and will continue to do so whenever people say it wasn't a very warm spring, maxima wise!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

There were only two periods in spring where maxima weren't above, or much above average - the 2nd half of April, and the 2nd half of May. Note how often we were in the top 10% ever recorded... and compare that with the fact that no days entered the bottom 10%.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 Yes but the second half of April was sufficiently cool/cold to pull the monthly average down to only marginally above average so in these warmer times a notable below average spell. The temperature here this year has only maxed at 24c which again in these warmer times is more unusual.
 The other point to make out regarding the May U.K. average is that Scotland especially the north was well above average, distorting the overall average.
 I will just add this to the mix
https://centrist.co.nz/foi-request-uncovers-major-inaccuracies-in-uk-met-office-temperature-data/ 
Jiries
07 June 2024 15:00:26

Yes but the second half of April was sufficiently cool/cold to pull the monthly average down to only marginally above average so in these warmer times a notable below average spell. The temperature here this year has only maxed at 24c which again in these warmer times is more unusual.
 The other point to make out regarding the May U.K. average is that Scotland especially the north was well above average, distorting the overall average.
 I will just add this to the mix
https://centrist.co.nz/foi-request-uncovers-major-inaccuracies-in-uk-met-office-temperature-data/ 

Originally Posted by: bledur 



Very interesting read about them.  We not stupid that we witnessed a very poor cold to average Spring so no questions, no buts or ifs asked.   This month will also start off well below average from the latest updates but where all the such cold air coming from when Arctic circle are warmer than here at 21C in Lapland?  Either they are undercook the temperatures by up to 5C errors.
+1
doctormog
07 June 2024 16:02:04

Yes but the second half of April was sufficiently cool/cold to pull the monthly average down to only marginally above average so in these warmer times a notable below average spell. The temperature here this year has only maxed at 24c which again in these warmer times is more unusual.
 The other point to make out regarding the May U.K. average is that Scotland especially the north was well above average, distorting the overall average.
 I will just add this to the mix
https://centrist.co.nz/foi-request-uncovers-major-inaccuracies-in-uk-met-office-temperature-data/ 

Originally Posted by: bledur 



All of the UK was above average in May, it’s just that the positive anomaly was larger in Scotland. Each home nation was individually above average too.

As for spring being cool. It wasn’t:

UserPostedImage

It was however dull and wet which probably skews perceptions a bit.

Back to the future and it still looks cool and showery for the coming days,
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
bledur
07 June 2024 19:18:05

All of the UK was above average in May, it’s just that the positive anomaly was larger in Scotland. Each home nation was individually above average too.

As for spring being cool. It wasn’t:

UserPostedImage

It was however dull and wet which probably skews perceptions a bit.

Back to the future and it still looks cool and showery for the coming days,

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 I dont think daytime temps were above average in my location over the whole month.
The lack of accuracy from weather stations is not something to dismiss .
doctormog
07 June 2024 19:27:13

I dont think daytime temps were above average in my location over the whole month.
The lack of accuracy from weather stations is not something to dismiss .

Originally Posted by: bledur 



Which WS are inaccurate and based on what evidence? I think your locality (or perhaps just to the west) is about the only one that wasn’t above average in the entire UK for daily maxima in May so that might have skewed your perception of the overall milder than average picture.

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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