theweatheroutlook

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Chunky Pea
21 April 2024 08:28:18

Well that's garbage.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



The only way we can get solid clear blue sky weather like this is from a high located somewhere east. Which is rare enough but can last weeks at a time when it does. Early April to early June most likely period for that to happen. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
21 April 2024 08:49:18

...

I’m convinced that there has been a significant decrease in the prevalence of SWly winds in the last few years and this is modelled to continue. I wonder if there is a data set available that would show whether this is just my perception. Is it a shift in the climate norm or just a “blip”?

...

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I agree with that perception. I'd be interested to see if it is confirmed by data on the subject.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
+1
picturesareme
21 April 2024 11:56:59
HP to the NE, N, NW at this time of year normally brings warm soring days down here so im not that fussed. 

 
Ally Pally Snowman
21 April 2024 13:08:53
Ecm ensembles at least want to warm it up a bit.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
22 April 2024 06:02:51
Cold and cloudy sums it up for this week. Showery in places. At least the winds will ease for the majority. The recent northerly has made it feel like early February . 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 April 2024 07:11:01
WX temp charts show some relief this morning, but not until week 2. Week 1 still has the cool area covering Europe with temperatures universally below norm but warmth then spreads north from the Mediterranean with a jump of 4 to 6C in many parts of France and Germany, and even more in the Balkans. England is also milder but Scotland less improved. Rain distributed widely across Europe in both weeks with no one area dramatically wet - for Britain the emphasis switches from the SW in week 1 to the NW in week 2.

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday's chart for the coming week. The current HP soon moves to Iceland with N/NE-ly winds affecting mainly the E coast of Britain before LP from the N Atlantic develops and runs swiftly SE to Biscay 990mb Sat 27th (not as deep or as close as yesterday). That LP then drifts N to Iceland, filling, and by Wed 1st a rise of pressure in W France brings in mild SW-ly veering W-ly winds. After a brief interruption on Sun 5th while a shallow LP slips past Cornwall, HP is back from the Azores. 

ECM - differs from GFS after Tue 30th with another LP running SE to Cornwall followed by a general fall of pressure over France and on Thu 2nd the E-lies are back, but the source of air is SE Europe, not the Arctic

GEFS - current cool spell finishing sooner than shown yesterday, mean and ens members back to norm by Sat 27th, and mean staying there through to  Tue 7th well supported by ens members. From the 27th, small but noticeable amounts of rain in many but not all runs in the SE, rather more in N &W, from the 27th, but less than shown yesterday, very little before 27th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ulric
22 April 2024 11:23:41


I’m convinced that there has been a significant decrease in the prevalence of SWly winds in the last few years and this is modelled to continue. I wonder if there is a data set available that would show whether this is just my perception. Is it a shift in the climate norm or just a “blip”?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



I recently pulled the weather records for 1960-2023 from OpenMeteo for my location. I've loaded them up into an SQL Server so I should be able to do some sort of analysis on it.
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
+3
LeedsLad123
22 April 2024 16:52:35

I think the reality has always been that high pressure to our north or north-east is more common at this time of year and brings an easterly drift/wind off a chilly North Sea, making eastern counties cooler and cloudier whilst the western side sees lighter winds and more sunshine. As a cricketer and now umpire I have endured plenty of days like this during the early part of the cricket season.

Of course, warmer seas and more moisture will tend to increase the cloud amounts and the associated risk of drizzle or showers.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes, it's nothing unusual for the time of year. Looking at rainfall and sunshine patterns in say western Scotland, you can clearly see how April-June is the sunniest and driest part of the year there, with rainfall picking up notably from July onward as the Atlantic awakens from its spring slumber. Eastern parts of the UK basically get their own version of California's May Grey/June Gloom, with dull chilly mornings often giving way to sunnier, warmer afternoons. It's the reason why I don't really rate June as a summer month here compared to July or August - the frequency of dull, chilly easterlies is simply too high, whereas in August it's unusual to have North Sea gloom because the sea temperatures are higher by then.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
22 April 2024 17:03:45

Yes, it's nothing unusual for the time of year. Looking at rainfall and sunshine patterns in say western Scotland, you can clearly see how April-June is the sunniest and driest part of the year there, with rainfall picking up notably from July onward as the Atlantic awakens from its spring slumber. Eastern parts of the UK basically get their own version of California's May Grey/June Gloom, with dull chilly mornings often giving way to sunnier, warmer afternoons. It's the reason why I don't really rate June as a summer month here compared to July or August - the frequency of dull, chilly easterlies is simply too high, whereas in August it's unusual to have North Sea gloom because the sea temperatures are higher.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 



The thing is if it was “usual” our rainfall wouldn’t be nearly double the average and the sunshine totals half the average (here). I will be pleased to see Ulric’s data if that is possible but the spring has been notably cloudier and wetter than average so far and I suspect the prevalence of easterly weather or at least non-SWly weather plays its part in that. The temperatures have been around the long term average here but with a notable lack of cool clear nights. 

I would happily settle for the “usual” conditions for this time of the year as that is often very pleasant here. On a more positive note there are a few signs of a more anticylonic picture in FI in some of the latest runs. 

(Naturally all the usual caveats if feeling nice in the sunshine at this time of year apply).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
LeedsLad123
22 April 2024 17:10:36

The thing is if it was “usual” our rainfall wouldn’t be nearly double the average and the sunshine totals half the average (here). I will be pleased to see Ulric’s data if that is possible but the spring has been notably cloudier and wetter than average so far and I suspect the prevalence of easterly weather or at least non-SWly weather plays its part in that. The temperatures have been around the long term average here but with a notable lack of cool clear nights. 

I would happily settle for the “usual” conditions for this time of the year as that is often very pleasant here. On a more positive note there are a few signs of a more anticylonic picture in FI in some of the latest runs. 

(Naturally all the usual caveats if feeling nice in the sunshine at this time of year apply).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I'm not saying this spring in particular has been normal - it's clearly been much wetter and duller than average almost everywhere. I'm just saying that the pattern of west = sunnier and east = cloudier is common at this time of year, we see it pretty much every year at some point between March and June. Last May/June is a great example - the first 10 days of June 2023 were pretty chilly and cloudy here, it wasn't until the winds switched to a more S/SE direction that we got hotter, sunnier conditions.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
doctormog
22 April 2024 17:20:09

I'm not saying this spring in particular has been normal - it's clearly been much wetter and duller than average almost everywhere. I'm just saying that the pattern of west = sunnier and east = cloudier is common at this time of year, we see it pretty much every year at some point between March and June. Last May/June is a great example - the first 10 days of June 2023 were pretty chilly and cloudy here, it wasn't until the winds switched to a more S/SE direction that we got hotter, sunnier conditions.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 



Yes the more recent few days have been quite typical for the time of year or at least later in spring. It’s the preceding. 6 to 8 weeks that it follows that is the problem. West being “best” at this time of the year, or May in particular in not unusual, it’s just that the lack of dryness and brightness elsewhere doesn’t help. If I was ever to book a holiday in the NW it would be in May as that seems to be the time it gets the best weather. Sadly there is still an easterly or northerly component to much of the “reliable” outlook so for some parts the poor run of weather continues.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 April 2024 18:21:21
According to the longest running set of weather records in the world - the Central England Temperature - the maximum temperature has been 2.5C above the average. Our overnight or minimum temperature has been even more anomalous at 3.6C above the average during the first half of April. We perhaps have not noticed the lack of cold and frosty nights compared to how it has felt at times during the day.-

Simon King in https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cp4g7ex1zpeo 

It looks as if all the cloud which has made daytime miserable on the east coast, and looks likely to continue this week, has had the 'silver lining' of preventing serious frosts; and that has pushed the overall average up while being unobserved at night by the man in the street.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
22 April 2024 20:05:05
Yuk.

All models now show the high retrogressing into the mid-Atlantic, which allows a low to sink over the west of the UK through Fri/Sat/Sun.

From a promising set-up (for the western half of the UK at least), to 'garbage'... the weather gods always seem to find a way to bring dross.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
23 April 2024 06:00:17
Spring warmth remains an illusion this morning in the far reachings of FI. If it wasn’t for this pseudo-above average CET skewed by a lack of frosts then one might laugh in the face of the climate change doom mongerers. 
Chunky Pea
23 April 2024 06:52:35
Anticyclonic easteries, in my opinion, are becoming less frequent, but longer lasting.  Yes, I know I live in a different location but we share in the same broader weather patterns that affect the UK. 

North or east located anticyclonic spells are, as Leeds lad says, more frequent at this time of year than at any other. The rainfall and SLP stats are testament to that. This is also the period of the year when ocean temps are relatively cool. Which makes one ask, were the cooler waters of winters past more conducive in allowing higher level blocking to form? 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 April 2024 07:26:43
WX offers some optimism but not until week2 (Jam tomorrow but never jam today?) Week 1 as for so long has cold air flooding W Europe and warmth pushing N past the Black Sea plus a trace of warmth in S Spain. In week 2, there is quite a turnaround with a transfer of warmth from Ukraine into N continental Europe, S Spain getting hot, and even Britain somewhat milder. Rain distributed across Europe in week 1, in week 2 for the Atlantic, Alps and W Mediterranean, and Turkey and correspondingly a dry, in places very dry, area developing from Biscay to N Sea to Baltic.

GFS Op - HP currently to the W of Britain moving ever W-wards and allowing LP to approach the N Sea with N-ly winds continuing to run down the east coast and even strengthen Wed 24th. Then an Atlantic LP runs SE-wards to Biscay 995mb Fri 26th drawing in slack but cold air across Britain. The LP centre then does a tour of Britain (via England, Scotland and Ireland in that order) finally clearing to France Thu 2nd. Although this brings back E-lies, they are from a milder source than at present, and the final frame Thu 9th shows HP building in from the SW.

ECM - rather like GFS, but the LP deepens significantly while touring Britain

GEFS - temps returning to norm around Sat 27th and mean staying there throughout, with variation in ens members setting i from around Thu 2nd. Small but frequent amounts of rain from the 27th in the S, rather more from that date in the N esp NW, but perhaps a little drier in the 2nd week of May. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Brian Gaze
23 April 2024 07:58:19
Please stay on topic. I've had to move a number of posts this morning. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ulric
23 April 2024 11:33:47

I recently pulled the weather records for 1960-2023 from OpenMeteo for my location. I've loaded them up into an SQL Server so I should be able to do some sort of analysis on it.

Originally Posted by: Ulric 



Count of hours in the year with an average bearing between 191 and 259.
WDay    CountSWBearing
1960    2956
1961    3548
1962    2811
1963    2930
1964    2862
1965    2948
1966    3046
1967    3465
1968    2521
1969    2324
1970    2680
1971    2767
1972    2662
1973    2692
1974    2912
1975    2773
1976    2232
1977    2905
1978    2678
1979    3269
1980    3011
1981    3105
1982    3159
1983    2891
1984    2660
1985    3194
1986    3118
1987    2580
1988    3088
1989    3202
1990    3526
1991    2798
1992    3240
1993    2745
1994    3571
1995    2609
1996    2396
1997    2884
1998    3356
1999    3393
2000    3599
2001    2620
2002    2971
2003    2721
2004    2984
2005    2838
2006    3050
2007    2864
2008    3530
2009    3087
2010    2180
2011    3488
2012    3274
2013    2814
2014    3177
2015    3533
2016    3103
2017    3186
2018    2663
2019    3113
2020    3369
2021    2842
2022    2996
2023    3314
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
+5
Ulric
23 April 2024 11:51:50
You could argue that prevalence of south westerlies has been increasing for Hertfordshire.

UserPostedImage
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
23 April 2024 12:15:26

Spring warmth remains an illusion this morning in the far reachings of FI. If it wasn’t for this pseudo-above average CET skewed by a lack of frosts then one might laugh in the face of the climate change doom mongerers. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Weather is not climate.  But then you know this; or should.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
doctormog
23 April 2024 13:01:49

You could argue that prevalence of south westerlies has been increasing for Hertfordshire.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Ulric 



Thanks very much for putting that together, it's really appreciated. 👍 

Maybe it's different up here or maybe it's just my perception!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
23 April 2024 13:03:05
Abysmal output continues. Each of GFS, ECM and GEM are unsettled throughout, with low pressure being over/close to the UK throughout on each.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hungry Tiger
23 April 2024 13:21:29

Abysmal output continues. Each of GFS, ECM and GEM are unsettled throughout, with low pressure being over/close to the UK throughout on each.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I don't mean to go OT - but I have to say this is starting to have a 2008 or 2012 look about it.

☹
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
Retron
23 April 2024 13:37:39

Thanks very much for putting that together, it's really appreciated. 👍 

Maybe it's different up here or maybe it's just my perception!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I suspect it's a bit of both - the jet has been further south than usual for quite a bit of time this past 6 months, meaning lows further south (=rain in the south, but still with SW'lies in the far south) and more easterlies for you folks to the north of the lows.

FWIW that doesn't look like changing much in the medium term either, with the jet remaining further south than you'd expect in our neck of the woods.
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Chunky Pea
23 April 2024 13:45:24

I suspect it's a bit of both - the jet has been further south than usual for quite a bit of time this past 6 months, meaning lows further south (=rain in the south, but still with SW'lies in the far south) and more easterlies for you folks to the north of the lows.

FWIW that doesn't look like changing much in the medium term either, with the jet remaining further south than you'd expect in our neck of the woods.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Can confirm this somewhat. Many of the winter lows passed directly over my head, which help quell storm potential and leaving us stuck in a sort of dank, grey dondrum for much of the time. Big storms that used to affect this part of the world depend tightly wound lows passing between here and Iceland, but that never really happens anymore. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

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