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ozone_aurora
09 June 2024 10:08:36

I have noticed that the Suffolk and Essex coasts have their own micro climate in mid to late summer. Typically when the weather turns crap during the school holidays in the UK, these parts hang on to mainly dry, warm weather with plenty of sunshine. Probably the place to go for a sunny UK holiday. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


That's right, yes. For example, happened in August 2012; it was quite unsettled overall, but we had some very warm, dry, sunny spells. Manchester and the NW stayed predominantly cool, unsettled and wet.

Even in great summer of 1989, the warm, dry sunny conditions continued for much of August for SE UK. However, it turned cool and unsettled in the NW.
cultman1
09 June 2024 11:50:36
Going back to the model output despite rain and winds from the SW are we beginning to see a change in temperature and a potential change away from this extraordinary period of well below average temperatures? 
picturesareme
09 June 2024 15:33:10

Going back to the model output despite rain and winds from the SW are we beginning to see a change in temperature and a potential change away from this extraordinary period of well below average temperatures? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Every day for at least the past week has hit at least 19C down here with most into the low 20's so i wouldn't call it well below let alone 'extraordinary'. Could be a few notable chillier days in the coming week mind. 
Retron
09 June 2024 15:41:02

Every day for at least the past week has hit at least 19C down here with most into the low 20's so i wouldn't call it well below let alone 'extraordinary'. Could be a few notable chillier days in the coming week mind. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Indeed, if these recent CET maxima are "extraordinary", what on earth would you call the maxima we had in early May, which went without much comment in the media at large? Britain isn't in the Med, etc, etc.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

(I do appreciate for summer fans it'll be disappointing, but they've really been spoilt of late. Try being a winter fan - we set several warm CET daily records last winter. Chances of us setting even a single cold record in the summer? Zero, I'd say.

Also, remember the Euro monsoon, which traditionally affects the UK in early June. Looks to have been the case up north, but it's missed us down here so far... the models show cooler and wetter weather even here next week, but I don't have much faith!)
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
David M Porter
09 June 2024 19:19:40

Indeed, if these recent CET maxima are "extraordinary", what on earth would you call the maxima we had in early May, which went without much comment in the media at large? Britain isn't in the Med, etc, etc.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

(I do appreciate for summer fans it'll be disappointing, but they've really been spoilt of late. Try being a winter fan - we set several warm CET daily records last winter. Chances of us setting even a single cold record in the summer? Zero, I'd say.

Also, remember the Euro monsoon, which traditionally affects the UK in early June. Looks to have been the case up north, but it's missed us down here so far... the models show cooler and wetter weather even here next week, but I don't have much faith!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 



There hasn't been that much rain or many showers where I live, Darren. I suspect that NW corner has had most of what showers there have been.

It has certainly been cooler than average here as it has been virtually everywhere since last Sunday, but most of what rain has fallen has been in the form of showers rather than persistent rain. I have seen June start much worse than this in my time, and in the recent past too.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2024 19:55:16
Just looking back at last July and August the charts now are remarkably similar.  Which is a worry , that lasted 6 to 8 weeks . Could easily happen again. We need a pattern change. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
09 June 2024 20:38:09

Just looking back at last July and August the charts now are remarkably similar.  Which is a worry , that lasted 6 to 8 weeks . Could easily happen again. We need a pattern change. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



In the meantime, we have a classic "if only it were winter" synoptic scenario coming up in the next few days as the models continue to bring us absolutely no sign of anything even remotely resembling "summer" on the horizon, at least in the shorter term.🤢

Where are those northerlies in the winter though, when we're actually looking for them to deliver some cold weather here?😡
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2024 20:48:53

In the meantime, we have a classic "if only it were winter" synoptic scenario coming up in the next few days as the models continue to bring us absolutely no sign of summer on the horizon, at least in the shorter term.🤢

Where are those northerlies in the winter though, when we're actually looking for them to deliver some cold weather here?😡

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Thr UK has had no luck recently that's for sure.  I'm really depressed about this summer think it will be an absolute stinker 2007 esque . June looks a complete write off already i think July will go the same way as the HLB and omega block just aren't shifting.  My prediction is we won't hit 28c until August maybe not at all. One of the worst summer's of all time on the way.
Copious flooding as well.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
09 June 2024 22:15:29
There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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+2
Gandalf The White
09 June 2024 23:13:18

There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



It certainly doesn’t look great if your definition of summer is long periods of very warm or hot, sunny weather. The point here, I think, is how expectations have gradually shifted as a result of climate change. It’s perhaps noteworthy for this reason: I’m pretty sure we’re still around what was average in the 1961-1990 base period.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Lionel Hutz
09 June 2024 23:22:45

There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


https://news.sky.com/story/uk-had-its-warmest-may-and-spring-on-record-met-office-figures-show-
6https://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2024/0605/1453123-may-weather/  

Say what you like but we've we've has the  warmest May on record both sides of the Irish Sea. Pretty remarkable given that it's been miserable for alot of the time.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2024 06:54:14

There’s absolutely no merit in quoting averages as any sort of argument that this is a normal spring and summer the the last decade or so. 

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Helen Willetts on Countryfile would agree with you. Last night she attributed the high average temp for Spring to the mild nights that we've had, and in particular pointed out that large parts of the country had had no frost during this time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2024 07:26:25
WX this morning still showing cool for all areas bordering Channel / North Sea / Baltic in week 1, but in week 2 an advance of warmer weather on a broad front (though still far from hot) as far as N England / S Scandinavia though the real heat is reserved for W Russia. Rain quite widespread for Europe in both weeks; in week 1 concentrated on Ireland and in week 2 S Germany. Dry for Mediterranean coasts.

GFS Op - consistent with the output from the last few days. Current LP moving to Scandinavia trailing N-lies behind it, HP one day only on Wed, then trough from the NW reaching Ireland 990mb Sun 16th and staying to Wed 19th. Some rather indeterminate weather follows, eventually resolving to show Britain in a col Sun 23rd between LPs on the Atlantic and over Denmark. This persists but with HP approaching S England.

ECM - as for GFS until Tue 18th when the LP suddenly moves E-wards to Luxembourg 1000mb Thu 20th with some quite warm air from E Europe circulating around it this reaching Britain.

GEM - closer to ECM; the trough arrives on the 16th but spreads out across Britain before drifting slowly SE Thu 20th

GEFS - cool now, back to norm around Sun 16th (earlier in N , later in S), staying there with good ens agreement though a few members are warmer esp in N after Sun 23rd. Rain in most runs in modest amounts; no real pattern but indication of drier later. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Rob K
10 June 2024 08:52:48

It certainly doesn’t look great if your definition of summer is long periods of very warm or hot, sunny weather. The point here, I think, is how expectations have gradually shifted as a result of climate change. It’s perhaps noteworthy for this reason: I’m pretty sure we’re still around what was average in the 1961-1990 base period.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes the constant moaning on social media about how cold it is, people thinking single figures overnight are some kind of extreme etc etc - it all shows how much the UK climate has changed.

I do think though that all the talk about "nothing decent until August/September" is rather premature on June 10. 

If you want a bit of straw-clutching optimism look at the CFS 9-month run, plenty of heat there for early July. 😀
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
10 June 2024 09:02:43

Yes the constant moaning on social media about how cold it is, people thinking single figures overnight are some kind of extreme etc etc - it all shows how much the UK climate has changed.

I do think though that all the talk about "nothing decent until August/September" is rather premature on June 10. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


As I've said, since about the year 2000 there has been an assumption online than the UK has a much warmer climate than it really does - it was around then that the forecasts on the Beeb started getting all emotional, too, with presenters saying 8C in January would feel "bitterly cold", for example, rather than reporting it as a mild day but feeling cold in the wind, as would have been the case before.

Fast forward 24 years and I genuinely think people assume we have a Med climate! Even down here the mid-June mean min (91-20) is 10.8, but it's been damned hard to get into single figures at all in recent years - it's nice to have a reminder of what UK weather used to be like.

And you're spot on about writing off the summer on June 10th... writing off winter on December 10th would be just as silly, albeit in recent decades a winter writeoff is much more likely to happen than a cold summer. The gradual but relentless shifting right of the temperature bell-curve is a dreadful thing if you want to see snow.

It won't be long before the 850s get back to normal, but until then I'm going to enjoy the novelty of a spell that's average or even - perhaps - a bit below.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
David M Porter
10 June 2024 09:02:51

Helen Willetts on Countryfile would agree with you. Last night she attributed the high average temp for Spring to the mild nights that we've had, and in particular pointed out that large parts of the country had had no frost during this time.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



In my neck of the woods, May was the only month of the spring that produced any notable daytime warmth as far as I recall. March started not badly for weather with some reasonably springlike days but then went downhill from the second week onwards, with fairly typical temperatures for that time of year. The first fortnight of April was awful here and from what I recall reading on this forum at the time, it was little if any better elsewhere in the UK. Added to that, temperatures here on most days during that period seemed to be average at best or below, rather than above. April did warm up a bit after the weather improved during mid-month, but there was no notable warmth here unlike what we have had at times in numerous recent Aprils.

I agree with Helen Willetts that aside from the high temperatures of last month, it was must have been mainly the lack of cold nights and frost throughout the spring that was mostly behind the overall warmth of the season.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ozone_aurora
10 June 2024 09:21:27
I think the mild nights are due to frequent cloudy conditions. I certainly haven't done much astrophotography at all for ages. 
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2024 09:32:57

I think the mild nights are due to frequent cloudy conditions. I certainly haven't done much astrophotography at all for ages. 

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



It really was a remarkable run of frost free nights I'd hazard a guess unprecedented.  We had maybe one or 2 frosts for all of February,  March and April here. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2024 12:14:36
Glimmers again from the models of warmer/settled weather day 10+. We've been here before and it came to nothing. So v early days. Lots of crap to get through first.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Jiries
10 June 2024 12:48:04

Glimmers again from the models of warmer/settled weather day 10+. We've been here before and it came to nothing. So v early days. Lots of crap to get through first.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Models had been useless and very poor as I stand and a lot worst performance than before and never allow us any seasonal weather so I partly blame at them for this.   Very sad as we are nearing the longest day and all those potential useable long daylight had been vastly wasted.  Could had be a record highest June temps for UK at least 37-38C as other countries already getting their record broken.
+2
cultman1
10 June 2024 13:09:16
I still see no sign of anything remotely resembling above average  temperatures in the medium term especially if the Met Office is anything to go by. From this weekend for the south at least rain and heavy showers are forecast and a sort of recovery to around just below normal temperatures for the London area
Jiries
10 June 2024 13:40:54

I still see no sign of anything remotely resembling above average  temperatures in the medium term especially if the Met Office is anything to go by. From this weekend for the south at least rain and heavy showers are forecast and a sort of recovery to around just below normal temperatures for the London area

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Mark my word they will claim June 2024 the warmest on record 🙄 despite latest ensembles I saw now is well below average to just tad below to average no single day above. Rain spikes record daily no dry days on the graph.  
+2
Retron
10 June 2024 13:58:30

Mark my word they will claim June 2024 the warmest on record 🙄 despite latest ensembles I saw now is well below average to just tad below to average no single day above. Rain spikes record daily no dry days on the graph.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


It is the warmest on record so far, both in the northern hemisphere and the globe as a whole.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world 
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=nh 

We've just been incredibly fortunate (or unlucky if you're a heat-hound) to end up in one of the colder than average areas!

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/maps/gfs_world-wt_t2anom_d1.png 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
10 June 2024 16:47:16
The GFS 12z takes us to the Promised Land . Amen 🙏 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
10 June 2024 17:17:32

It certainly doesn’t look great if your definition of summer is long periods of very warm or hot, sunny weather. The point here, I think, is how expectations have gradually shifted as a result of climate change. It’s perhaps noteworthy for this reason: I’m pretty sure we’re still around what was average in the 1961-1990 base period.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Except I didn’t say that
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1

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