WX charts not unlike yesterday morning's, perhaps a little less cold though not as mild in E Europe as shown in yesterday's evening version. In more detail, rather cold from N Britain to the Baltic to far N of Russia; cool from N Spain (week 1 all of Spain is below norm)to the Alps to Poland; mild, even warm in parts through the Mediterranean to Turkey and the Caspian. Rain in week 1 very heavy in Iberia and France, not much better in Britain; in week 2 in much the same areas but extending to the Baltic and Balkans. Any really dry areas well to the east of Europe and beyond.
GFS Op - LP currently over W Britain reinforced by new centre from Greenland, combining 955mb Fastnet Thu 28th with Britain in its returning polar maritime air but also generating cool S-lies for much of Europe. This LP wanders around close to W Britain, filling, until Mon 1st when it re-shapes itself into a trough from mid-Atlantic to the Balkans with local centre 985mb in the Channel. The trough remains through to Fri 5th with more local centres running up the Channel giving a general E/NE-ly cast to Britain's weather. As the trough wraps up and finally moves away NE-wards there is a new intervention of LP from the north Mon 8th before a ridge of HP from the Azores appears Thu 11th.
ECM - remarkably like GFS to Wed 3rd when the trough splits into two, one part moving E to Latvia 980 mb and losing its identity, the other part in mid Atlantic. The latter takes up a position W of Ireland Fri 5th with mild S-lies for Britain
GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 5th with good ensemble agreement, perhaps a little cooler at first, a little milder later in the S, Scotland reverses this. After that, a wide range of outcomes, mostly milder or v mild - the exception is the Op run described above which is cold (Maybe the ECM synoptics should be taken as more typical). Rain, often heavy, in most ens members at most times, little sign of a dry period in the S & W, perhaps a little relief in the N & E at first.
Edited by user
26 March 2024 08:10:17
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Reason: Not specified
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