The biggest plus for all this rain lately will be how lush everyrhing will look once spring growth gets going. Amazed at how richly and darkly green the grass in nearby fields looks lately. 
 

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It looks like it will be a year with sudden changes from above average to near average temperatures, some periods and spells of dry settled weather as always in the South, but I always enjoy it when some wet windy overcast rainy weather comes, but also we often see the NW and North gets the cold weather more often in the November to March time and dates period.  I will be happy to see another 3 months of normal to above average rainfall, but the south will continue to get the best weather at all times of the years, this has been very prevalent indeed.

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WX charts - less retreat of freezing weather or advance of warmth over E Europe than shown yesterday. By week 2 there's a very conventional N-S gradient: Freezing, most of Scandinavia and N Russia; Cool though not far from long-term average for Europe N of the Alps; Mild to warm in the Mediterranean. Week 1 rain for W Britain, France, Spain, Alps and Turkey; week 2 Britain is almost dry (yes you did read that!) and a band of rain settles W-E from Spain to Ukraine.

GFS Op - LP N of Scotland moving S down the N Sea to Denmark 990mb Sun 24th with brief N-lies for Britain. Then an LP from Greenland sliding SE-wards, deepest as it gets to Fastnet 960mb Wed 27th  but sticking there with some quite cool air trapped in its circulation until Sat 30th when it fills quickly and moves on down to Portugal. Pressure then rises from the SW to cover Britain (some NE-lies for SE England at first) and by Sat 6th is centred 1030mb Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS  with the variation that the LP Wed 27th is further out in the Atlantic and has less cold air entrained; but it's still sticking around Mon 1st and not by that stage moving away.

GEFS - temp dropping to cool for a couple of days from tomorrow, mean resuming norm and staying there until start of April in the middle of quite a tight cluster of ens members (in Scotland there are more on the cool side than in England). The usual spread then sets in but op and control suggest some spring warmth from Mon 1st. Rain forecast in all ens members w/b Mon 25th, after that some ens members have some quite heavy rain but most (incl op & control) remain dry. Snow possible for Scottish mountains for a few days from Mon 25th.
 

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Some encouragement from this morning's GFS if you're after drier weather. Frankly I'd be worried for you if you weren't by now! 
Early April sees a steady rise in pressure which is supported by most of the set of ensembles.

It will be interesting to see if;
a. the trend continues
b. it is supported by ECM when it comes into range

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Still a risk of snow early next week. I'm semi tempted to open a short term thread, but the risk of a nothing burger for 99% of people that don't live on a hill is currently a bit too high.

ARPEGE0Z is an example of how this could play out in a way that produces quite widespread snow on Monday.
 

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That has not at all been the case in the past half year! 

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You mean the Express were wrong...?

I'm shocked, I tell ya! 🤣

 

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No absolutely not  a year or mores average rainfall in that time 

Very true and I know many on the coast have had way more than here, not that many miles inland.

In the last year the only month with anything like a "drier than average" tag would be July and that was close to 50mm, Feb 23 at 4mm was the only month that was extremely dry, but more than year ago now of course.

The aquifers are full the brim, obviously overflowing, and the waters from the Pang, Lambourn, Kennet etc cannot get out into the Thames due to its level, so all three are near record levels even with little rain for the last 2 weeks.

 

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The retreat of the cold weather northwards is on again according to this morning's WX. Unfortunately for Britain, Spring warmth is moving N-wards over E Europe and to a lesser extent in the central Mediterranean while it remains cool from Iceland and Norway down across NW Europe. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France, Iberia and the Alps; in week 2 this area shifts E-wards to lie from Italy up to the Baltic, still somewhat damp in Britain - any really dry weather forecast for Britain has disappeared to be replaced by a larger dry area around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - LP moving S to Denmark 995mb tomorrow, brief N-ly for Britain. Troughs from N Atlantic then moving SE-wards past Cornwall but deepening as time goes by and finally sticking 960mb SW Ireland Wed 27th with lots of polar maritime in its circulation. This only slowly moves NE to Norway 995mb Mon 1st but throughout leaving a trough hanging back covering Britain. For the following week, a spell of mostly W-ly zonal weather though pressure is never that high even in the S. 

ECM - starts like GFS but the LP never really clears to Norway and on Mon 1st is a shallow feature 990mb lying along the Channel.

GEFS - cool, soon returning to norm or a little below with fair ens agreement through to Wed 3rd, after which perhaps a little warmer though no common feature in the various runs. Appreciable amounts of rain in w/b Wed 27th, (Mon 25th in N & W) smaller amounts in some runs before and after that.

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Rain and showers throughout the Easter holiday weekend looks pretty set in stone now. At least it will be mild!

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Pretty potent northerly mid April if 12z verifies..

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I hope it disappears from the output soon. The scenario is the coldest on the ensemble suite by the look of things but not totally without support. I would welcome some spring warmth to be honest.

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Oh dear. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

There are a few unpleasantly cold (for the time of year) charts in the output at the moment, not just the GFS op but also the 12z ECM.

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WX temp charts showing the area in the far north affected by the coldest weather still shrinking, but gradually, and Europe becoming milder, but also gradually - below LTA in west, above in east. Any real warmth still stuck in the Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France & Iberia (esp heavy in Portugal), in week 2 for W Britain, France and Norway, some around fringes of Med (not clearing Britain as much as shown yesterday). Very dry area developing around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - current LP in N Sea moving E-ward to Finland, losing identity, and replaced by new low from Greenland reaching S Ireland 985mb Tue 26th sticking there and deepening 960mb Thu 28th, lots of polar maritime in its circulation so expect April showers a week early. This LP stays in place, filling, until Mon 1st when it revives and moves to Biscay 970mb. HP then moves up from the SW to be centred over Holland Thu 4th, with a period of mild but strong SW-lies for Britain though stormy in far NW as deep LPs brush past e.g. 970mb Rockall Sat 6th.

ECM - similar to GFS though LP Mon 1st is more extensive with some quite brisk E-lies for Britain; and no sign of the HP developing in final chart (Wed 3rd)

GEFS - temps soon recovering to norm and staying close to that, sometimes a little above (Mon 1st), sometimes below with good ens agreement to Wed 3rd when wide divergence appears - op & control very mild but a few runs equally colder. Rain peaking Wed 27th - Sat 30th in S, (25th - 29th in N), then another period Mon 1st - Thu 4th (but not even briefly dry in the W) when many but not all ens members show rain, persisting in a few ens members to end of run. Spring snow likely over high ground in the first wet period, possible also in the second one.

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Wouldn't we all! And dry as well.
Not much sign of that in the MO at the moment - unsettled and average, more like.

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Up here at least it seems on the cold side of average, especially in the coming few days. Both the 06z GFS and ICON runs show snow here tomorrow night. I suspect it may be very cold rain/sleet but you never know.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_54_25.png 


 

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We have some GVN (greenland vortex northerly) scenarios on the GFS6Z.

I've coined this term because I'm not sure if this phenomenon has been given a name before, perhaps it has and if anyone has any research on this I'd love to see it. Anyway a GVN is an exceptionally rare event that can cause brutally cold, if short, northerly feeds. The mechanism is this.

- Tropospheric polar vortex forms a wave-1 pattern while being fairly strong. Note this is actually pretty rare; and is most likely outside of winter e.g. late autumn or spring.
- The TPV moves over greenland enhancing the deep cold core low. Low baroclinicity near the surface makes this much stronger at higher latitudes, and near the surface there could even be a shallow high.
- The TPV starts to break down with a deep HP moving in from canada towards greenland with WAA. This pushes the deep cold core low east over the greenland sea
- The deep high from canada rapidly strengthens and expands over the greenland, launching the core core low and basically the entire TPV south towards the UK
- In a race against time it hits the UK before significant cyclogenesis occurs over the surface.

If this happens the upper air temps can be brutally cold. The last time this happened was in April 2021 where -15C T850s hit the northern isles, but it was an indirect hit; some of the ensembles showed 850s as low as -28C hitting shetland. That is not a typo. I have these charts saved somewhere if you don't beleive me.

Anyway GVN showing up on some of the forecasts. Could we see a repeat of April 2021?
 

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ICON12Z showing the GVN

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I'm guessing so is the GFS 18z.

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WX temp charts - the isotherms are rotating anti clockwise about a point somewhere in Iberia. Imagine a set of spokes radiating from there: spoke 1 is a boundary stretching through the Med to the Urals bringing warm weather north; spoke 2 runs across France to the Baltic and N Russia with cool conditions; and beyond that Scotland (yes, Scotland) and N Scandinavia are freezing. Rain is persitent for both the next two weeks for Britain (surprise!), France, Spain and the Alps. Very dry around the Black Sea and the Caspian.

GFS Op - LP moving E to Scandinavia and filling but new LP 985mb Bristol Channel tomorrow (Tue) followed from the NW by deeper and colder LP 955mb SW Ireland Thu 28th. This stays in place, filling 990mb by Tue 2nd and at that stage extending a weak trough across England to Poland. Another LP attack, this time from the N, reaching Scotland Fri 5th (990mb Fair Isle), bringing a fresh source of cold air and producing LP English Channel 980mb Sun 7th dragging in N-lies for all, this area of LP only receding NE-wards slowly Wed 10th. (EDIT - compare yesterday when Britain was forecast to get mild SW-lies at this time!)

FAX - bringing fronts W-E across Britain every day this week, with the 'triple point' over Scotland Tue & Wed,  continuing until Friday when the fronts tend to run S-wards down W Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS but trough Tue 2nd is more focused on Poland followed by a large area of slack LP covering Britain.

GEFS - Plenty of rain this week, briefly less wet around Sun 31st/Mon 1st then more rain on and off in most runs through to Wed 10th. Temps cool at first, a little above norm around the 1st, cooling to the 4th (sooner and more sharply in Scotland) after which wild variation (on 7th in the S control 15C above norm countered by some ens members 10C below). Snow row figures for Inverness 32/33 now, 20/33 at the beginning of April.

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Some big rain spikes and very warm runs appearing. Looks like there could be some active weather in the next few weeks.



 

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Not UK related but looks like Portugal could be washed off the map in the next 2 weeks!

Indeed, but unlike the UK much of Iberia is still in need of a few soakings as you can see from the soil moisture chart. People living in Galicia and Northern Portugal might think differently however!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/soil4 

 

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The greenland vortex northerly (screw it, I'm using the term) is still on the cards according to the GFS6Z. For those that are bored by snow at this time of year, remember the cool spring rules; it can snow inland now! No showers clinging to the coast unable to get more than 5 miles inland at this time of year.

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