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Chunky Pea
23 June 2024 18:44:59

Looks like an excellent chance of 30 on both Wednesday and Thursday now... unfortunately for me, the latter is more likely here, according to the new MetO output!

It has 29C now as the high for Thursday (compared to 28 for Heathrow), but Heathrow still has 29C for Wednesday... when it's "just" 25C here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-06-23&forecastChoice=weather 

It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



The day will come (likely when we are all rotting in the grave) when future members of this forum will be talking of our present summers the way we talk now of winters in the 80s. In that it just so common now to reach temps and dewpoints that would only occur once or twice in late 20th century summers. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Rob K
23 June 2024 19:12:56
GFS is still being the party pooper which much cooler and less settled conditions than the other main models. 12Z op run was again at the lower end of the ensembles from much of the time.

ARPEGE is giving a 31C right over my location on Wednesday.

I'm sure I saw a 32C for London on the UKV earlier but that has disappeared now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
23 June 2024 19:34:09



It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



But the flip side is un winter its easier to get 7C below average than 7C above.
ozone_aurora
23 June 2024 19:55:13

GFS is still being the party pooper which much cooler and less settled conditions than the other main models. 12Z op run was again at the lower end of the ensembles from much of the time.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, indeed. I have a feeling it will set in giving a mostly unsettled July.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2024 07:20:01
WX average temps still not loading; the rest of the site looks OK.

GFS Op - current HP chased away by deeper-than-previous LP 985mb Hebrides Thu 27th, returning briefly from the SW Sun 30th until another LP from Iceland 990mb Cairngorm Wed 3rd, this one with a trough reaching S Britain. HP continues to hover out to the SW with a general W-ly flow until Wed 10th when another LP from the NW reaches Malin 1000mb. 

In summary, HP to the SW of Britain and over S Russia, with a sequence of LPs from Iceland dipping across N Britain on their way to Norway.

ECM - goes into W-ly zonal flow pattern once the first LP is out of the way. The LP on Wed 3rd does not appear and at that date pressure is fairly high over Britain, centred to the SW with a light NW-ly flow. The best of the three major models.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM with the LP on Wed 3rd present but further N, heading for Orkney and not really affecting England.

GEFS - warm to Thu 27th, mean of ens members dropping back to norm (cool for a few days in the N) and staying there to Wed 10th but on any given day there will be a run or two 5C above or below the mean. Rain at any time, very little in the SW, rather more but not that much in the N.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
ozone_aurora
24 June 2024 08:00:52
Thanks Dew, as always.

A very cool, wet, stormy showery election day for most, according to GFS. 😧 
Retron
24 June 2024 08:13:57

Thanks Dew, as always.

A very cool, wet, stormy showery election day for most, according to GFS. 😧 

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Goodness knows why anyone would pay attention to a forecast 10 days out!

That's the same GFS, mind you, which shows an absolute drought setting in... and if that's the case, rainfall will be very much welcome!

(e.g. for my location, last measurable rainfall on the 16th June - 8 days ago)

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/leysdown 
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Taylor1740
24 June 2024 10:10:27

Goodness knows why anyone would pay attention to a forecast 10 days out!

That's the same GFS, mind you, which shows an absolute drought setting in... and if that's the case, rainfall will be very much welcome!

(e.g. for my location, last measurable rainfall on the 16th June - 8 days ago)

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/leysdown 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I don't know about that, I think 10 days is not that long away to completely write off what the models are showing particularly when the output has been consistent and supported by the ensembles. Otherwise there would be no point in any longer range forecast beyond about 5 - 7 days.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Retron
24 June 2024 10:37:12

I don't know about that, I think 10 days is not that long away to completely write off what the models are showing particularly when the output has been consistent and supported by the ensembles. Otherwise there would be no point in any longer range forecast beyond about 5 - 7 days.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


There isn't much point in using op runs beyond 6 or 7 days, frankly, but as they're available of course we'll all pore over them.

Over the past 25+ years I've found it a good idea to give very little weight to any given day 10 op chart, and I'm leery even when it comes to ensembles: they're more useful, but we know how the entire suite is prone to flip-flop should something significant change in the short term (e.g. if a low moving south introduces a spell of easterlies in winter, but then the low ends up deepening more than first thought and moving further north, stopping the easterlies from setting in).

And just look at the GEFS:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=3 

That's this morning's output, and shows the op run (perhaps what ozone aurora was basing his gloom on) to be a generally "out of it" cold and wet run. The suite as a whole clusters around the long-term average - 22 or 23 at this time of year for London - and the majority show either dry conditions or just the odd shower.

Meanwhile the short ECM ensembles don't even go out as far as daytime on the 4th.. that'll appear on tonight's run.
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2024 15:25:40
GFS 06z not quite as gloomy as the 0z. The LP on Thu 27th is still as previously predicted, but the one following up on Wed 3rd is shallower and further north. Although it then sits over Norway with light N-lies for polling day, it looks as if the weather on that day is most likely to be no worse than cool with occasional showers. (but that regime persists to Mon 8th). The final LP on the 0z, shown there for Wed 10th, has been replaced by HP.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
24 June 2024 15:44:37
The first 30 of the year showing on my local MetO raw forecast for Thursday. GFS has 24 instead... I suspect MetO will be closer to the mark!

It looks like being one of those typical "last gasp" heatwaves, whereby this little corner ends up the warmest in the UK. MetO has 29s for Heathrow tomorrow and Wednesday, but "only" 27 for Thursday.

NB, 30 would be 8 degrees above average, the June equivalent of an ice day in winter. And we haven't had one of those for years...
Leysdown, north Kent
Matty H
24 June 2024 19:17:03

The first 30 of the year showing on my local MetO raw forecast for Thursday. GFS has 24 instead... I suspect MetO will be closer to the mark!

It looks like being one of those typical "last gasp" heatwaves, whereby this little corner ends up the warmest in the UK. MetO has 29s for Heathrow tomorrow and Wednesday, but "only" 27 for Thursday.

NB, 30 would be 8 degrees above average, the June equivalent of an ice day in winter. And we haven't had one of those for years...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Moomin, get off Darren’s account with your last gasp summer is over antics
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
24 June 2024 19:30:29
Nice ECM 12z tonight HP build back in strongly for a time.  Quite warm too.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
24 June 2024 20:09:48

Nice ECM 12z tonight HP build back in strongly for a time.  Quite warm too.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



As long no one created a front to throw at the HP zone like this phantom warm cloudy spell thanks to the front being thrown inside the HP and clouds spread like cancerous.  
moomin75
24 June 2024 20:50:13

Moomin, get off Darren’s account with your last gasp summer is over antics

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


🤣🤣
I'm a changed man Matty..promise  🤣
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+5
Tom Oxon
24 June 2024 23:03:44

Nice ECM 12z tonight HP build back in strongly for a time.  Quite warm too.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Good upgrade for the southern UK on that op tonight 
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Retron
25 June 2024 04:09:54

Moomin, get off Darren’s account with your last gasp summer is over antics

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


You misunderstood that one! 😉

The "last gasp" bit refers to this heatwave... it's often the case when fresher weather moves in from the west that we see a last-minute surge in temperatures in this corner of England, as the heat gets shoved eastwards and we lose our cooling sea breezes.

While I wish it was summer as a whole's "last gasp", sadly it won't be - we're in for more of this over the next couple of months. Remember folks, down here in Kent, while snow (or even -5C) isn't guaranteed every winter, or even most winters these days, a spell of warmth including 30C+ is a dead cert every summer. And more often than not, more than once!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2024 04:44:38
Poor set of 0z this morning 
Model consistency has been really crap recently. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2024 04:55:04
ICON keeps the faith but GFS and GEM are off the scale bad. HLB over Greenland is back . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 June 2024 06:56:39
GFS Op - as previously forecast, LP moving in Thu 27th 990mb Hebrides but minimal effect on S England, leaving a spell of zonal weather as it moves away; with HP to the SW this gives a mainly NW-ly flow to Wed 3rd. Then LP from Iceland 985mb grazes N Scotland en route to Norway leaving shallow area of low pressure in the N Sea with weak but cool N-lies for all of Britain. A brief ridge of HP Tue 9th gives way to further LP 990mb off W Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS but LP Thu 4th is closer 995mb Aberdeen (yesterday this was shown further N)

GEM - more emphasis on LP; the HP responsible for the zonal flow in GFS is further SW in this model and weather is less settled everywhere, not just the N. In particular there is a twin centre LP on election day 990mb Cornwall and 995mb N Ireland.

GFS - cooling down later this week and mean temp then staying near norm (slightly below in N; op and control amongst the coolest everywhere) with variation between ens members becoming steadily more significant from Wed 3rd. Very little rain in S (one or two runs with large amounts later on), small amounts quite frequently in N

A lot of LP around with rather cool weather in the models, which however is not reflected in GEFS
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2024 07:17:12
Looks like no avoiding a poor start to July. Ensembles look mixed at best. Atm no sign of Summer after this spell ends.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
25 June 2024 07:54:59

Looks like no avoiding a poor start to July. Ensembles look mixed at best. Atm no sign of Summer after this spell ends.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not much difference after this phantom cloudy fest spell ends, might end up better amount of sunny days in early July when I get back.  Leaving today and still lot of infill clouds formed so early this morning so will see blue skies in the air.  
picturesareme
25 June 2024 11:34:37

Looks like no avoiding a poor start to July. Ensembles look mixed at best. Atm no sign of Summer after this spell ends.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Between now and Monday 1st the coolest day forcasted on the met for here is 21C and that's this Friday... Every other day is warmer! Each looks also to be dry.
 
Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2024 12:02:27

Between now and Monday 1st the coolest day forcasted on the met for here is 21C and that's this Friday... Every other day is warmer! Each looks also to be dry.
 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Tbf the South and EA might be OK upto the 1st. 
First week of July look less good but ensembles are not as bad as the Ops atm. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
25 June 2024 12:23:40

Tbf the South and EA might be OK upto the 1st. 
First week of July look less good but ensembles are not as bad as the Ops atm. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




After looking at the GFS especially, the Met Office web forecast for MBY surprised me. Mostly dry (chance of PPN maxing out at 15%) and temps 17-19c out to the 1st. 

Not great.... but great when compared to what I was expecting from the last few GFS runs

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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