WX temps downgraded for spring warmth since yesterday, only appearing around the Black Sea/Caspian and extreme S Spain. Otherwise little change over the next two weeks - cool/cold for Scotland and N Scandinavia, on the cool side of norm for the rest of NW Europe. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries incl Britain week 1, decreasing week 2 and mainly affecting N Spain/S France/Norway with Britain in a damp but not soaking patch between.
GFS Op - current LP continuing its tour of W Britain while filling until Mon 1st when combining with LP in Baltic to form an E-W trough from mid-Atlantic to Sweden. Within this trough distinct LP centres come and go; for Britain, Ireland Wed 3rd, Scotland Fri 5th, Wales Sat 6th, Channel Mon 8th, all 990-1000mb; rather cool NE-lies predominate in the N, milder but not much in the S. From Wed 10th zonal W-lies though rather cool and a brief intrusion of LP 1000mb Sat 13th as it zips locally across Scotland.
ECM -agrees with GFS but with minor differences in LP centres within that trough; Cornwall Wed 3rd, Scotland Sat 6th. The last frame Mon 8th turns the trough into two large areas of cold LP, Greenland and Norway, Britain in a weak col between, with the Greenland LP threatening to extend towards the Bristol Channel.
GEFS - in the S, good agreement of ens members on near-norm at first becoming mild Fri 5th; then a second mild peak for the main cluster is spoilt by a very cold op run before some agreement on near-norm again from Wed 10th. Rain frequent from Mon 1st to Wed 10th, a little drier after that. Scotland (& to less extent N England) temp on norm to Tue 2nd then a big contrast with the S as most ens members dip 6 or 5C BELOW norm until Fri 5th, then the second mild peak and return to norm as above but less agreement. Periods of rain in the same time frame but more sporadic and heavier when they do occur, snow looking likely in places 3rd-5th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl