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fairweather
25 March 2024 11:48:57
Recent Springs have generally been unusual one way or another in these parts. Most have had at least one short "heat wave" between February and April but also some month long dry and often quite cold spells. This Spring is decidedly different. Generally much, much wetter than average (record breaking in fact) but generally average or below temperatures with little sun to boost temperatures a bit.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Hungry Tiger
25 March 2024 13:27:07

Some big rain spikes and very warm runs appearing. Looks like there could be some active weather in the next few weeks.


UserPostedImage
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



  🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 March 2024 17:48:36

Not UK related but looks like Portugal could be washed off the map in the next 2 weeks!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



And S Spain too
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=18&run=6&time=90&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Not that Cornwall is much better off
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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26 March 2024 08:07:08
WX charts not unlike yesterday morning's, perhaps a little less cold though not as mild in E Europe as shown in yesterday's evening version. In more detail, rather cold from N Britain to the Baltic to far N of Russia; cool from N Spain (week 1 all of Spain is below norm)to the Alps to Poland; mild, even warm in parts through the Mediterranean to Turkey and the Caspian. Rain in week 1 very heavy in Iberia and France, not much better in Britain; in week 2 in much the same areas but extending to the Baltic and Balkans. Any really dry areas well to the east of Europe and beyond.

GFS Op - LP currently over W Britain reinforced by new centre from Greenland, combining 955mb Fastnet Thu 28th with Britain in its returning polar  maritime air but also generating cool S-lies for much of Europe. This LP wanders around close to W Britain, filling, until Mon 1st when it re-shapes itself into a trough from mid-Atlantic to the Balkans with local centre 985mb in the Channel. The trough remains through to Fri 5th with more local centres running up the Channel giving a general E/NE-ly cast to Britain's weather. As the trough wraps up and finally moves away NE-wards there is a new intervention of LP from the north Mon 8th before a ridge of HP from the Azores appears Thu 11th.

ECM - remarkably like GFS to Wed 3rd when the trough splits into two, one part moving E to Latvia 980 mb and losing its identity, the other part in mid Atlantic. The latter takes up a position W of Ireland Fri 5th with mild S-lies for Britain 

GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ensemble agreement, perhaps a little cooler at first, a little milder later in the S, Scotland reverses this. After that, a wide range of outcomes, mostly milder or v mild - the exception is the Op run described above which is cold (Maybe the ECM synoptics should be taken as more typical). Rain, often heavy, in most ens members at most times, little sign of a dry period in the S & W, perhaps a little relief in the N & E at first.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
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27 March 2024 08:24:14
WX temp charts changing from week 1 when the freezing weather in the N was retreating and Europe as whole was generally cool, to week 2 with something of a regional resurgence of the cold weather (v cold N Norway) while at the same time much warmer from S France to the Danube basin. Britain is divided, cold in the N, seasonal norm in the S. Still plenty of rain around - Spain*, Alps*, France, England in week 1; N France*, all of Britain, Germany* & S Baltic week 2. (* particularly heavy).

GFS Op - current LP deepening further 955 mb and retreating a little off SW Ireland tomorrow Thu, before making a circuit of W Britain (and affecting the rest). It's back to SW Ireland, flabbier at 990mb Mon 1st, before becoming part of a broad trough from mid-Atlantic across Britain to the Baltic states (locally deeper from time to time e.g. Thu 4th 985mb Ireland, again Sun 7th). From Tue 9th a brief pressure rise over Britain, but new LP back in position W of Ireland 985mb Fri 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the 'broad trough' is more of a two-centre affair at least to start with, W of Ireland and in the Baltic, with Britain under a col of marginally higher pressure between.

GEFS - ens agreement on temps near norm to Thu 4th*, after which more variation but definitely milder than shown yesterday. Rain in most runs at most times, not dramatically heavy except in W, possibly a little drier around Sat 30th. (* but rather cool and wet for a cluster including op at this date in Scotland and N England; hill snow possible)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Retron
27 March 2024 16:56:52
I'm surprised more isn't being made of tomorrow's storm system.

Down here the GFS has been creeping up (gusts into the low 60s now), as has MetO - gusts to 46 showing now, up from 40 this morning. Most times over the winter it's ended up in the middle, which would mean low 50s, perhaps even mid 50s... enough to cause a bit of disruption, especially now trees are coming into leaf down here.

I've barricaded my neighbour's dodgy fence with wheelie bins... last year his stupid trampoline blew into one of the panels, causing bits to fly off and denting the wooden panelling on my "posh shed". The trampoline is still in his garden, but now on the other side, meaning even more momentum if it gets caught in the wind!
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
27 March 2024 17:17:16
It baffles me why there isn't a yellow out for wind...

...and it turns out there is, just not for Kent.

A deep area of low pressure will bring a spell of very windy weather to parts of southwest and then southern England on Thursday. Gusts of 50 mph are expected quite widely, while some exposed coastal spots may experience gusts of 60 to 70 mph, with large waves also likely. The strong winds will be accompanied by heavy, squally showers with the possibility of hail and thunder in some locations. Hail won't fall everywhere but where it does it can quickly make road surfaces slippery, while surface water and spray are likely to worsen travel conditions rather more widely.

The high-res models show inland gusts into the 60s or 70s in places - HARMONIE, AROME, and even the 3z UKV churned this out this morning.

I've a feeling there will be a LOT of "where did that come from?" comments come Friday morning!

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
NMA
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27 March 2024 18:30:53
Judging by the instability, thunder and lightning right now, I think anything is possible for tomorrow.
The current radar looks let's say interesting. Not model related of course.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Jiries
27 March 2024 20:04:46

It baffles me why there isn't a yellow out for wind...

...and it turns out there is, just not for Kent.

A deep area of low pressure will bring a spell of very windy weather to parts of southwest and then southern England on Thursday. Gusts of 50 mph are expected quite widely, while some exposed coastal spots may experience gusts of 60 to 70 mph, with large waves also likely. The strong winds will be accompanied by heavy, squally showers with the possibility of hail and thunder in some locations. Hail won't fall everywhere but where it does it can quickly make road surfaces slippery, while surface water and spray are likely to worsen travel conditions rather more widely.

The high-res models show inland gusts into the 60s or 70s in places - HARMONIE, AROME, and even the 3z UKV churned this out this morning.

I've a feeling there will be a LOT of "where did that come from?" comments come Friday morning!

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

  Well the wind and rain are no longer special to mentioned as it been attacking us since last year and the nasty pattern changed had been with us erased our Spring, summer and Winter seasons out and this first month of Spring already erased all being replaced with Autumnal weather.  Quite serious if this will not stop and UK end up permanent Faroes, Shetland climate where no summer or winter exist.  Perhaps the islands themselves will be better off than here.
DEW
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28 March 2024 08:11:13
WX week 1 temps staying cool for Europe (albeit this means above average for the east), still cold across the far north including Scotland and warmth for the Mediterranean though not Iberia. In week 2 a significant movement of mild/warm weather north to a line from Portugal -Alps - C Russia but cold still hanging on in the north as before, and quite a narrow band in between. Rain for Britain, France and Baltic coasts in both weeks, plus Spain in week 1, though Scotland is a little drier at first.

GFS Op - deep LP currently near Ireland dominating UK & continental weather, circulating around near the west of Britain until mostly filled Mon 1st when pressure falls across the Baltic and a broad trough establishes from mid-Atlantic to the Baltic States via Britain, winds tending W-ly for England and E-ly for Scotland. This trough persists until Wed 10th with sometimes local deeper centres e.g. 980mb SW Ireland Sat 6th. From Wed 10th the Atlantic end of the trough dominates and moves to N Britain 980mb Fri 12th.

ECM - similar to GFS, if anything the eastern end of that persistent trough is further N, over Finland implying colder weather for Scotland.

GEFS - In the S, temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ens agreement; the main cluster of runs is then mild for a week before dropping back to norm; a slightly drier weekend but otherwise rain frequent and persistent throughout, not too heavy except in the SW.  In Scotland and N England, temps near norm only to Wed 3rd, then a cool spell to Sat 6th before mild as above; not a great deal of rain until Wed 3rd then persistent and often heavy. Hill snow likely around the 3rd.

EDIT - GFS shows jetstream persistent and often strong across N France throughout.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Retron
28 March 2024 10:35:34
Looks like the MetO have belatedly realised there will be damaging winds this afternoon - the yellow warning has now been extended to cover Kent, East Sussex and so forth. Better late than never, I guess, although as I said yesterday... a lot of people will be caught out by this!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Downpour
28 March 2024 13:55:30
Easter weekend looking decent in the SE. Saturday and Sunday warm and springlike, showers dying out through Good Friday.

A turn up for the books?

 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
The Beast from the East
28 March 2024 14:49:49

Looks like the MetO have belatedly realised there will be damaging winds this afternoon - the yellow warning has now been extended to cover Kent, East Sussex and so forth. Better late than never, I guess, although as I said yesterday... a lot of people will be caught out by this!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I am just to north, hopefully nothing too damaging 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

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Quantum
28 March 2024 16:00:04
UserPostedImage
Wow.
We need to take this seriously. Possible disruptive snow event around the 3rd.
Lots of factors need to come into play here, but potential there is.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
28 March 2024 16:12:12

Easter weekend looking decent in the SE. Saturday and Sunday warm and springlike, showers dying out through Good Friday.

A turn up for the books?

 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



I flagged the possibility elsewhere at the start of the week. There has been a reasonably consistent signal, although the devil is of course in the details.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
28 March 2024 16:24:26
All models are going for some kind of snow event in about a week somewhere.

Historically the snow risk used to trend south over time, but it has not done that this winter at all so I'm not going to count on that.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Retron
28 March 2024 17:46:45

I am just to north, hopefully nothing too damaging 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Hope you're avoiding it!

In the end what I expected to happen did indeed happen - MetO raw now has 51 as the strongest gusts (in an hour), GFS ended up at 52. The highest gust recorded at the yacht club a few miles away is 48, but it's relatively sheltered from the SW/SSW.

I'd love to know why the MetO raw so predictably undercooks max gusts. It's done it half a dozen times over winter, and now spring - with usually a whole day of "ninja upgrades" as the winds approach. Similarly GFS always seems to go too high, backing down at the last minute...
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
28 March 2024 18:09:09
GFS ensemble mean is going for lying snow north yorkshire northwards Wednesday-Friday. Amounts vary but typically 1-3cm lower levels, 2-7cm hills, 10-30cm mountains. This would be causing alot of excitement if it was January. Pretty good for an ensemble mean.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Polar Low
28 March 2024 18:28:42

GFS ensemble mean is going for lying snow north yorkshire northwards Wednesday-Friday. Amounts vary but typically 1-3cm lower levels, 2-7cm hills, 10-30cm mountains. This would be causing alot of excitement if it was January. Pretty good for an ensemble mean.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



That is one temperature contrast
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/144h.htm 
 
Quantum
28 March 2024 18:40:09

That is one temperature contrast
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/144h.htm 
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


And constant snow is pretty much the only way to get an ice day at this time of year! I think the record for the latest ice day is something like April 15th.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 March 2024 07:55:54
WX temps downgraded for spring warmth since yesterday, only appearing around the Black Sea/Caspian and extreme S Spain. Otherwise little change over the next two weeks - cool/cold for Scotland and N Scandinavia, on the cool side of norm for the rest of NW Europe. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain week 1, decreasing week 2 and mainly affecting N Spain/S France/Norway with Britain in a damp but not soaking patch between.

GFS Op - current LP continuing its tour of W Britain while filling until Mon 1st when combining with LP in Baltic to form an E-W trough from mid-Atlantic to Sweden. Within this trough distinct LP centres come and go; for Britain, Ireland Wed 3rd, Scotland Fri 5th, Wales Sat 6th, Channel Mon 8th, all 990-1000mb; rather cool NE-lies predominate in the N, milder but not much in the S. From Wed 10th zonal W-lies though rather cool and a brief intrusion of LP 1000mb Sat 13th as it zips locally across Scotland.

ECM -agrees with GFS but with minor differences in LP centres within that trough; Cornwall Wed 3rd, Scotland Sat 6th. The last frame Mon 8th turns the trough into two large areas of cold LP, Greenland and Norway, Britain in a weak col between, with the Greenland LP threatening to extend towards the Bristol Channel.

GEFS - in the S, good agreement of ens members on near-norm at first becoming mild Fri 5th; then a second mild peak for the main cluster is spoilt by a very cold op run before some agreement on near-norm again from Wed 10th. Rain frequent from Mon 1st to Wed 10th, a little drier after that. Scotland (& to less extent N England) temp on norm to Tue 2nd then a big contrast with the S as most ens members dip 6 or 5C BELOW norm until Fri 5th, then the second mild peak and return to norm as above but less agreement. Periods of rain in the same time frame but more sporadic and heavier  when they do occur, snow looking likely in places 3rd-5th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
idj20
29 March 2024 10:58:18

Easter weekend looking decent in the SE. Saturday and Sunday warm and springlike, showers dying out through Good Friday.

A turn up for the books?

 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Apart from Kent where it is likely to be under "nuisance" cloud (copyright Jiries) with useless drizzle (again, copyright Jiries) tomorrow (Saturday). 
Folkestone Harbour. 
tallyho_83
29 March 2024 11:04:36
06z Op run today shows quite another snow event for the south and west @ 276z: - If only....it was in winter. More evaporative cooling? Response to the SSW still?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

UserPostedImage 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
29 March 2024 11:12:10
Easter weekend doesn’t look too bad for many, I’m more bothered by the prospect of wintry weather in the following week up here.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
johncs2016
29 March 2024 11:27:33

Easter weekend doesn’t look too bad for many, I’m more bothered by the prospect of wintry weather in the following week up here.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



That is just like the thing of course given this weekend's upcoming change of the clocks which means that we will have moved into British Summer Time (BST) by this time next week.

In fact, I've lost track of how often we have gone into BST only for our weather to then turn colder with wintry showers, or possibly even some actual snow.

Given that we had very little in the way of snow during the winter, the weather gods will have had a real cheek if that ends up being the outcome next week as a lot of the output is suggesting.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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