WX temp charts showing the area in the far north affected by the coldest weather still shrinking, but gradually, and Europe becoming milder, but also gradually - below LTA in west, above in east. Any real warmth still stuck in the Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France & Iberia (esp heavy in Portugal), in week 2 for W Britain, France and Norway, some around fringes of Med (not clearing Britain as much as shown yesterday). Very dry area developing around the Black Sea.
GFS Op - current LP in N Sea moving E-ward to Finland, losing identity, and replaced by new low from Greenland reaching S Ireland 985mb Tue 26th sticking there and deepening 960mb Thu 28th, lots of polar maritime in its circulation so expect April showers a week early. This LP stays in place, filling, until Mon 1st when it revives and moves to Biscay 970mb. HP then moves up from the SW to be centred over Holland Thu 4th, with a period of mild but strong SW-lies for Britain though stormy in far NW as deep LPs brush past e.g. 970mb Rockall Sat 6th.
ECM - similar to GFS though LP Mon 1st is more extensive with some quite brisk E-lies for Britain; and no sign of the HP developing in final chart (Wed 3rd)
GEFS - temps soon recovering to norm and staying close to that, sometimes a little above (Mon 1st), sometimes below with good ens agreement to Wed 3rd when wide divergence appears - op & control very mild but a few runs equally colder. Rain peaking Wed 27th - Sat 30th in S, (25th - 29th in N), then another period Mon 1st - Thu 4th (but not even briefly dry in the W) when many but not all ens members show rain, persisting in a few ens members to end of run. Spring snow likely over high ground in the first wet period, possible also in the second one.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl